| Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Peace in Our Time? Part IV: Parity | About the author, Boyd Nation |
Publication Date: September 26, 2000
Definitions
This is the last in a series that I have agreed to do trying to compile a fairly comprehensive exploration of the evidence for the various sides in the never-ending debate over regional supremacy within the college baseball ranks. This week I begin by looking at the case for parity between the regions.
The case to be made here is that the level of play in the portion of the teams that most folks care about, the top 100 or so, is well-balanced between West and the Southeast, with the Southwest close enough behind that the usual seasonal variations can actually make it the best region on occasion, as might have happened in 1999. The differing number of teams in each region make numeric comparisons difficult, but the top tier of Western, Southeastern, and Southwestern teams in any given year are largely equivalent in the level of play.
A related case is the agnostic view that there's just not enough inter-regional play for us to really know. The good version of this argument stops there; the bad version contains the words, "but it's obvious that ...."
Postseason Problems
Part of the problem is that the postseason format is broken. This means that much of the competition between national powers takes place under less than optimal circumstances, which seem to favor mostly those who have been there before. That leaves us trying to figure out what happened during a fairly short regular season, one which features far too little inter-regional play, and which tends to leave what little play there is clustered at the beginning of the season, where uneven starting dates can cause unusual results.
The 2000 Season
Just as an example of what we're up against, here's the complete list of games between Southeastern and Western teams where both teams are in the ISR top 100 for the 2000 season:
Date ISR Team Score ISR Team Score Site 120 14 Florida 12 48 Hawaii 6 Hawaii 121 14 Florida 10 48 Hawaii 1 Hawaii 122 14 Florida 8 48 Hawaii 7 Hawaii 128 6 Arizona State 30 43 Florida Atlantic 4 ASU 130 6 Arizona State 3 43 Florida Atlantic 2 ASU 204 5 Florida State 11 6 Arizona State 10 ASU 205 6 Arizona State 15 5 Florida State 9 ASU 206 5 Florida State 9 6 Arizona State 7 ASU 211 5 Florida State 11 2 Stanford 4 FSU 212 2 Stanford 8 5 Florida State 6 FSU 213 5 Florida State 13 2 Stanford 1 FSU 218 3 Louisiana State 8 6 Arizona State 4 LSU 218 12 North Carolina 17 25 UCLA 13 UCLA 219 3 Louisiana State 6 6 Arizona State 5 LSU 219 12 North Carolina 6 25 UCLA 4 UCLA 220 6 Arizona State 6 3 Louisiana State 2 LSU 220 12 North Carolina 12 25 UCLA 11 UCLA 225 33 Long Beach State 9 60 Arkansas 8 Arkansas 226 33 Long Beach State 16 60 Arkansas 3 Arkansas 227 33 Long Beach State 8 60 Arkansas 6 Arkansas 303 4 Southern California 9 8 Georgia Tech 2 neutral 304 19 Cal State Fullerton 14 18 Mississippi State 9 CSUF 304 4 Southern California 7 18 Mississippi State 1 neutral 428 26 Miami, Florida 6 33 Long Beach State 3 Miami 429 26 Miami, Florida 12 33 Long Beach State 2 Miami 430 33 Long Beach State 6 26 Miami, Florida 4 Miami 526 16 Alabama 8 29 Nevada 2 neutral 526 27 San Jose State 4 14 Florida 1 neutral 527 16 Alabama 6 29 Nevada 5 neutral 527 2 Stanford 8 16 Alabama 6 neutral 528 16 Alabama 14 2 Stanford 9 Stanford 528 14 Florida 8 27 San Jose State 7 neutral 528 2 Stanford 16 16 Alabama 6 Stanford 529 27 San Jose State 2 14 Florida 1 neutral 602 4 Southern California 7 8 Georgia Tech 2 Georgia Tech 602 3 Louisiana State 8 25 UCLA 2 LSU 603 4 Southern California 6 8 Georgia Tech 3 Georgia Tech 603 3 Louisiana State 14 25 UCLA 8 LSU 609 2 Stanford 6 15 Louisiana-Lafayette 4 neutral 609 7 Clemson 10 27 San Jose State 6 neutral 610 4 Southern California 6 5 Florida State 4 neutral 611 2 Stanford 10 7 Clemson 4 neutral 611 15 Louisiana-Lafayette 6 27 San Jose State 3 neutral 612 3 Louisiana State 10 3 Southern California 4 neutral 614 5 Florida State 3 3 Southern California 2 neutral 615 2 Stanford 19 15 Louisiana-Lafayette 9 neutral 617 3 Louisiana State 6 2 Stanford 5 neutral
If there's a pattern here that favors one region over another, I can't find it. The split goes 26-22 in favor of the Southeast, but there's a slight bias in their favor as more higher-rated Southeastern teams played teams ranked below them by a small bit. Games between top ten teams don't show much more of a pattern, and there we're looking at games from the first weeks of February, which, while they count and can tell you a good bit about team quality, can be a bit hard to judge from.
At this point, I think it's time to stop. I've tried to present reasonable evidence for all sides, although I'm always willing to add more.
| Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Peace in Our Time? Part IV: Parity | About the author, Boyd Nation |