| Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> The 2003 Conference Races | About the author, Boyd Nation |
Publication Date: May 6, 2003
This is one of those annual columns that I do, so I'll keep the introduction short. Pennant races are better than playoffs, at any level of baseball. They're more dramatic, they last longer, and they're more fun. See last year's column if you need more verbiage like that. This year, I'm doing things a bit differently, though; I'm going to present the standings with a couple of analysis columns for each conference without commentary. Doing them all is because I've come to realize that they all matter a lot, since that self-contained conference is the measuring stick for all but the very top programs. The lack of commentary is because there's only one of me, and, frankly, I'm not at my best when I'm just reading the numbers to you anyway like my nine-year-old reading the newspaper I just finished to me.
A word about the probability numbers here. I've used a probability table based on ISR gaps before, but I'm trying a new function here; I think it works pretty well based on the larger amounts of game data I've accumulated. Essentially the odds of the home team winning a particular game are
(Home ISR - Visiting ISR) * .02 + .55
as far as I can tell from five year's of data. Obviously, this goes off the rails once you get more than 25 ISR points apart, but those games are rare enough that I can safely ignore them for conference play most of the time. I suspect the function goes non-linear that close to the edge.
The probability numbers here are based on summing the odds of each possible number of wins for the contending teams; they should represent a pretty good guide for how optimistic to be about a particular team's chances. I've tried to catch mutual exclusion cases (both teams can't lose the same game), but I might have missed one or two along the way; those numbers are just there for a general idea anyway. In a few cases, I left off a team that hasn't been mathematically eliminated, so the numbers don't always sum to 100. I'm also not bothering with the possibility of rainouts; at some point, you just have to draw the line. I didn't bother with probabilities for conferences that don't have most of the teams with two three-game series left; I'll put it in a note on those.
America East
W L Remaining
Maine 12 4 @Stony Brook, Vermont
Vermont 9 3 @Binghamton, @Northeastern, @Maine
Stony Brook 10 6 Maine, Hartford
Northeastern 8 8 Vermont, Binghamton
The most likely outcome is for Vermont to sweep Binghamton this weekend and put it away; that's around a 70% chance.
ACC
W L Remaining Probability
Florida State 13 5 @Maryland, @Duke 94
NCSU 14 7 @Georgia Tech 3
Georgia Tech 12 6 @Virginia, NCSU 3
Atlantic Sun
W L Remaining Probability
Florida Atlantic 23 7 Stetson 91
Stetson 18 9 UCF, @FAU 9
Atlantic 10 East
W L Remaining Probability
Massachusetts 12 6 St. Joseph's 86
Rhode Island 14 7 @Temple 14
Atlantic 10 West
W L Remaining Probability
Richmond 17 3 @Duquesne 100
Big East
W L Remaining Probability
Rutgers 15 4 Notre Dame, @Villanova 43
West Virginia 14 4 Villanova, @BC 46
Notre Dame 14 4 @Rutgers, @Virginia Tech 11
Big South
W L Remaining Probability
Winthrop 11 3 @High Point, @Radford 76
Coastal Carolina 9 4 Charleston So., UNC-A 24
Big 10
W L Remaining
Minnesota 19 3 @Iowa, Ohio State
Ohio State 15 9 Michigan, @Minnesota
Northwestern 12 9 @Michigan, @Indiana
Four-game series here, but Minnesota is a prohibitive favorite by now.
Big 12
W L Remaining Probability
Texas 18 6 Texas A&M 67
Nebraska 15 6 Oklahoma State, Baylor 31
Texas A&M 14 7 Kansas, @Texas 2
Big West
W L Remaining Probability
Long Beach State 12 3 UC Riverside, @CSUF 13
UC Riverside 11 4 @LBSU, UC Irvine 31
CSUF 11 4 UC Irvine, LBSU 56
CAA American
W L Remaining Probability
UNC-Wilmington 13 5 James Madison 97
James Madison 9 5 @UNCW, Old Dominion 3
CAA Colonial
W L Remaining Probability
VCU 17 3 none 100
Conference USA
W L Remaining Probability
Southern Miss 18 6 South Florida, @Houston 32
Texas Christian 18 6 @UNC-Charlotte, Louisville 58
Tulane 17 7 @Louisville, East Carolina 8
Houston 16 8 @Memphis, USM 2
Horizon
W L Remaining
Illinois-Chicago 12 4 @Detroit, UW-M
Butler 10 6 @Cleveland State, Detroit
UW-M 9 7 YSU, @UI-C
Youngstown State 11 9 @UW-M
Four-game series here, but this is an interesting race, since Butler has the favorable schedule, but two games is probably too much to make up.
