| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2016 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2016 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 92.6 80.3 38.9 24.9 Florida 6.6 2.5 0.2 0.1 Georgia Tech 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Connecticut 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bethune-Cookman 63.7 12.0 2.1 0.8 Florida State 26.1 4.3 0.5 0.2 Southern Mississippi 10.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 South Alabama 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Alabama State 74.7 56.7 8.8 4.3 Louisiana State 16.1 6.4 0.4 0.1 Rice 8.0 2.3 0.1 0.0 Southeastern Louisiana 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Utah Valley 63.4 24.2 2.3 0.7 North Carolina State 28.6 8.9 0.7 0.2 Coastal Carolina 7.6 1.4 0.0 0.0 St. Mary's 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Navy 95.0 64.9 25.3 15.5 Texas A&M 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 Minnesota 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 Wake Forest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Binghamton 74.1 31.2 8.7 4.5 Texas Christian 14.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 Arizona State 9.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 Gonzaga 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Oral Roberts 64.4 46.0 6.4 2.5 Texas Tech 26.7 13.1 0.8 0.2 Dallas Baptist 8.8 3.4 0.1 0.0 New Mexico 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fairfield 68.8 31.4 4.1 1.4 Virginia 15.1 2.5 0.0 0.0 Bryant 15.3 3.7 0.1 0.0 East Carolina 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 William and Mary 91.6 63.4 29.3 15.1 Louisville 4.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 Ohio State 4.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 Wright State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Western Michigan 77.1 31.8 11.5 6.0 Vanderbilt 15.9 2.3 0.3 0.1 UC Santa Barbara 6.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 Washington 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Xavier 74.8 40.4 6.2 2.0 Clemson 18.5 5.4 0.4 0.1 Oklahoma State 6.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 Nebraska 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Western Carolina 84.7 50.1 12.0 5.4 South Carolina 8.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 North Carolina-Wilmington 7.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 Duke 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rhode Island 75.3 48.9 13.8 6.5 Miami, Florida 16.8 4.9 0.4 0.1 Florida Atlantic 8.0 1.9 0.1 0.0 Long Beach State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Stetson 77.9 39.6 8.9 3.5 Mississippi 16.1 4.2 0.3 0.1 Tulane 4.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 Boston College 1.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 Utah 70.6 54.3 12.1 4.6 Mississippi State 16.8 8.7 0.7 0.2 Cal State Fullerton 9.9 3.1 0.2 0.0 Louisiana Tech 2.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 Southeast Missouri State 57.8 19.8 2.0 0.5 Louisiana-Lafayette 33.1 11.6 1.4 0.4 Arizona 9.0 2.0 0.1 0.0 Sam Houston State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Princeton
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2016 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |