| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2025 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2025 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 89.2 68.9 28.2 14.9 Vanderbilt 8.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 Louisville 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 East Tennessee State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Wright State 54.1 16.1 3.4 1.2 Southern Mississippi 37.7 11.3 1.9 0.8 Alabama 7.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 Miami, Florida 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Columbia 66.3 53.4 18.2 9.3 Oregon State 30.0 19.2 4.9 2.1 Texas Christian 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 Southern California 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 St. Mary's 63.2 20.0 2.9 1.1 Florida State 18.1 3.6 0.3 0.1 Northeastern 18.7 2.8 0.3 0.1 Mississippi State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bethune-Cookman 74.5 45.0 8.0 3.4 Auburn 23.0 6.9 0.4 0.1 North Carolina State 2.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Stetson 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Central Connecticut State 61.9 29.8 6.1 2.8 Coastal Carolina 36.3 17.8 3.7 1.3 Florida 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 East Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fairfield 73.7 50.0 13.6 6.8 North Carolina 23.8 11.4 1.3 0.4 Oklahoma 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 Nebraska 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Holy Cross 55.9 23.0 4.4 1.8 Oregon 31.9 12.1 1.8 0.6 Arizona 12.2 3.1 0.3 0.1 Cal Poly 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Utah Valley 87.0 65.0 26.3 16.6 Texas 8.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 Texas-San Antonio 4.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 Kansas State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Houston Christian 62.3 21.2 4.8 1.9 UCLA 29.4 9.2 1.9 0.7 UC Irvine 8.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 Arizona State 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fresno State 67.9 43.3 9.2 4.0 Georgia 21.4 8.5 0.7 0.2 Duke 10.8 3.0 0.2 0.0 Oklahoma State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Binghamton 59.0 30.0 4.4 1.9 Mississippi 31.7 13.6 1.9 0.6 Georgia Tech 8.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 Western Kentucky 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Murray State 75.5 53.6 17.5 10.7 Arkansas 20.7 8.7 1.4 0.5 Kansas 3.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 Creighton 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 North Dakota State 77.5 33.3 8.2 4.3 Tennessee 14.4 2.6 0.2 0.1 Wake Forest 7.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 Cincinnati 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Miami, Ohio 79.3 57.4 16.8 9.4 Louisiana State 20.6 10.4 1.3 0.4 Dallas Baptist 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rhode Island 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Arkansas-Little Rock 57.8 21.2 3.3 1.2 Clemson 31.4 9.7 1.3 0.4 West Virginia 10.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 Kentucky 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 South Carolina-Upstate
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2025 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |