| Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Smart Stats for 2002, Part III: The Defense | About the author, Boyd Nation |
Publication Date: August 20, 2002
Defensive Efficiency
This week I want to end up a three-part series on smart stats by taking a look at defense. Defensive stats are, in many ways, the weakest leg of the hitting-pitching-defense tripod. Errors are far too subjective (and range-dependent) to be very useful, and that essentially takes out the most used historical stat, fielding percentage. There are a few modern stats which attempt to measure individual fielding, with zone rating and defensive average being the best-known of them; they're also viewed with some skepticism by knowledgeable analysts, although they're better than nothing. They also require far more data than is available for college ball.
There is, however, one measure which is seeming to be fairly useful at the team rather than player level. It was first suggested by Bill James in one of the old Statistical Abstracts and is called defensive efficiency. There are several versions floating about, but the basic idea is simple -- what percentage of balls in play (not strikeouts or home runs, essentially) are turned into outs? This is obviously park-dependent, but other than that it turns out to be remarkably robust otherwise.
The basic formula is just this:
H - HR
DE = 1 - --------------
AB - HR - SO
At the major league level, this works really well. The one area of concern I have about it at the college level is that official scoring tends to be much more inconsistent at the college level, so the omission of errors, which tends to even out at the pro level, does make a difference here. The problem with including errors is that not all errors lead to extra baserunners, so teams with aggressive outfielder, for example, can lose a bit. For this report, I'm going to show a ranking both with and without errors included and let you make your own judgments about the value. To my untrained eye, the version with the errors included looks a bit more reliable at this point. The version listed above is called EFF1 below; the version with the errors is EFF2.
The Extremes
EFF1 EFF2 Team 1 0.714 45 0.627 Marist 2 0.711 1 0.669 Texas 3 0.708 47 0.627 Duquesne 4 0.705 148 0.596 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 5 0.705 10 0.644 Houston 6 0.703 32 0.631 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 7 0.703 28 0.633 Monmouth 8 0.703 2 0.663 North Carolina-Wilmington 9 0.702 5 0.657 Nebraska 10 0.701 17 0.638 East Carolina
Here we see the effect of the official scorer. The most extreme case here, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, had 117 errors in only 42 games. On the other hand, there's a reasonable chance that half of those might have been called hits elsewhere (I'm all in favor of tough scoring, in general; I'm just advocating for consistency here), and the #148 ranking looks much more likely to be accurate to me. And the other end:
263 0.611 262 0.539 Eastern Kentucky 264 0.610 270 0.500 LaSalle 265 0.610 254 0.551 Fairleigh Dickinson 266 0.607 242 0.557 Quinnipiac 267 0.603 256 0.550 New Mexico 268 0.601 271 0.490 Coppin State 269 0.598 265 0.528 St. Peter's 270 0.593 264 0.534 Canisius 271 0.587 267 0.519 Charleston Southern 272 0.580 269 0.506 Wagner
You'll notice from that last ranking that there were 14 teams I couldn't find data for, the bane of my existence.
The Full List
If you're going to skip to your team, and I know most of you will, be sure to read below the list; there are a couple of interesting things down there.
EFF1 EFF2 Team 246 0.626 246 0.556 Air Force 253 0.623 214 0.571 Akron 50 0.684 35 0.630 Alabama 87 0.672 219 0.569 Alabama A&M 26 0.689 129 0.600 Alabama State 234 0.632 235 0.561 Alabama-Birmingham 57 0.682 121 0.602 Albany 116 0.664 203 0.575 Alcorn State 232 0.633 234 0.562 Appalachian State 118 0.664 100 0.607 Arizona 97 0.669 67 0.617 Arizona State 69 0.678 36 0.630 Arkansas 78 0.676 73 0.616 Arkansas State 167 0.653 194 0.578 Arkansas-Little Rock 4 0.705 148 0.596 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 17 0.696 84 0.612 Army 42 0.685 11 0.643 Auburn 83 0.674 85 0.612 Austin Peay State 74 0.677 120 0.602 Ball State 95 0.669 104 0.606 Baylor 222 0.639 188 0.582 Belmont 102 0.668 88 0.611 Bethune-Cookman 80 0.675 49 0.626 Binghamton 13 0.698 44 0.627 Birmingham-Southern 172 0.652 224 0.567 Boston College 185 0.648 134 0.599 Bowling Green State 201 0.645 237 0.561 Bradley 215 0.641 193 0.579 Brigham Young 143 0.660 150 0.596 Brown 239 0.631 220 0.568 Bucknell 225 0.636 243 0.557 Buffalo 149 0.658 105 0.606 Butler 257 0.617 257 0.544 C. W. Post 90 0.671 50 0.626 Cal Poly 63 0.680 37 0.630 Cal State Fullerton 123 0.663 118 0.603 Cal State Northridge 196 0.646 174 0.588 Cal State Sacramento 82 0.675 51 0.625 Cal-Irvine 178 0.650 151 0.596 Cal-Santa Barbara 66 0.679 30 0.631 California 182 0.650 182 0.585 Campbell 270 0.593 264 0.534 Canisius 109 0.666 172 0.588 Centenary 84 0.673 107 0.606 Central Connecticut State 68 0.678 89 0.611 Central Florida 179 0.650 217 0.569 Central Michigan 271 0.587 267 0.519 Charleston Southern 241 0.629 206 0.574 Chicago State 51 0.683 19 0.636 Cincinnati 53 0.682 16 0.639 Clemson 27 0.689 135 0.599 Cleveland State 34 0.687 26 0.633 Coastal Carolina 207 0.642 202 0.575 College of Charleston 214 0.641 229 0.563 Columbia 205 0.643 183 0.584 Connecticut 268 0.601 271 0.490 Coppin State 211 0.642 179 0.585 Cornell 199 0.645 165 0.590 Creighton 93 0.669 81 0.613 Dartmouth 252 0.624 253 0.552 Davidson 217 0.640 233 0.562 Dayton 171 0.652 141 0.598 Delaware 153 0.658 201 0.576 Delaware State 212 0.641 199 0.576 Detroit Mercy 183 0.649 175 0.587 Drexel 202 0.644 166 0.589 Duke 3 0.708 47 0.627 Duquesne 10 0.701 17 0.638 East Carolina 235 0.631 210 0.572 East Tennessee State 105 0.667 110 0.605 Eastern Illinois 263 0.611 262 0.539 Eastern Kentucky 236 0.631 221 0.568 Eastern Michigan 35 0.686 41 0.629 Elon 138 0.661 70 0.616 Evansville 228 0.635 232 0.562 Fairfield 265 0.610 254 0.551 Fairleigh Dickinson 14 0.698 9 0.646 Florida 157 0.657 112 0.605 Florida Atlantic 112 0.665 160 0.591 Florida International 43 0.685 22 0.636 Florida State 120 0.663 153 0.596 Fordham 137 0.661 86 0.612 Fresno State 125 0.663 155 0.595 Furman 58 0.682 59 0.622 George Mason 24 0.691 25 0.634 George Washington 248 0.625 247 0.556 Georgetown 184 0.649 143 0.597 Georgia 151 0.658 127 0.600 Georgia Southern 85 0.672 64 0.621 Georgia State 39 0.686 33 0.631 Georgia Tech 227 0.636 171 0.588 Gonzaga 148 0.658 263 0.534 Grambling State 218 0.640 204 0.574 Hartford 174 0.651 195 0.578 Harvard 226 0.636 185 0.584 Hawaii 193 0.647 215 0.570 Hawaii-Hilo 238 0.631 207 0.574 High Point 181 0.650 222 0.568 Hofstra 79 0.676 132 0.599 Holy Cross 5 0.705 10 0.644 Houston 25 0.689 15 0.639 Illinois 132 0.661 157 0.594 Illinois State 64 0.680 93 0.610 Illinois-Chicago 96 0.669 90 0.611 Indiana 72 0.677 99 0.607 Indiana State 170 0.652 230 0.563 Iona 168 0.652 168 0.588 Iowa 229 