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One Last Prediction

Publication Date: May 15, 2001

Their Sixty-Four, Not Mine

I always walk this balance between what is and what should be. This week for the most part I'm going to talk about what is (or at least, what probably will be). Next week as I'm analyzing the field, I'll pay a good bit of attention to what should be. With that note, once around, my good man:

Oh, yeah, the legend for the status column:

I - Already in
A - Certain of an at-large bid
BI - Currently in, but still on the bubble
BO - Currently out, but on the bubble
T - Must win tournament

America East Conference

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Delaware              22-6   41-13    39   93    A      3
Maine                 20-8   36-13   108  153    T
Towson                17-11  35-21    97  156    T
Northeastern          11-17  17-30   188  227    T

Atlantic Coast Conference

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Florida State         20-4   40-15    12   19    I      1
Clemson               17-7   37-18    22   37    I      1
Wake Forest           16-8   37-15    16   29    A      2
Georgia Tech          13-11  39-16    17   32    A      2
Duke                  10-13  23-31   104  133    T
North Carolina         9-15  31-24    33   67    T
Virginia               9-15  24-29    78  123    T
North Carolina State   9-15  27-27    43   87    T
Maryland               4-19  17-36   198  196    T

Big East Conference

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Notre Dame            22-4   45-9     13   31    I      1
Rutgers               18-8   40-13    23   62    A      2
Seton Hall            14-11  29-21    91  143    A      3
Virginia Tech         14-11  27-26   102  137    T

Big South Conference

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Winthrop              18-3   43-12    26   49    A      2
Coastal Carolina      16-4   35-17    45   75    BI     3
Liberty               14-7   32-19    69  104    T
Elon                  12-9   28-25    79  120    T
NC-Asheville           8-12  14-37   247  222    T
High Point             5-14  19-31   197  183    T
Radford                5-16  12-36   238  220    T
Charleston Southern    3-16  13-35   224  207    T

Big Ten Conference

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Ohio State            20-7   41-14    67   70    A      2
Purdue                19-7   32-21    68   81    A      3
Minnesota             19-8   35-19    52   71    A      3
Penn State            15-11  28-27   130  134    T

Big Twelve Conference

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Nebraska              20-8   41-14    25   12    I      1
Texas Tech            19-10  39-16    34   22    A      2
Texas                 19-11  34-22    40   28    A      2
Baylor                17-10  35-20    24   17    A      2
Oklahoma State        16-14  38-18    46   30    BI     3
Texas A&M             15-15  30-26    86   63    T
Oklahoma              13-16  23-31   118   95    T
Iowa State            11-15  23-27   146  105    T

Big West Conference

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Cal State Fullerton   12-3   39-14     1    2    I      1
Cal-Santa Barbara     11-4   37-13    14    5    A      2
Long Beach State      10-5   34-18    11    4    A      3
Cal State Northridge   9-9   31-22    50    23   BO
Cal Poly               6-9   28-24    73    43   BO

Colonial Athletic Association

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

East Carolina         19-2   44-11     8   21    I      1
Va. Commonwealth      12-8   37-15    36   60    A      3
William & Mary        12-9   32-17    54   97    BO
NC-Wilmington         11-9   32-20    47   78    BO
James Madison         10-11  31-21    56  103    T
Old Dominion           6-15  19-35   140  164    T
George Mason           5-15  20-30   126  170    T

Conference USA

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Tulane                21-6   45-9     21    8    I      1
Houston               20-7   29-26    29   39    BI     3
South Florida         16-11  28-27    38   74    BO
Cincinnati            16-11  34-22    76   77    T
Memphis               13-14  31-23    71   73    T
Southern Mississippi  11-16  25-30   111  113    T
NC-Charlotte          10-17  23-29   141  125    T

Mid-Continent Conference

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Oral Roberts          24-1   45-11    84   56    BI     3
Southern Utah         19-9   21-35   236  177    T
Valparaiso            14-10  27-27   195  186    T
Youngstown State      12-15  24-28   240  234    T

Pacific Ten Conference

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Southern California   16-5   36-16     6    3    I      1
Stanford              14-7   39-14     3    1    I      1
California            14-10  33-23    42   18    BI     2
Arizona State         12-9   34-16    18   11    A      2
Oregon State          10-11  30-22    61   27    BO
Arizona                9-12  30-23    80   47    BO

Southeastern Conference

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Georgia               20-10  40-16     9   13    I      1
Louisiana State       18-12  37-18     7   15    I      1
Tennessee             18-12  41-15     4   10    I      1
Mississippi State     17-13  32-21    27   44    BI     2
South Carolina        17-13  41-15     5   16    I      1
Mississippi           17-13  36-18    19   24    A      2
Florida               16-14  33-23    15   36    BO
Auburn                15-15  35-17    10   14    BO

Southland Conference

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Northwestern State    19-8   38-15    60   50    BI     3
Louisiana-Monroe      17-10  34-22    70   66    BO
Southwest Texas St.   15-11  36-20    57   58    T
Texas-Arlington       15-11  33-22    51   57    T
Texas-San Antonio     15-12  29-27   124   88    T
Lamar                 13-14  34-22   123   84    T

Sun Belt Conference

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Middle Tenn. State    17-10  38-14    58   46    A      3
South Alabama         17-10  39-16    28   42    A      2
Fl. International     16-11  40-16    31   53    BI     3
Western Kentucky      14-13  31-25   107  107    T
New Orleans           13-14  23-30    72  112    T
Louisiana Tech        12-14  30-24    82   89    T
Arkansas-Little Rock  12-15  25-22    90  101    T
Arkansas State        12-15  22-34   110  129    T

Trans America Athletic Conference

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Central Florida       22-5   45-11    30   38    A      1
Stetson               19-8   41-13    35   54    A      2
Jacksonville          18-9   34-21    48   82    BI     3
Campbell              17-10  33-19    74   90    BO
Florida Atlantic      14-13  34-22    53   96    T
Troy State            12-15  26-26   149  139    T

West Coast Conference

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Pepperdine            25-5   39-15    37    6    A      2
Gonzaga               17-13  26-25   174   76    T

Western Athletic Conference

Team                  Conf    All    RPI  ISR  Status  Seed

Rice                  23-10  40-17    20    7    I      1
Texas Christian       21-12  32-25    85   48    BI     3
Fresno State          20-13  37-22    81   26    BO
San Jose State        20-13  35-20    83   25    BO

Others

All of these are #4 seeds except for Miami, who is a #1.

Miami, Florida
America East Conference winner
Atlantic Ten Conference winner
Princeton
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference winner
Mid-American Conference winner
Bethune-Cookman
Midwestern Collegiate Conference winner
Missouri Valley Conference winner
Mountain West Conference winner
Maryland-Baltimore County
Ohio Valley Conference winner
Bucknell
Southern Conference winner
Southern

Looking over the numbers, I'm predicting three teams listed as a 'T' above to make it in, all of whom will be #3 or #4 seeds.

The Mistreated

As a quick aside to close with a look at what should be, I'll point out that the teams most likely to be mistreated by the committee are, as usual, on the West Coast -- Cal State Northridge, Fresno State, San Jose State, and Oregon State -- and in the SEC -- Florida and Auburn.

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