Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2013 NCAA Tournament About the author, Boyd Nation

ISR-Based Probabilities for 2013 NCAA Tournament

Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.

Reg    Super  Final  Champ  Team

99.1   85.8   39.7   26.3   North Carolina
 0.9    0.2    0.0    0.0   Florida Atlantic
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Towson
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Canisius

61.5   11.4    1.6    0.5   South Carolina
34.8    2.6    0.2    0.0   Clemson
 1.9    0.0    0.0    0.0   Liberty
 1.7    0.0    0.0    0.0   St. Louis

82.1   51.6    7.5    3.0   Oregon
14.4    5.0    0.1    0.0   Rice
 3.5    0.6    0.0    0.0   San Francisco
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   South Dakota State

77.2   36.7    3.4    1.2   North Carolina State
21.7    6.1    0.2    0.0   Mississippi
 1.1    0.0    0.0    0.0   William and Mary
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Binghamton

94.2   86.0   23.8   12.0   Louisiana State
 4.3    1.7    0.0    0.0   Louisiana-Lafayette
 1.5    0.5    0.0    0.0   Sam Houston State
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Jackson State

52.2    8.7    0.4    0.1   Virginia Tech
32.8    2.6    0.1    0.0   Oklahoma
12.1    0.5    0.0    0.0   Coastal Carolina
 2.9    0.0    0.0    0.0   Connecticut

89.5   75.1   21.0   11.4   Cal State Fullerton
 9.8    4.2    0.2    0.0   Arizona State
 0.7    0.2    0.0    0.0   New Mexico
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Columbia

70.4   18.1    1.8    0.6   UCLA
18.4    1.9    0.1    0.0   Cal Poly
 9.1    0.4    0.0    0.0   San Diego
 2.1    0.0    0.0    0.0   San Diego State

95.9   87.9   31.2   15.7   Vanderbilt
 3.7    1.8    0.1    0.0   Georgia Tech
 0.4    0.1    0.0    0.0   Illinois
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   East Tennessee State

61.4    7.9    0.8    0.1   Louisville
30.1    2.0    0.1    0.0   Miami, Florida
 8.5    0.3    0.0    0.0   Oklahoma State
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Bowling Green State

86.3   70.7   14.9    6.0   Florida State
 8.9    4.0    0.1    0.0   Alabama
 4.8    1.8    0.0    0.0   Troy
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Savannah State

60.1   17.6    0.9    0.1   Indiana
22.1    3.6    0.0    0.0   Austin Peay State
17.7    2.5    0.1    0.0   Florida
 0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0   Valparaiso

98.8   83.2   28.5   13.4   Virginia
 1.1    0.2    0.0    0.0   North Carolina-Wilmington
 0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0   Elon
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Army

72.4   14.8    1.7    0.4   Mississippi State
16.3    1.4    0.1    0.0   South Alabama
 8.0    0.3    0.0    0.0   Mercer
 3.3    0.0    0.0    0.0   Central Arkansas

92.0   81.9   20.8    8.8   Oregon State
 5.9    2.5    0.0    0.0   Texas A\&M
 2.0    0.6    0.0    0.0   UC Santa Barbara
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Texas-San Antonio

50.8    6.7    0.3    0.0   Kansas State
41.9    8.2    0.5    0.1   Arkansas
 3.7    0.1    0.0    0.0   Bryant
 3.6    0.1    0.0    0.0   Wichita State
Google

Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2013 NCAA Tournament About the author, Boyd Nation