| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2015 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2015 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 91.0 75.0 33.7 21.1 UCLA 4.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 Mississippi 4.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 Maryland 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 CSU Bakersfield 45.4 11.4 1.8 0.6 UC Santa Barbara 24.9 5.1 0.6 0.2 Southern California 17.8 3.8 0.5 0.1 Virginia 11.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 San Diego State 77.4 52.2 11.5 5.1 Missouri State 10.2 3.8 0.3 0.1 Iowa 12.4 4.8 0.3 0.1 Oregon 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Canisius 51.2 24.9 4.3 1.6 Oklahoma State 28.7 9.5 0.8 0.2 Arkansas 14.7 4.0 0.3 0.1 Oral Roberts 5.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 St. John's 76.9 50.6 14.7 7.6 Florida 20.4 8.3 1.2 0.4 Florida Atlantic 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 South Florida 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Florida A&M 67.7 33.1 7.3 3.5 Florida State 22.4 5.9 0.8 0.2 College of Charleston 9.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 Auburn 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mercer 79.7 46.2 11.1 4.8 Miami, Florida 19.4 4.8 0.3 0.1 East Carolina 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 Columbia 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Florida International 60.4 33.3 7.6 3.3 Dallas Baptist 33.4 14.4 2.2 0.9 Oregon State 6.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 Texas 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Virginia Commonwealth 91.8 79.7 25.9 14.3 Louisiana State 5.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 North Carolina-Wilmington 3.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 Tulane 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lehigh 52.7 11.5 1.5 0.5 Houston 34.8 5.3 0.5 0.1 Rice 11.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Houston Baptist 89.4 62.3 24.9 13.6 Texas Christian 10.0 2.2 0.2 0.1 North Carolina State 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Stony Brook 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sacred Heart 80.7 32.1 12.4 6.3 Texas A&M 10.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 Coastal Carolina 9.3 1.8 0.2 0.1 California 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Texas Southern 78.1 54.0 9.5 3.9 Louisville 12.7 4.6 0.2 0.0 Bradley 7.8 2.2 0.1 0.0 Michigan 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Morehead State 51.5 24.0 2.4 0.7 Cal State Fullerton 29.0 9.8 0.8 0.2 Arizona State 16.6 4.8 0.2 0.0 Clemson 3.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 Pepperdine 83.3 53.9 11.1 5.2 Illinois 9.2 2.8 0.2 0.0 Notre Dame 7.2 1.9 0.1 0.0 Wright State 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ohio 68.6 34.1 9.3 4.7 Vanderbilt 16.7 3.8 0.3 0.1 Radford 11.6 3.2 0.2 0.0 Indiana 3.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 Lipscomb
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2015 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |