| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2010 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2010 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. The algorithm has changed slightly this year to incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 98.7 93.4 72.3 57.0 Arizona State 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawaii 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 68.9 4.7 1.3 0.5 Arkansas 25.9 1.5 0.3 0.1 Washington State 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Kansas State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grambling State 76.7 53.7 4.5 1.7 Georgia Tech 21.5 10.1 0.3 0.1 Alabama 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 Elon 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mercer 58.1 21.9 1.0 0.3 Auburn 31.8 12.3 0.3 0.1 Clemson 9.4 1.6 0.0 0.0 Southern Mississippi 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jacksonville State 90.9 63.0 8.9 4.0 Coastal Carolina 6.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 College of Charleston 3.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 North Carolina State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Stony Brook 82.6 33.5 2.9 1.0 South Carolina 9.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 Virginia Tech 7.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 The Citadel 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bucknell 75.8 56.9 6.2 2.8 Virginia 23.1 9.8 0.3 0.1 Mississippi 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 St. John's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Virginia Commonwealth 63.2 22.6 1.4 0.5 Oklahoma 23.6 7.1 0.3 0.1 California 12.8 3.4 0.1 0.0 North Carolina 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oral Roberts 76.4 55.8 18.8 6.1 Texas 22.0 8.6 1.4 0.3 Rice 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rider 74.6 30.7 8.2 2.2 Texas Christian 13.8 2.1 0.2 0.0 Baylor 11.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lamar 64.9 38.6 5.3 0.9 Louisville 34.9 17.9 2.2 0.4 Vanderbilt 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Illinois State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 St. Louis 55.7 27.6 3.1 0.5 Florida State 13.4 3.3 0.1 0.0 Connecticut 31.0 12.6 1.7 0.3 Oregon 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Central Connecticut State 70.5 49.3 10.9 2.8 Florida 3.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 Florida Atlantic 26.1 13.5 2.2 0.5 Oregon State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bethune-Cookman 68.2 28.1 4.1 0.7 Miami, Florida 28.0 8.1 0.8 0.1 Texas A&M 3.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 Florida International 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dartmouth 78.4 49.0 19.8 7.8 UCLA 11.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 Louisiana State 10.1 2.1 0.4 0.1 UC Irvine 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Kent State 84.9 42.9 19.6 8.7 Cal State Fullerton 13.9 3.8 0.7 0.1 Stanford 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 New Mexico 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minnesota
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2010 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |