| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2014 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2014 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 84.9 65.8 22.5 13.3 Oregon State 7.5 2.4 0.2 0.1 Nevada-Las Vegas 7.6 3.0 0.3 0.1 UC Irvine 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 North Dakota State 65.7 20.5 4.2 1.9 Oklahoma State 13.6 2.4 0.2 0.1 Nebraska 20.7 5.9 0.8 0.3 Cal State Fullerton 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Binghamton 68.7 42.7 12.0 6.1 Louisiana State 27.3 11.6 1.8 0.7 Houston 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 Bryant 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Southeastern Louisiana 45.1 19.0 4.4 2.0 Rice 46.9 24.2 6.8 3.5 Texas 8.0 2.1 0.2 0.1 Texas A&M 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 George Mason 80.0 63.4 20.9 11.4 Florida State 15.9 7.5 0.6 0.2 Alabama 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 Kennesaw State 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Georgia Southern 57.4 19.0 2.5 1.0 Louisville 26.0 6.7 0.7 0.2 Kentucky 13.1 2.5 0.1 0.0 Kansas 3.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Kent State 70.8 40.9 9.1 4.4 Indiana 11.5 2.8 0.2 0.0 Indiana State 17.7 4.9 0.4 0.1 Stanford 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Youngstown State 65.6 36.0 9.4 4.5 Vanderbilt 27.7 13.8 2.5 1.1 Oregon 6.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 Clemson 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Xavier 70.1 50.4 14.4 7.7 Florida 17.4 6.6 0.6 0.2 Long Beach State 8.4 2.7 0.2 0.0 North Carolina 4.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 College of Charleston 62.3 25.1 3.8 1.3 Miami, Florida 34.7 14.0 2.0 0.7 Texas Tech 3.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 Columbia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bethune-Cookman 80.3 54.2 16.5 9.0 Texas Christian 11.5 3.9 0.4 0.1 Dallas Baptist 8.1 2.6 0.3 0.1 Sam Houston State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Siena 61.0 28.5 8.4 4.2 Cal Poly 21.0 5.9 0.9 0.4 Arizona State 17.3 4.9 0.9 0.3 Pepperdine 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cal State Sacramento 73.0 46.8 13.5 7.1 Virginia 22.0 8.8 1.4 0.5 Arkansas 4.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 Liberty 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bucknell 72.0 38.3 10.0 5.0 South Carolina 15.4 3.1 0.2 0.0 Maryland 9.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 Old Dominion 3.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 Campbell 71.9 49.6 16.4 8.5 Louisiana-Lafayette 16.0 5.4 0.6 0.2 Mississippi State 12.2 4.4 0.7 0.2 San Diego State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jackson State 59.6 29.0 6.7 2.8 Mississippi 28.2 9.0 1.7 0.7 Washington 11.2 2.6 0.2 0.0 Georgia Tech 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jacksonville State
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2014 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |