Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2024 NCAA Tournament About the author, Boyd Nation

ISR-Based Probabilities for 2024 NCAA Tournament

Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.

Reg    Super  Final  Champ  Team

92.2   80.3   34.9   24.4   Tennessee
 7.1    3.6    0.5    0.2   Southern Mississippi
 0.7    0.1    0.0    0.0   Indiana
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Northern Kentucky

54.3    8.3    1.4    0.6   East Carolina
42.4    7.5    1.0    0.4   Wake Forest
 1.6    0.0    0.0    0.0   Virginia Commonwealth
 1.7    0.0    0.0    0.0   Evansville

75.5   44.7    7.3    3.6   Florida State
16.1    5.5    0.3    0.1   Alabama
 7.8    2.0    0.1    0.0   Central Florida
 0.7    0.0    0.0    0.0   Stetson

50.5   25.2    2.8    1.1   Oklahoma
42.4   21.2    2.7    1.2   Duke
 7.2    1.5    0.0    0.0   Connecticut
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Oral Roberts

72.3   60.9   16.4   10.2   North Carolina
25.8   16.2    2.6    1.2   Louisiana State
 1.8    0.4    0.0    0.0   Wofford
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   LIU-Brooklyn

36.3    7.8    0.5    0.2   Arizona
49.9   12.9    1.7    0.7   Dallas Baptist
12.0    1.8    0.1    0.0   West Virginia
 1.8    0.1    0.0    0.0   Grand Canyon

87.0   64.6   21.6   13.1   Arkansas
 9.9    2.5    0.1    0.0   Louisiana Tech
 3.1    0.5    0.0    0.0   Kansas State
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Southeast Missouri State

75.3   26.8    5.3    2.8   Virginia
21.7    5.4    0.7    0.3   Mississippi State
 3.0    0.3    0.0    0.0   St. John's
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Pennsylvania

73.3   52.1   16.0    7.2   Kentucky
24.0   10.2    1.6    0.4   Indiana State
 2.7    0.5    0.0    0.0   Illinois
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Western Michigan

67.7   30.5    7.9    2.6   Oregon State
29.9    6.6    0.7    0.2   UC Irvine
 1.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Nicholls State
 1.4    0.0    0.0    0.0   Tulane

78.4   53.7   12.9    5.1   Georgia
 7.3    2.3    0.1    0.0   North Carolina-Wilmington
14.1    4.6    0.3    0.1   Georgia Tech
 0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0   Army

61.6   25.7    3.3    0.8   North Carolina State
32.6   13.1    1.7    0.4   South Carolina
 5.7    0.7    0.0    0.0   James Madison
 0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0   Bryant

81.4   69.3   29.2   14.0   Texas A&M
 5.6    2.0    0.1    0.0   Louisiana-Lafayette
13.0    6.0    0.9    0.2   Texas
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Grambling State

57.0   14.5    2.7    0.7   UC Santa Barbara
23.8    5.5    0.6    0.2   San Diego
19.0    2.7    0.3    0.1   Oregon
 0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0   Fresno State

63.7   39.6    8.7    3.5   Clemson
27.7   14.2    3.0    1.2   Vanderbilt
 8.6    2.4    0.2    0.0   Coastal Carolina
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   High Point

70.5   35.7    8.8    3.2   Oklahoma State
14.6    4.4    0.5    0.1   Nebraska
14.9    3.7    0.4    0.1   Florida
 0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0   Niagara
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Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2024 NCAA Tournament About the author, Boyd Nation