| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2017 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2017 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 99.2 91.6 52.3 37.1 Oregon State 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Nebraska 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Yale 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Holy Cross 56.3 4.1 0.7 0.2 Clemson 34.3 4.0 0.7 0.3 Vanderbilt 8.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 St. John's 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 North Carolina-Greensboro 75.7 58.4 11.5 5.8 Stanford 19.2 10.0 0.9 0.3 Cal State Fullerton 5.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 Brigham Young 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sacramento State 41.9 13.7 1.4 0.5 Long Beach State 31.8 9.9 0.8 0.3 Texas 19.0 5.3 0.4 0.1 UCLA 7.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 San Diego State 84.3 61.3 13.7 7.2 Louisiana State 9.7 3.5 0.1 0.0 Southeastern Louisiana 6.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 Rice 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Texas Southern 62.2 25.5 2.9 1.2 Southern Mississippi 22.6 5.1 0.4 0.1 Mississippi State 13.7 2.8 0.1 0.0 South Alabama 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Illinois-Chicago 67.8 47.9 7.8 3.8 Texas Tech 28.6 13.6 1.7 0.6 Arizona 3.6 1.1 0.0 0.0 Sam Houston State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Delaware 67.4 31.9 4.2 1.6 Florida State 23.2 4.6 0.2 0.0 Central Florida 7.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 Auburn 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Tennessee Tech 89.6 75.6 23.9 10.1 North Carolina 2.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 Florida Gulf Coast 7.9 2.9 0.3 0.0 Michigan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Davidson 49.6 10.5 1.3 0.3 Houston 24.3 4.6 0.5 0.1 Baylor 23.3 5.5 0.5 0.1 Texas A&M 2.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Iowa 89.5 70.1 21.6 9.7 Louisville 10.1 3.9 0.2 0.0 Oklahoma 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Xavier 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Radford 65.2 20.7 3.5 0.9 Kentucky 16.3 2.3 0.1 0.0 Indiana 18.5 2.9 0.2 0.0 North Carolina State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ohio 85.9 67.6 18.4 7.9 Florida 13.8 6.0 0.4 0.1 South Florida 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bethune-Cookman 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Marist 66.7 20.5 2.4 0.5 Wake Forest 19.1 3.8 0.3 0.0 West Virginia 14.3 1.9 0.1 0.0 Maryland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Maryland-Baltimore County 75.0 57.7 18.6 8.4 Texas Christian 22.9 13.3 3.0 1.1 Virginia 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 Dallas Baptist 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Central Connecticut State 68.8 23.7 4.4 1.5 Arkansas 17.1 3.1 0.2 0.0 Missouri State 11.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 Oklahoma State 2.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Oral Roberts
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2017 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |