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The Proposed New RPI

Publication Date: July 31, 2011

Last week, the NCAA Baseball Committee announced a change to the RPI formula, pending the presumed rubber stamp of approval by the Competition Cabinet or whoever it is that approves these things. The change will reflect a change to the basketball RPI from a few years ago (a change that has been largely disastrous in basketball, to the point where the basketball selection committee now just routinely ignores the RPI for the most part) to attempt to account for scheduling practices by penalizing home wins. In baseball, the magnitude is to be that a home win will count as .7 of a win (and a road loss the same magnitude), while a road win will be worth 1.3 wins (with a home loss at the same magnitude). Since this accounts more thoroughly for the value of a road win, the bonus and penalty system will be dropped.

To be clear, there's nothing wrong at all with the idea of a properly sized adjustment for home field advantage. The problem is that they have the magnitude set much too high in an attempt to use the RPI to drive behavior. The home winning percentage in conference games is always right around 55% for each season. It follows pretty quickly that the correct adjustment would be a 1.1/.9 pair.

Paul Kislanko has already put up good analysis and numbers on the subject, but here's a quick table showing everyone's position (as of selection time, which is why this differs from Paul's numbers) under the old system, the new one, and, just for kicks, under a 1.1/.9 based system. For the most part, the teams that move the most aren't that interesting, since who really cares if Tennessee moves from #120 to #150, but there are some teams in the at large range that are greatly affected; for example, Dallas Baptist drops 15 places, while St. John's moves up 19. On the other hand, the poster children for the "EEEVUL Scheduling Practices" claims, LSU and Texas, are virtually unchanged, so this is probably not going to be a panacea, even on the political front.

Team Old New New
(1.1)
Air Force 229 236 229
Akron 258 255 258
Alabama 35 44 37
Alabama A&M 298 298 298
Alabama State 294 296 295
Alabama-Birmingham 70 71 71
Albany 237 220 235
Alcorn State 211 186 206
Appalachian State 134 141 136
Arizona 25 24 24
Arizona State 9 10 10
Arkansas 14 13 13
Arkansas State 123 143 129
Arkansas-Little Rock 156 157 159
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 286 287 286
Army 186 187 188
Auburn 42 50 44
Austin Peay State 119 126 123
Ball State 239 234 240
Baylor 28 39 33
Belmont 73 68 70
Bethune-Cookman 120 122 132
Binghamton 207 183 201
Boston College 136 119 130
Bowling Green State 257 254 255
Bradley 213 214 211
Brigham Young 129 112 133
Brown 231 222 233
Bryant 177 161 174
Bucknell 178 163 175
Buffalo 279 277 279
Butler 272 276 276
Cal Poly 99 107 103
Cal State Bakersfield 52 69 62
Cal State Fullerton 13 11 14
Cal State Northridge 222 231 221
Cal State Sacramento 234 229 234
California 44 42 42
Campbell 256 267 262
Canisius 220 205 216
Centenary 276 279 278
Central Arkansas 164 172 167
Central Connecticut State 196 202 195
Central Florida 18 22 19
Central Michigan 133 110 119
Charleston Southern 139 148 142
Chicago State 296 295 296
Cincinnati 145 153 144
Clemson 7 7 7
Cleveland State 274 274 274
Coastal Carolina 40 40 38
College of Charleston 64 76 66
Columbia 199 199 197
Connecticut 46 37 41
Coppin State 297 297 297
Cornell 265 258 263
Creighton 29 20 23
Dallas Baptist 45 60 56
Dartmouth 167 154 166
Davidson 223 239 226
Dayton 195 193 192
Delaware 155 146 150
Delaware State 273 273 271
Duke 118 145 124
East Carolina 27 32 30
East Tennessee State 33 36 36
Eastern Illinois 241 224 237
Eastern Kentucky 255 260 256
Eastern Michigan 122 104 113
Elon 49 43 48
Evansville 126 116 120
Fairfield 203 188 199
Fairleigh Dickinson 287 286 288
Florida 3 3 3
Florida A&M 295 294 294
Florida Atlantic 51 61 52
Florida Gulf Coast 108 127 116
Florida International 24 23 26
Florida State 4 5 5
Fordham 148 136 140
Fresno State 21 17 18
Furman 149 168 155
Gardner-Webb 90 92 87
George Mason 248 257 249
George Washington 263 262 261
Georgetown 205 209 208
Georgia 17 15 16
Georgia Southern 80 77 77
Georgia State 117 134 125
Georgia Tech 8 8 8
Gonzaga 72 56 67
Grambling State 260 261 259
Hartford 292 291 291
Harvard 282 278 281
Hawaii 67 81 63
High Point 166 176 171
Hofstra 206 216 213
Holy Cross 179 174 179
Houston 58 59 59
Houston Baptist 264 268 267
IPFW 277 272 272
Illinois 135 120 128
Illinois State 61 62 61
Illinois-Chicago 215 212 219
Indiana 146 144 148
Indiana State 165 160 162
Iona 254 238 253
Iowa 187 192 190
Jackson State 284 283 285
Jacksonville 47 46 46
Jacksonville State 152 156 152
James Madison 60 51 51
Kansas 100 115 104
Kansas State 41 47 47
Kennesaw State 98 102 92
Kent State 38 30 40
Kentucky 110 133 115
LaSalle 176 159 170
Lafayette 249 249 250
Lamar 116 142 131
LeMoyne 224 197 209
Lehigh 233 242 232
Liberty 86 80 83
Lipscomb 214 243 224
Long Beach State 65 65 65
Long Island 198 195 200
Longwood 244 252 243
Louisiana State 26 28 25
Louisiana Tech 131 121 121
Louisiana-Lafayette 77 91 84
Louisiana-Monroe 182 200 186
Louisville 97 101 98
Loyola Marymount 101 98 100
Maine 161 138 161
Manhattan 107 67 97
Marist 106 90 101
Marshall 192 198 191
Maryland 109 123 117
Maryland-Baltimore County 288 290 290
Maryland-Eastern Shore 299 299 299
Massachusetts 238 235 239
McNeese State 141 167 158
Memphis 113 129 109
Mercer 56 58 58
Miami, Florida 16 19 15
Miami, Ohio 153 135 145
Michigan 226 233 231
Michigan State 83 63 74
Middle Tennessee State 200 210 203
Minnesota 127 114 118
Mississippi 39 48 43
Mississippi State 30 33 29
Mississippi Valley State 270 265 270
Missouri 68 75 72
Missouri State 62 55 57
Monmouth 114 97 108
Morehead State 278 285 280
Mount St. Mary's 281 282 284
Murray State 266 269 265
Navy 189 194 185
Nebraska 59 73 60
Nevada 174 177 176
Nevada-Las Vegas 82 100 93
New Jersey Tech 293 293 293
New Mexico 132 137 135
New Mexico State 160 170 163
New Orleans 289 288 289
New York Tech 280 281 277
Niagara 283 280 283
Nicholls State 150 165 156
Norfolk State 267 270 266
North Carolina 1 1 1
North Carolina A&T 285 284 282
North Carolina Central 300 300 300
North Carolina State 32 38 32
North Carolina-Asheville 247 244 246
North Carolina-Charlotte 76 78 76
North Carolina-Greensboro 96 106 90
North Carolina-Wilmington 102 117 105
North Dakota 291 292 292
North Dakota State 251 253 254
North Florida 130 118 122
Northeastern 232 226 230
Northern Colorado 261 259 257
Northern Illinois 180 171 180
Northwestern 202 196 198
Northwestern State 169 169 172
Notre Dame 157 158 154
Oakland 250 230 248
Ohio 227 227 225
Ohio State 154 155 151
Oklahoma 22 18 17
Oklahoma State 36 41 34
Old Dominion 128 147 137
Oral Roberts 88 89 91
Oregon 53 54 53
Oregon State 31 25 28
Pacific 209 213 215
Penn State 103 95 106
Pennsylvania 243 247 244
Pepperdine 170 191 177
Pittsburgh 140 140 134
Portland 185 182 193
Prairie View A&M 246 246 247
Presbyterian 201 207 202
Princeton 162 128 160
Purdue 124 94 112
Quinnipiac 259 256 260
Radford 112 103 110
Rhode Island 74 57 64
Rice 11 12 11
Richmond 172 178 168
Rider 115 105 111
Rutgers 168 164 169
Sacred Heart 84 70 86
Sam Houston State 79 83 80
Samford 69 72 73
San Diego 173 180 173
San Diego State 163 173 165
San Francisco 93 82 94
San Jose State 125 124 127
Santa Clara 230 251 236
Savannah State 290 289 287
Seattle 240 241 241
Seton Hall 55 49 54
Siena 188 175 184
South Alabama 95 109 99
South Carolina 6 6 6
South Carolina-Upstate 218 217 217
South Dakota State 158 131 147
South Florida 94 108 102
Southeast Missouri State 143 139 141
Southeastern Louisiana 57 52 55
Southern 217 218 218
Southern California 89 96 89
Southern Illinois 159 132 149
Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 181 179 181
Southern Mississippi 20 21 20
Southern Utah 245 245 245
St. Bonaventure 228 223 223
St. John's 54 35 49
St. Joseph's 221 211 210
St. Louis 175 185 178
St. Mary's 191 189 189
St. Peter's 268 264 269
Stanford 15 16 21
Stephen F. Austin State 92 93 96
Stetson 23 26 22
Stony Brook 81 64 79
Temple 269 266 268
Tennessee 121 152 126
Tennessee Tech 208 225 220
Tennessee-Martin 225 237 227
Texas 12 14 12
Texas A&M 10 9 9
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 87 84 82
Texas Christian 19 29 27
Texas Southern 262 263 264
Texas State 37 34 35
Texas Tech 48 53 50
Texas-Arlington 105 111 107
Texas-Pan American 271 275 275
Texas-San Antonio 147 151 153
The Citadel 197 221 207
Toledo 216 208 214
Towson 184 181 182
Troy 50 45 45
Tulane 75 99 81
UC Davis 212 215 212
UC Irvine 43 31 39
UC Riverside 111 113 114
UC Santa Barbara 137 149 146
UCLA 34 27 31
Utah 104 86 95
Utah Valley 210 203 204
Valparaiso 236 219 238
Vanderbilt 5 4 4
Villanova 235 232 228
Virginia 2 2 2
Virginia Commonwealth 193 204 194
Virginia Military 91 85 88
Virginia Tech 78 87 78
Wagner 242 248 242
Wake Forest 66 66 69
Washington 183 190 183
Washington State 63 79 68
West Virginia 151 166 157
Western Carolina 194 206 196
Western Illinois 253 240 252
Western Kentucky 85 88 85
Western Michigan 190 184 187
Wichita State 71 74 75
William and Mary 171 162 164
Winthrop 138 150 139
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 252 250 251
Wofford 219 228 222
Wright State 144 130 143
Xavier 142 125 138
Yale 204 201 205
Youngstown State 275 271 273

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Boyd's World-> Filing Cabinet-> The Proposed New RPI About the author, Boyd Nation