Expected Runs Tables for NCAA Division I
The tables below were created from analysis of play-by-play data for roughly
93% of all D1 games from 2005 to 2008. An update was then done for the
2011 and 2012 seasons to measure the impact of the new bats.
The first table represents the average runs scored after the given
situation occurred.
2005-2008
| Outs |
|
0 |
|
1 |
|
2 |
| Empty |
|
0.72 |
|
0.38 |
|
0.14 |
| 1st |
|
1.19 |
|
0.71 |
|
0.30 |
| 2nd |
|
1.52 |
|
0.91 |
|
0.42 |
| 1st and 2nd |
|
1.94 |
|
1.21 |
|
0.58 |
| 3rd |
|
1.76 |
|
1.18 |
|
0.48 |
| 1st and 3rd |
|
2.17 |
|
1.43 |
|
0.64 |
| 2nd and 3rd |
|
2.39 |
|
1.61 |
|
0.68 |
| Loaded |
|
2.74 |
|
1.85 |
|
0.91 |
|
|
2011-2012
| Outs |
|
0 |
|
1 |
|
2 |
| Empty |
|
0.63 |
|
0.32 |
|
0.12 |
| 1st |
|
1.07 |
|
0.63 |
|
0.26 |
| 2nd |
|
1.39 |
|
0.82 |
|
0.38 |
| 1st and 2nd |
|
1.79 |
|
1.10 |
|
0.52 |
| 3rd |
|
1.67 |
|
1.14 |
|
0.45 |
| 1st and 3rd |
|
2.06 |
|
1.36 |
|
0.61 |
| 2nd and 3rd |
|
2.30 |
|
1.56 |
|
0.68 |
| Loaded |
|
2.69 |
|
1.79 |
|
0.89 |
|
The second table presents the percentage of the time that a team will score
at least one run from a given situation:
2005-2008
| Outs |
|
0 |
|
1 |
|
2 |
| Empty |
|
35% |
|
20% |
|
09% |
| 1st |
|
52% |
|
34% |
|
17% |
| 2nd |
|
71% |
|
49% |
|
27% |
| 1st and 2nd |
|
72% |
|
51% |
|
29% |
| 3rd |
|
87% |
|
71% |
|
32% |
| 1st and 3rd |
|
89% |
|
70% |
|
34% |
| 2nd and 3rd |
|
89% |
|
73% |
|
33% |
| Loaded |
|
89% |
|
71% |
|
39% |
|
|
2011-2012
| Outs |
|
0 |
|
1 |
|
2 |
| Empty |
|
32% |
|
18% |
|
07% |
| 1st |
|
49% |
|
32% |
|
15% |
| 2nd |
|
70% |
|
47% |
|
25% |
| 1st and 2nd |
|
71% |
|
49% |
|
27% |
| 3rd |
|
89% |
|
73% |
|
32% |
| 1st and 3rd |
|
89% |
|
70% |
|
34% |
| 2nd and 3rd |
|
89% |
|
73% |
|
32% |
| Loaded |
|
90% |
|
72% |
|
39% |
|
My apologies for the earlier incorrect data, which was posted for about
two hours on 8/9/2012. I had managed to overwrite the old data with an
advanced copy of the new data, which confused the analysis quite a bit.
It's now fairly simple; offense is down, adjust your tactics accordingly.