| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2013 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2013 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 99.1 85.8 39.7 26.3 North Carolina 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 Florida Atlantic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Towson 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Canisius 61.5 11.4 1.6 0.5 South Carolina 34.8 2.6 0.2 0.0 Clemson 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Liberty 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 St. Louis 82.1 51.6 7.5 3.0 Oregon 14.4 5.0 0.1 0.0 Rice 3.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 South Dakota State 77.2 36.7 3.4 1.2 North Carolina State 21.7 6.1 0.2 0.0 Mississippi 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 William and Mary 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Binghamton 94.2 86.0 23.8 12.0 Louisiana State 4.3 1.7 0.0 0.0 Louisiana-Lafayette 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 Sam Houston State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jackson State 52.2 8.7 0.4 0.1 Virginia Tech 32.8 2.6 0.1 0.0 Oklahoma 12.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 Coastal Carolina 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Connecticut 89.5 75.1 21.0 11.4 Cal State Fullerton 9.8 4.2 0.2 0.0 Arizona State 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 New Mexico 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Columbia 70.4 18.1 1.8 0.6 UCLA 18.4 1.9 0.1 0.0 Cal Poly 9.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 San Diego 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 San Diego State 95.9 87.9 31.2 15.7 Vanderbilt 3.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 Georgia Tech 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Illinois 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 East Tennessee State 61.4 7.9 0.8 0.1 Louisville 30.1 2.0 0.1 0.0 Miami, Florida 8.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 Oklahoma State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bowling Green State 86.3 70.7 14.9 6.0 Florida State 8.9 4.0 0.1 0.0 Alabama 4.8 1.8 0.0 0.0 Troy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Savannah State 60.1 17.6 0.9 0.1 Indiana 22.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 Austin Peay State 17.7 2.5 0.1 0.0 Florida 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Valparaiso 98.8 83.2 28.5 13.4 Virginia 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 North Carolina-Wilmington 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Elon 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Army 72.4 14.8 1.7 0.4 Mississippi State 16.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 South Alabama 8.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 Mercer 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Central Arkansas 92.0 81.9 20.8 8.8 Oregon State 5.9 2.5 0.0 0.0 Texas A\&M 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 UC Santa Barbara 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Texas-San Antonio 50.8 6.7 0.3 0.0 Kansas State 41.9 8.2 0.5 0.1 Arkansas 3.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Bryant 3.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Wichita State
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2013 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |