Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> The First Look at the Field

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How am I doing? How am I doing? Spring has done sprung, I got a good woman at home, and I'm in a kick-the-door-out-howl-at-the-moon-Mojo-Nixon-style mood, ready to throw the smack down and take some names. FAU as a #2 seed? Please. Elon as an at large bid? I scoff. It's time. Thanks for asking.

It's early, so this doesn't mean much but fun. Don't let it distract you from the joy of the games. I'm guessing on how the regional bias will play out, but that's always an unknown.

First off, there are thirteen conferences where only the conference tournament winner will advance. Here they are, with my best wild guess at who will win:

• America East (Vermont)
• Colonial Athletic (North Carolina-Wilmington)
• Horizon (Illinois-Chicago)
• Ivy (Princeton)
• Metro Atlantic Athletic (LeMoyne)
• Mid-American (Kent State)
• Mid-Continent (Oral Roberts)
• Mid-Eastern Athletic (Bethune-Cookman)
• Northeast (Central Connecticut State)
• Ohio Valley (Southeast Missouri State)
• Patriot (Bucknell)
• Southwestern Athletic (Southern)
• West Coast (Pepperdine)

Bear in mind that the WCC probably deserves two bids, but remember that teams below #75 in the RPI have a hard time even making it into the discussion, so Loyola Marymount is in trouble if they don't win the conference (ISR #42 currently, RPI #105) and Pepperdine probably doesn't have the RPI to get in if they don't win, even though they deserve to.

There are four conferences with teams that will qualify for at-large bids if they need to, so bubble teams should hope for them to win their conference tournament:

• Atlantic Sun (Florida Atlantic)
• Atlantic 10 (Richmond)
• Big South (Coastal Carolina)
• Southern (North Carolina-Greensboro)

I'm going to guess that between these four conferences and the other conferences below where there's the potential for an outsider to win the conference tournament and use up a bid, three spots will end up being used. That seems a reasonable estimate based on past history. Add in the thirteen one-bid conferences above, the three in this section, and Miami's one independent bid, and that takes care of twenty bids, with forty-four left to spread through the other conferences.

                            Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Rem

Georgia Tech                 8-1   28-6    19   10  35-26
North Carolina State         9-3   30-8    21   13  21-22
Florida State               11-4   33-6    11    4   8-23
North Carolina               7-5   26-11   53   18  19-24
Virginia                     6-5   21-12   40   14  31-16
Wake Forest                  7-7   21-12   63   33  18-11
Clemson                      4-5   25-9    13    3  22-35

Five teams deserve to go. Right now, the RPI says seven actually get in. Fortunately, they can't all play Duke and Maryland forever, so some of them will drop as they play each other. I'll guess five get in. Based on the remaining schedules, I'll take Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, Florida State, North Carolina, and Clemson, which means that Wake Forest is a surprising stay-at-home candidate, and Virginia gets a good run to build for next year.

                            Conf    All   ISR  RPI

Notre Dame                   7-1   25-6    55   76
Virginia Tech                8-2   22-9   108  111
West Virginia                6-2   22-11  106   52

There wasn't as much snow bias last year. Was that a one-year effect because the committee was ticked off about the travel restrictions, or was it a shift in policy? I don't know yet, which makes this hard to call. I'm going to guess that Notre Dame and West Virginia get in, although this should really be a one-bid conference.

                            Conf    All   ISR  RPI

Minnesota                   10-0   20-11   30   40
Ohio State                   8-4   19-10   73   80
Indiana                      7-5   22-9   120  122
Purdue                       6-6   17-14  105   94
Northwestern                 5-5   12-12  101   87
Illinois                     6-6   18-11   78   54

See above, with the proviso that Minnesota actually deserves to be in. I'm going to guess that Illinois pulls it together and goes with them.

                            Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Rem

Texas                       12-3   29-11    4    6  25-28
Nebraska                    11-4   25-9    12   16  33-23
Texas A&M                   10-5   29-11    9   20  33-20
Oklahoma State               8-4   23-11   28   25  36-34
Missouri                     9-5   25-10   24   31  27-27
Baylor                       8-7   25-14    6   11  24-29
Texas Tech                   5-9   23-15   23   34  20-31
Kansas                       4-8   28-15   38   49  31-38

Every year there's a conference like this; this year it's the Big 12's turn. You can make a case for all eight of these, and I certainly would at this point. The remaining schedules, with the exception of Texas, are going to tend to pull all eight of these close together. I'm going to guess they actually end up with seven teams, with Kansas not quite being able to make up enough ground, so it's Texas, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Baylor, and Texas Tech. I'm also looking forward to a visit from the Easter Beagle this week, so leave me my fantasies of good in the world, OK.

                            Conf    All   ISR  RPI

Cal State Fullerton          5-1   30-8     2    8
UC Riverside                 4-2   27-9    10   53
Long Beach State             4-2   23-12    8   23

They're not far enough into the conference schedule yet to worry about who's left to play. I'm not optimistic about it, but Riverside really deserves to be in. Playing with the numbers right now and looking at the fairer treatment that the West got last year on bids, if not placement, I going to go with all three of these.

                            Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Rem

Southern Mississippi        11-4   26-10   32   29  37-35
East Carolina               10-5   23-12   79   63  44-30
Texas Christian             10-5   23-15   34   51  36-36
South Florida                8-5   24-12   65   45  38-37
Tulane                       9-6   26-11   31   27  31-43
Houston                      9-6   18-18   46   36  34-39
Louisville                   8-7   21-12   80   65  44-30
Alabama-Birmingham           6-8   21-13   94   70  39-35

This is an interesting bunch -- none of them are anywhere close to great, several of them are good, and they're all reasonably bunched. I'll pick four, I think, mostly on reputation; USM, TCU, Tulane, and Houston are probably reasonable based on RPI and remaining conference schedule.

                            Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Rem

Wichita State               10-2   27-12   39   66  37-34
Southern Illinois           11-4   20-14   88   83  31-23
Southwest Missouri State     9-5   19-13   75  100  32-30
Indiana State                7-5   23-8    44   30  28-41

I'm thinking that we end up with Wichita State and Indiana State out of this one, and that they both deserve to be there.

                            Conf    All   ISR  RPI

Nevada-Las Vegas            12-3   28-11   18   47
New Mexico                   9-6   25-15   35   48
San Diego State              9-6   16-21   74  113
Brigham Young                9-6   17-16   52  102

Remember again that teams below #75 in the RPI aren't even on the board, effectively, so BYU's out no matter how good they are. I'm hoping, though, that the committee does the right thing and takes both UNLV and New Mexico; the Mountain West has been pretty high-profile lately. I'm hoping a lot this year.

                            Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Rem

Stanford                     7-2   23-10    3    7  22-26
Arizona State                6-3   38-7     5   17  18-27
Arizona                      5-4   26-12   20   37  25-23
Southern California          5-4   18-17   17   26  23-25
California                   6-6   20-18   37   81  21-15
Washington                   4-5   22-12   25   93  23-25

I'd like to think there's a chance that Washington will sneak in, but even I'm not that optimistic about fairness. Southern California will actually be a tough case, but they've got the Houston tough-schedule-and-just-over-.500 precedent to rely on. Stanford, Arizona State, Arizona, and Southern California get in.

                            Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Rem

Louisiana State             11-3   24-11   14    9  43-31
Auburn                      11-4   29-8     7    1  40-33
Mississippi State           10-4   25-7    22   12  35-38
Arkansas                     9-6   27-7    26   21  45-29
Alabama                      8-7   25-11   27   15  42-33
Mississippi                  8-7   21-14   54   42  41-33
Tennessee                    7-8   20-14   71   38  36-37
South Carolina               7-8   22-14   61   32  31-41
Florida                      6-8   25-11   58   39  34-39
Vanderbilt                   6-9   17-17  111   74  34-39
Georgia                      3-12  17-18   84   41  30-41

Well, it's been fun, but the West party couldn't last forever. The East teams can't all lose forever, because, as the remaining conference records show, sooner or later they have to play each other. Conversely, the West teams can't all win forever, for the same reason. As the only West team with three Eastern opponents left on their schedule, Mississippi State may be in a good position for the stretch run. I'm guessing that once the dust settles, things end up with only six bids this year, with LSU, Auburn, MSU, Arkansas, Alabama, and South Carolina making it in, but virtually anything (including a Vanderbilt bid) is still possible.

                            Conf    All   ISR  RPI

Texas-Arlington             13-2   25-15   15   22
Lamar                       11-3   25-10   33   44
Southwest Texas State       10-4   19-19   50   64
Louisiana-Monroe             8-6   19-15   97   96
Northwestern State           8-7   23-16   48   57
McNeese State                6-9   21-16   64   55
Texas-San Antonio            5-10  18-19   60   62

The Southland has been, unusually for a Southern mid-major conference, somewhat mistreated by the committee in recent years, but I'm thinking that the top two are locks at this point, and any of the other could still end up playing their way in. Texas-Arlington and Lamar count for now.

                            Conf    All   ISR  RPI

Florida International        6-3   28-11   72   46
South Alabama                6-3   25-10   36   28

These two go; no one else is all that close right now.

                            Conf    All   ISR  RPI

Rice                        14-1   35-3     1    2
Nevada                       9-2   19-16   45   85
Fresno State                 7-5   20-17   41   58

I'm not quite out of hope, but the conference standings here are a little problematic. I'll go ahead, since they have a lot of conference play left, and say Rice and Fresno State get in.

Here's all sixty-four in one convenient spot:

Alabama                FIU                 Missouri          South Carolina
Arizona                Florida State       Nebraska          SEMO State
Arizona State          Fresno State        UNLV              Southern
Arkansas               Georgia Tech        New Mexico        USC (West)
Auburn                 Houston             North Carolina    USM
Baylor                 Illinois            NCSU              Stanford
Bethune-Cookman        Illinois-Chicago    UNC-Greensboro    Texas
Bucknell               Indiana State       UNC-Wilmington    Texas A&M
Cal State Fullerton    Kent State          Notre Dame        Texas Christian
Central Conn. State    Lamar               Oklahoma State    Texas Tech
Cinderella #1          LeMoyne             Oral Roberts      Texas-Arlington
Cinderella #2          Long Beach State    Pepperdine        Tulane
Cinderella #3          Louisiana State     Princeton         UC Riverside
Clemson                Miami, Florida      Rice              Vermont
Coastal Carolina       Minnesota           Richmond          West Virginia
Florida Atlantic       Miss. State         South Alabama     Wichita State

Rather than keep returning to the subject of pitch counts and pitcher usage in general too often for my main theme, I'm just going to run a standard feature down here where I point out potential problems; feel free to stop reading above this if the subject doesn't interest you. This will just be a quick listing of questionable starts that have caught my eye -- the general threshold for listing is 120 actual pitches or 130 estimated, although short rest will also get a pitcher listed if I catch it. Don't blame me; I'm just the messenger.

(*) Pitch count is estimated.

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Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> The First Look at the Field

About the author, Boyd Nation