Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2015 NCAA Tournament About the author, Boyd Nation

ISR-Based Probabilities for 2015 NCAA Tournament

Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.

Reg    Super  Final  Champ  Team

91.0   75.0   33.7   21.1   UCLA
 4.8    2.0    0.2    0.0   Mississippi
 4.0    1.6    0.1    0.0   Maryland
 0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0   CSU Bakersfield

45.4   11.4    1.8    0.6   UC Santa Barbara
24.9    5.1    0.6    0.2   Southern California
17.8    3.8    0.5    0.1   Virginia
11.8    1.1    0.1    0.0   San Diego State

77.4   52.2   11.5    5.1   Missouri State
10.2    3.8    0.3    0.1   Iowa
12.4    4.8    0.3    0.1   Oregon
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Canisius

51.2   24.9    4.3    1.6   Oklahoma State
28.7    9.5    0.8    0.2   Arkansas
14.7    4.0    0.3    0.1   Oral Roberts
 5.3    0.7    0.0    0.0   St. John's

76.9   50.6   14.7    7.6   Florida
20.4    8.3    1.2    0.4   Florida Atlantic
 2.7    0.5    0.0    0.0   South Florida
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Florida A&M

67.7   33.1    7.3    3.5   Florida State
22.4    5.9    0.8    0.2   College of Charleston
 9.1    1.6    0.1    0.0   Auburn
 0.8    0.0    0.0    0.0   Mercer

79.7   46.2   11.1    4.8   Miami, Florida
19.4    4.8    0.3    0.1   East Carolina
 0.8    0.1    0.0    0.0   Columbia
 0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0   Florida International

60.4   33.3    7.6    3.3   Dallas Baptist
33.4   14.4    2.2    0.9   Oregon State
 6.0    1.3    0.1    0.0   Texas
 0.2    0.0    0.0    0.0   Virginia Commonwealth

91.8   79.7   25.9   14.3   Louisiana State
 5.0    1.6    0.1    0.0   North Carolina-Wilmington
 3.2    0.9    0.0    0.0   Tulane
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Lehigh

52.7   11.5    1.5    0.5   Houston
34.8    5.3    0.5    0.1   Rice
11.7    1.0    0.0    0.0   Louisiana-Lafayette
 0.8    0.0    0.0    0.0   Houston Baptist

89.4   62.3   24.9   13.6   Texas Christian
10.0    2.2    0.2    0.1   North Carolina State
 0.6    0.0    0.0    0.0   Stony Brook
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Sacred Heart

80.7   32.1   12.4    6.3   Texas A&M
10.1    1.6    0.2    0.0   Coastal Carolina
 9.3    1.8    0.2    0.1   California
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Texas Southern

78.1   54.0    9.5    3.9   Louisville
12.7    4.6    0.2    0.0   Bradley
 7.8    2.2    0.1    0.0   Michigan
 1.4    0.2    0.0    0.0   Morehead State

51.5   24.0    2.4    0.7   Cal State Fullerton
29.0    9.8    0.8    0.2   Arizona State
16.6    4.8    0.2    0.0   Clemson
 3.0    0.4    0.0    0.0   Pepperdine

83.3   53.9   11.1    5.2   Illinois
 9.2    2.8    0.2    0.0   Notre Dame
 7.2    1.9    0.1    0.0   Wright State
 0.3    0.0    0.0    0.0   Ohio

68.6   34.1    9.3    4.7   Vanderbilt
16.7    3.8    0.3    0.1   Radford
11.6    3.2    0.2    0.0   Indiana
 3.1    0.3    0.0    0.0   Lipscomb
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Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2015 NCAA Tournament About the author, Boyd Nation