Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2009 NCAA Tournament -- Before Super Regionals About the author, Boyd Nation

ISR-Based Probabilities for 2009 NCAA Tournament -- Before Super Regionals

Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. The algorithm has changed slightly this year to incorporate my recent findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams. 

Reg    Super  Final  Champ  Team

100.0   71.8   24.0   11.1   Texas
100.0   28.2    4.8    1.6   Texas Christian
100.0   86.6   13.1    4.2   Florida
100.0   13.4    0.4    0.0   Southern Mississippi
100.0   72.4   17.4    6.4   North Carolina
100.0   27.6    2.3    0.5   East Carolina
100.0   85.3   35.4   19.2   Arizona State
100.0   14.7    2.7    0.8   Clemson
100.0   93.0   54.5   38.0   Cal State Fullerton
100.0    7.0    0.7    0.2   Louisville
100.0   36.9    4.8    1.7   Arkansas
100.0   63.1    8.1    2.7   Florida State
100.0   50.3    8.9    3.7   Louisiana State
100.0   49.7   11.3    5.7   Rice
100.0   39.3    4.8    1.7   Virginia
100.0   60.7    7.0    2.4   Mississippi
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Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2009 NCAA Tournament -- Before Super Regionals About the author, Boyd Nation