0.635 260 0.540 Jackson State 18 0.695 34 0.631 Jacksonville 200 0.645 208 0.573 Jacksonville State 98 0.669 60 0.622 James Madison 108 0.667 187 0.583 Kansas State 144 0.660 103 0.606 Kent State 206 0.642 209 0.573 Kentucky 264 0.610 270 0.500 LaSalle 177 0.650 197 0.577 Lafayette 113 0.665 76 0.615 Lamar 12 0.698 116 0.604 LeMoyne 76 0.677 58 0.623 Lehigh 107 0.667 92 0.611 Liberty 73 0.677 95 0.609 Lipscomb 28 0.689 40 0.629 Long Beach State 242 0.627 261 0.540 Long Island 89 0.672 72 0.616 Louisiana State 47 0.684 79 0.614 Louisiana Tech 48 0.684 48 0.627 Louisiana-Lafayette 165 0.653 140 0.598 Louisiana-Monroe 30 0.688 7 0.646 Louisville 259 0.614 252 0.553 Loyola Marymount 22 0.691 27 0.633 Maine 59 0.681 102 0.607 Manhattan 1 0.714 45 0.627 Marist 176 0.650 169 0.588 Marshall 224 0.637 240 0.560 Maryland 194 0.647 192 0.579 Maryland-Baltimore County 49 0.684 142 0.598 Massachusetts 231 0.634 259 0.541 Mercer 75 0.677 87 0.611 Miami, Florida 188 0.648 177 0.587 Miami, Ohio 198 0.645 212 0.571 Michigan 94 0.669 69 0.617 Michigan State 208 0.642 196 0.577 Middle Tennessee State 150 0.658 137 0.598 Minnesota 40 0.686 62 0.622 Mississippi 65 0.680 42 0.629 Mississippi State 251 0.624 266 0.525 Mississippi Valley State 261 0.614 248 0.556 Missouri 7 0.703 28 0.633 Monmouth 262 0.612 255 0.550 Morehead State 258 0.617 258 0.543 Mount St. Mary's 192 0.647 186 0.583 Murray State 41 0.685 117 0.603 Navy 9 0.702 5 0.657 Nebraska 213 0.641 191 0.580 Nevada 255 0.622 218 0.569 Nevada-Las Vegas 267 0.603 256 0.550 New Mexico 230 0.634 249 0.555 New Mexico State 91 0.671 77 0.614 New Orleans 147 0.659 122 0.602 New York Tech 247 0.625 236 0.561 Niagara 219 0.639 162 0.591 Nicholls State 44 0.684 21 0.636 North Carolina 140 0.660 250 0.554 North Carolina A&T 204 0.643 180 0.585 North Carolina State 166 0.653 154 0.596 North Carolina-Asheville 249 0.624 223 0.567 North Carolina-Charlotte 128 0.662 114 0.604 North Carolina-Greensboro 8 0.703 2 0.663 North Carolina-Wilmington 33 0.687 31 0.631 Northeastern 37 0.686 97 0.609 Northern Illinois 136 0.661 108 0.606 Northern Iowa 141 0.660 161 0.591 Northwestern 60 0.681 12 0.642 Northwestern State 38 0.686 46 0.627 Notre Dame 233 0.633 251 0.554 Oakland 245 0.626 216 0.570 Ohio 122 0.663 83 0.612 Ohio State 160 0.656 144 0.597 Oklahoma 133 0.661 106 0.606 Oklahoma State 129 0.661 272 0.295 Old Dominion 81 0.675 56 0.623 Oral Roberts 32 0.688 20 0.636 Oregon State 191 0.647 158 0.592 Pacific 154 0.658 145 0.597 Penn State 216 0.640 227 0.565 Pennsylvania 190 0.647 136 0.599 Pepperdine 159 0.656 101 0.607 Portland 254 0.622 268 0.509 Prairie View A&M 77 0.676 152 0.596 Princeton 29 0.689 13 0.642 Purdue 266 0.607 242 0.557 Quinnipiac 187 0.648 184 0.584 Radford 56 0.682 159 0.592 Rhode Island 20 0.693 6 0.649 Rice 21 0.693 43 0.628 Richmond 103 0.668 205 0.574 Rider 45 0.684 24 0.635 Rutgers 126 0.662 124 0.601 Sacred Heart 106 0.667 91 0.611 Sam Houston State 158 0.656 156 0.594 Samford 131 0.661 96 0.609 San Diego 117 0.664 65 0.620 San Diego State 256 0.617 244 0.557 San Francisco 15 0.697 3 0.659 San Jose State 175 0.650 163 0.591 Santa Clara 110 0.666 131 0.599 Seton Hall 115 0.665 176 0.587 Siena 104 0.668 54 0.624 South Alabama 52 0.683 8 0.646 South Carolina 88 0.672 68 0.617 South Florida 142 0.660 149 0.596 Southeast Missouri State 240 0.630 213 0.571 Southeastern Louisiana 31 0.688 119 0.603 Southern 203 0.644 170 0.588 Southern California 169 0.652 138 0.598 Southern Illinois 71 0.678 63 0.622 Southern Mississippi 210 0.642 190 0.581 Southern Utah 119 0.663 128 0.600 Southwest Missouri State 146 0.659 123 0.601 Southwest Texas State 100 0.668 75 0.615 St. Bonaventure 164 0.653 139 0.598 St. Francis 19 0.694 53 0.624 St. John's 244 0.627 231 0.563 St. Joseph's 92 0.670 29 0.632 St. Louis 189 0.648 125 0.600 St. Mary's 269 0.598 265 0.528 St. Peter's 11 0.700 4 0.658 Stanford 209 0.642 147 0.597 Stetson 67 0.679 61 0.622 Stony Brook 163 0.655 167 0.589 Temple 134 0.661 115 0.604 Tennessee 197 0.646 245 0.557 Tennessee-Martin 2 0.711 1 0.669 Texas 62 0.680 52 0.625 Texas A&M 156 0.657 164 0.590 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 54 0.682 14 0.641 Texas Christian 86 0.672 225 0.566 Texas Southern 46 0.684 23 0.635 Texas Tech 152 0.658 111 0.605 Texas-Arlington 237 0.631 226 0.565 Texas-Pan American 130 0.661 82 0.613 Texas-San Antonio 260 0.614 238 0.561 Toledo 70 0.678 57 0.623 Towson 139 0.661 130 0.599 Troy State 99 0.669 74 0.616 Tulane 173 0.651 133 0.599 UC Riverside 155 0.657 98 0.608 UCLA 221 0.639 200 0.576 Utah 243 0.627 228 0.563 Valparaiso 135 0.661 80 0.613 Vanderbilt 121 0.663 198 0.577 Vermont 114 0.665 94 0.610 Villanova 162 0.655 178 0.587 Virginia 111 0.665 71 0.616 Virginia Commonwealth 220 0.639 241 0.560 Virginia Military 223 0.638 189 0.582 Virginia Tech 272 0.580 269 0.506 Wagner 36 0.686 39 0.629 Wake Forest 127 0.662 78 0.614 Washington 145 0.660 146 0.597 Washington State 101 0.668 113 0.605 Western Carolina 61 0.680 38 0.630 Western Kentucky 186 0.648 181 0.585 Western Michigan 16 0.696 18 0.637 Wichita State 161 0.655 109 0.606 William and Mary 124 0.663 126 0.600 Winthrop 6 0.703 32 0.631 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 195 0.647 173 0.588 Wofford 250 0.624 239 0.560 Wright State 23 0.691 66 0.619 Xavier 55 0.682 55 0.624 Yale 180 0.650 211 0.572 Youngstown State
Erratum: John Tetuan
In compiling the RBOA listings last time, I was limited just a little by available material, and it turned out that I made an incorrect assumption about one of the pitchers for whom I was missing four starts: John Tetuan of Wichita State should have made the RBOA list toward the bottom, probably at #23 if my back of the envelope correction, guided by the pointers of an observant reader, is right. My apologies.
A Really Cool Thing
Normally, everything here is of my own making; there's a certain freedom that comes from that limitation. However, a reader has shared something so cool with me that I just had to get it out to you. Trip von Minden has put together a season data set for Diamond Mind Baseball for 32 of the 2002 NCAA baseball teams and made it available for general play. Just follow the link there to download it.
Diamond Mind is generally regarded as the best baseball simulation on the market right now, and Trip has done an excellent job of mirroring the differences in schedule quality by using the builtin era adjustments. In short, he's put in quite a bit of work to allow you to have quite a bit of fun, and I'm grateful that he's agreed to let me pass it along to you.
If you're interested in reprinting this or any other Boyd's World material for your publication or Web site, please read the reprint policy and contact me
| Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Smart Stats for 2002, Part III: The Defense | About the author, Boyd Nation |