Ivy League Gehrig
W L Remaining Probability
Princeton 15 5 none 100
Ivy League Rolfe
W L Remaining Probability
Harvard 11 9 none 100
MAAC
W L Remaining Probability
LeMoyne 17 2 Niagara, Siena 99
Marist 16 5 @Siena, @Iona 1
MAC Eastern
W L Remaining
Kent State 13 3 Miami (OH), Buffalo
Miami, Ohio 15 5 @Kent State, Akron
Four-game series here, but Kent State is a decided favorite at home (61% for any given game), so their chances are really good at this point.
MAC Western
W L Remaining
Western Michigan 15 9 Ball State
Eastern Michigan 12 8 Northern Illinois, @Ohio
Northern Illinois 9 7 @EMU, CMU
There are no heavy favorites among the remaining series, which makes it most likely that Western Michigan's lead will hold up.
Mid-Continent
W L Remaining
Oral Roberts 11 1 @Oakland, Western Illinois
Oakland 7 5 ORU, @Southern Utah
Western Illinois 7 5 Chicage State, @ORU
It's a nice, orderly progression here, as Oral Roberts is at least an 85% favorite in any conference game this year. Kind of take the suspense out of things. Nice scheduling, though.
MEAC Northern
W L Remaining Probability
Delaware State 9 0 none 100
MEAC Southern
W L Remaining Probability
Bethune-Cookman 11 5 none 100
Missouri Valley
W L Remaining Probability
SW Missouri State 17 9 @Illinois State
Southern Illinois 16 10 Wichita State
Wichita State 13 11 @SIU, Evansville
This is more interesting than it looks at first glance, since Wichita State is a prohibitive favorite against Evansville. SMS's two rainouts against Bradley could be significant, as they can still win with one less victory than WSU, but the odds were in their favor in those games anyway. I've only run it partway by hand, but call it 65% for SMS, 30% for WSU, and some potential crumbs for SIU if everything falls right.
Mountain West
W L Remaining Probability
Nevada-Las Vegas 20 4 @New Mexico, Utah 98
New Mexico 16 8 UNLV, @San Diego State 2
NEC
W L Remaining Probability
CCSU 17 6 @Wagner 99
St. Francis 15 8 Monmouth 1
OVC
W L Remaining Probability
Tennessee Tech 10 4 @Eastern Illinois, APSU 31
Austin Peay 9 4 @Eastern Ky, @Tenn Tech 5
SEMO 9 5 Morehead State, @Murray State 63
Murray State 8 6 UT-Martin, SEMO 1
PAC-10
W L Remaining
Stanford 13 5 @California, UCLA
Arizona State 10 5 @Oregon State, @Washington, Arizona
Arizona 11 7 Oregon State, @Arizona State
It's too early to call this one, but Stanford's remaining schedule makes it pretty close to a foregone conclusion; there's some chance that Cal bothers them, but not much chance of the sweep it would take to make it interesting.
Patriot
W L Remaining Probability
Bucknell 15 5 none 100
SEC Eastern
W L Remaining Probability
South Carolina 13 11 @Alabama, Georgia 64
Florida 11 12 @Mississippi, Kentucky 34
Tennessee 10 14 Arkansas, @Vanderbilt 1
Vanderbilt 10 14 @Kentucky, Tennessee 1
SEC Western
W L Remaining Probability
Louisiana State 16 7 Auburn, @Arkansas 55
Auburn 15 9 @LSU, Mississippi 30
Mississippi State 14 9 @Georgia, Alabama 15
Southern
W L Remaining Probability
Western Carolina 19 5 Appalachian State, @CofC 96
UNC-Greensboro 15 9 Citadel, @Davidson 2
The Citadel 15 9 @UNC-G, VMI 2
SWAC East
W L Remaining Probability
Miss. Valley State 22 6 none 100
SWAC West
W L Remaining Probability
Southern 31 1 none 100
Sun Belt
W L Remaining Probability
New Mexico State 15 6 @USA 55
South Alabama 12 6 NMSU, @UL-L 40
Louisiana-Lafayette 11 7 @Arkansas State, USA 5
West Coast Coast
W L Remaining Probability
West Coast Coast
W L Remaining Probability
Pepperdine 19 5 @St. Mary's, @Gonzaga 95
Santa Clara 17 7 Gonzaga, St. Mary's 5
West Coast West
W L Remaining Probability
San Diego 15 12 @Portland 97
San Francisco 15 12 @Loyola Marymount 3
WAC
W L Remaining
Rice 19 2 @Nevada, @San Jose State, Fresno State
Nevada 15 5 Rice, Fresno State, @Louisiana Tech
Call it 80% Rice, but that's actually more interesting than anyone expected it to be at this point.
Pitch Count Watch
Rather than keep returning to the subject of pitch counts and pitcher usage in general too often for my main theme, I'm just going to run a standard feature down here where I point out potential problems; feel free to stop reading above this if the subject doesn't interest you. This will just be a quick listing of questionable starts that have caught my eye -- the general threshold for listing is 120 actual pitches or 130 estimated, although short rest will also get a pitcher listed if I catch it. Don't blame me; I'm just the messenger.
| Date | Team | Pitcher | Opponent | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | AB | BF | Pitches | ||||||||||||
| Apr 27 | Virginia Military | Phil Hendrix | Wofford | 7.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 33 | 123 | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | Oklahoma State | Scott Baker | Missouri | 9.0 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 32 | 143 | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | Houston | Brad Sullivan | Louisville | 8.0 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 35 | 125 | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | South Florida | Jon Uhl | Texas Christian | 8.2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 33 | 129 | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | Texas Christian | Clayton Jerome | South Florida | 9.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 36 | 127 | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | Akron | Frank Mendoza | Kent State | 8.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 30 | 121 | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | Marshall | Grant Harper | Miami, Ohio | 9.0 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 41 | 131 | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | Western Michigan | Brad Mumma | Bowling Green State | 8.1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 35 | 38 | 162 (*) | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | Bowling Green State | Kyle Knoblauch | Western Michigan | 9.1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 38 | 149 (*) | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | Bradley | Collin Walker | Northern Iowa | 9.0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 32 | 34 | 132 | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | Southern Illinois | Jake Alley | Creighton | 7.2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 38 | 137 | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | Creighton | Tom Oldham | Southern Illinois | 9.0 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 37 | 121 | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | Wichita State | Mike Pelfrey | Southwest Missouri State | 8.1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 32 | 35 | 125 | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | Southwest Missouri State | Chad Mulholland | Wichita State | 7.1 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 33 | 121 | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | Mississippi State | Paul Maholm | Louisiana State | 7.2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 34 | 129 | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | Alabama | Brent Carter | Tennessee | 8.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 32 | 35 | 151 (*) | ||||||||||||
| May 2 | College of Charleston | Matt Soale | North Carolina-Greensboro | 8.0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 34 | 132 | ||||||||||||
| May 3 | Baylor | Sean Walker | Kansas State | 8.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 32 | 126 | ||||||||||||
| May 3 | Old Dominion | Justin Verlander | William and Mary | 9.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 35 | 140 | ||||||||||||
| May 3 | Hofstra | D. Huth | Delaware | 9.0 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 41 | 151 (*) | ||||||||||||
| May 3 | North Carolina-Charlotte | Justin Brown | Alabama-Birmingham | 9.0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 37 | 130 (*) | ||||||||||||
| May 3 | Alabama-Birmingham | Jon Burgett | North Carolina-Charlotte | 7.2 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 37 | 130 (*) | ||||||||||||
| May 3 | Rider | James Hoey | Fairfield | 9.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 37 | 146 (*) | ||||||||||||
| May 3 | Iona | Marty Hand | St. Peter's | 9.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 36 | 130 (*) | ||||||||||||
| May 3 | Arizona | Sean Rierson | California | 9.0 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 36 | 133 | ||||||||||||
| May 3 | Mississippi State | Alan Johnson | Louisiana State | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 30 | 128 | ||||||||||||
| May 3 | Georgia Southern | Dennis Dove | The Citadel | 7.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 35 | 125 | ||||||||||||
| May 3 | College of Charleston | Reid Price | North Carolina-Greensboro | 9.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 34 | 136 | ||||||||||||
| May 4 | Temple | Mike Caron | Fordham | 9.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 38 | 130 (*) | ||||||||||||
| May 4 | Siena | Jeremy Cabot | Canisius | 9.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 35 | 122 | ||||||||||||
| May 4 | Western Michigan | Keith Perez | Bowling Green State | 8.1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 35 | 145 (*) | ||||||||||||
| May 4 | Tennessee Tech | Dusty Eubanks | Eastern Kentucky | 9.0 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 37 | 37 | 144 (*) | ||||||||||||
| May 4 | Washington State | Aaron MacKenzie | Washington | 9.0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 36 | 146 (*) | ||||||||||||
| May 4 | Louisiana State | Nate Bumstead | Mississippi State | 8.2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 36 | 136 | ||||||||||||
| May 6 | Massachusetts | Mike Crane | Siena | 10.0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 35 | 45 | 149 | ||||||||||||
| May 6 | Delaware | Ryan Dulaney | Maryland-Baltimore County | 9.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 36 | 135 (*) | ||||||||||||
| May 7 | Dayton | Dylan Hickey | Ball State | 9.0 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 39 | 145 | ||||||||||||
| May 7 | Kansas | Pat Holmes | Wichita State | 9.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 38 | 157 | ||||||||||||
| May 7 | Portland | Josh Roberts | Washington | 7.2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 37 | 139 (*) | ||||||||||||
| May 8 | North Carolina A&T | C. Summers | Coppin State | 9.0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 40 | 144 (*) | ||||||||||||
| May 8 | Coppin State | Miranda | North Carolina A&T | 8.0 | 17 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 45 | 152 (*) |
(*) Pitch count is estimated.
The Hendrix correction is based on an actual pitch count and shows a really interesting start.
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| Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> The 2003 Conference Races | About the author, Boyd Nation |