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Publication Date: November 27, 2001
A Different Recruiting Angle
One of the themes that I touched on in my last column on pitcher workloads was that, besides recruiting against each other, college coaches are recruiting for the idea of college baseball as a whole, since talented high school players have a very real choice to make as to whether to go to college or to go on into minor league baseball. Now, career development isn't the only factor involved, and smart coaches know and use that -- to almost anyone, being in college is both a better living standard and a better overall personal development move than playing minor league baseball. However, career development in baseball is certainly a major factor, and it's a good question as to whether, in general, players develop better if they go to college or directly to the minors. I have some ideas about how to study that, but they're going to involve some major amounts of data collection, so I'm not ready to start on them yet.
On the other hand, that doesn't mean we can't have an appropriate amount of fun with the idea. What I want to do this week, just as a quick back of the envelope type of comparison (and, yes, I'm aware that anecdote is not the singular of data), is to look at the major leagues for 2001 and pick two all-star teams. One will be made up of players who played Division I baseball, and the other will be made up of players who went to high school in the United States and went directly to the minor leagues after that. International players and junior college or lower division players can start their own team (and might well win, but they're not part of this discussion).
There are all sorts of problems with this as a serious study -- most players aren't superstars, for example, but still need to have their development studied -- but it'll be a fun exercise (and feel free to write in with players you think I've overlooked), and I could use a little fun this week.
The College Boys (*)
(*) What, I'm the only one watching Black Sheep Squadron reruns on the History Channel?
The composition of these teams will reflect some rather idiosyncratic beliefs of mine on lineup construction (feel free to go write your own column if you want more conventional roles). Most teams are far too nervous about defense, so players tend to end up in easier positions than they could be playing. That means that outfielders are interchangeable and Jim Thome should still be a third baseman, for example. There's no magic to pitching in relief or starting, so I'm going to take the best pitchers available. One concession I'm going to make to the stardom of these players that I wouldn't make on an ordinary team is that there will be no role players here, since salary's not really a consideration.
Player Position Team College 2001 OPS Barry Bonds OF Giants Arizona State 1.378 Luis Gonzalez OF Diamondbacks South Alabama 1.117 Lance Berkman OF Astros Rice 1.050 J. D. Drew OF Cardinals Florida State 1.022 Kevin Millar OF Marlins Lamar 0.931 Jason Giambi 1B/DH A's Long Beach State 1.137 Todd Helton 1B Rockies Tennessee 1.111 Bret Boone 2B Mariners Southern Cal 0.950 Rich Aurilia SS Giants St. John's 0.941 Derek Jeter SS Yankees Michigan 0.857 Phil Nevin 3B Padres Cal State Fullerton 0.976 Troy Glaus 3B Angels UCLA 0.898 Paul Lo Duca C Dodgers Arizona State 0.917 Charles Johnson C Marlins Miami, Florida 0.771 Pitcher Team College 2001 ERA Randy Johnson Diamondbacks Southern Cal 2.49 Mike Mussina Yankees Stanford 3.15 Mark Mulder A's Michigan State 3.45 Matt Morris Cardinals Seton Hall 3.16 Tim Hudson A's Auburn 3.37 Barry Zito A's Southern Cal 3.49 Jamie Moyer Mariners St. Joseph's 3.43 Russ Ortiz Giants Oklahoma 3.29 Roger Clemens Yankees Texas 3.51 Eric Milton Twins Maryland 4.32 Aaron Sele Mariners Washington State 3.60
Blue Collar
Player Position Team 2001 OPS Brian Giles OF Pirates 0.994 Shawn Green OF Dodgers 0.970 Gary Sheffield OF Dodgers 1.000 Cliff Floyd OF Marlins 0.968 Jim Edmonds OF Cardinals 0.974 Albert Pujols 1B/3B Cardinals 1.013 Edgar Martinez DH/1B Mariners 0.966 Jim Thome 1B/3B Indians 1.040 Ray Durham 2B White Sox 0.803 Alex Rodriguez SS Rangers 1.021 Frank Catalanotto SS/2B/OF Rangers 0.881 Chipper Jones 3B Braves 1.032 Damian Miller C Diamondbacks 0.763 Ben Davis C Padres 0.694 Pitcher Team 2001 ERA Curt Schilling Diamondbacks 2.98 Joe Mays Twins 3.16 Mark Buehrle White Sox 3.29 Greg Maddux Braves 3.05 Wade Miller Astros 3.40 John Burkett Braves 3.04 Tom Glavine Braves 3.57 Brad Radke Twins 3.94 Cory Lidle A's 3.59 Kerry Wood Cubs 3.36 Al Leiter Mets 3.31
I had never noticed the paucity of American-born catchers these days before, although Piazza cuts down on that a touch. Ben Davis? Geez. I'm tempted to throw Craig Biggio on as the backup, but catcher's one position where the backup really has to play a lot, and I don't think he could do it at this point.
So, Who Wins?
It's interesting how much I found myself rooting for the college team as I constructed this, although I did my best to make the teams as objectively correct as I could. With that in mind, though, I do think the alumni all-stars win this year, at least. The pitching staffs look to be about even to me, depending on usage patterns -- they're really close in the top three or four spots, the college guys are ahead at five through seven, and the bottom looks a little better for the minor league guys. Since this is one of my major areas of concern, it's good to see it this close.
On the offensive side, though, I think the college guys have a big edge. We'd have to do this each year, of course, to see how distorted this is by Barry Bonds' Big Year, but the only positions at which the minor league guys have an advantage are at short and third, with ARod and the Jones/Pujols/Thome mix. Catcher, first, and the whole outfield appear to be big wins for the college side.
All of this, as I said earlier, proves nothing at all. If anyone wants to actually run these teams through a simulator, of course, I'd love to hear about the results.
Next week, most likely, winter will have hit here (I'm beginning to think we're not going to have one this year), and I'll take a look at the February schedule.
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