| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2018 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2018 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 85.0 67.2 25.7 14.6 Florida 6.1 1.8 0.1 0.0 Jacksonville 8.9 2.9 0.3 0.1 Florida Atlantic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Columbia 57.2 16.2 3.0 1.0 North Carolina State 37.9 11.5 1.9 0.6 Auburn 4.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 Northeastern 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Army 53.0 28.6 4.8 1.7 Georgia 23.8 8.1 0.7 0.2 Duke 22.1 5.9 0.5 0.1 Troy 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Campbell 57.9 37.2 9.7 4.5 Texas Tech 37.0 19.2 4.2 1.7 Louisville 3.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 Kent State 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 New Mexico State 77.1 59.8 21.5 11.3 Mississippi 13.6 6.5 1.0 0.3 Tennessee Tech 8.9 3.3 0.4 0.1 Missouri State 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 St. Louis 41.7 11.3 1.6 0.5 Texas 22.9 5.2 0.6 0.2 Indiana 35.4 13.8 3.7 1.6 Texas A&M 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Texas Southern 76.9 57.5 14.1 6.7 Arkansas 14.4 6.1 0.7 0.2 Southern Mississippi 8.5 3.4 0.3 0.1 Dallas Baptist 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oral Roberts 59.2 23.0 4.3 1.6 East Carolina 27.3 8.4 0.7 0.2 South Carolina 8.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 Ohio State 5.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 North Carolina-Wilmington 82.0 64.0 24.3 14.4 Stanford 7.8 2.7 0.3 0.1 Baylor 8.6 3.4 0.5 0.1 Cal State Fullerton 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 Wright State 74.3 26.3 6.9 3.1 Coastal Carolina 15.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 Connecticut 10.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 LIU-Brooklyn 68.0 45.5 10.4 5.1 Florida State 22.0 8.1 0.9 0.3 Mississippi State 9.4 2.3 0.1 0.0 Oklahoma 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Samford 69.6 33.6 6.4 2.8 Clemson 22.7 8.8 1.0 0.4 Vanderbilt 7.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 St. John's 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Morehead State 80.8 67.6 30.7 19.8 Oregon State 14.7 7.2 1.3 0.5 Louisiana State 4.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 San Diego State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Northwestern State 48.6 11.9 1.8 0.7 Minnesota 46.4 11.3 2.6 1.0 UCLA 4.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 Gonzaga 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Canisius 77.6 54.6 8.6 3.3 North Carolina 10.4 3.2 0.1 0.0 Purdue 11.9 4.8 0.3 0.1 Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 North Carolina A&T 57.6 23.9 2.4 0.8 Stetson 28.6 9.3 0.6 0.2 South Florida 13.7 4.2 0.3 0.1 Oklahoma State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hartford
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2018 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |