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A First Real Look at the Field

I know I've been running the weekly tournament watch feature for my own amusement, but I want to go ahead this week and take a serious look at what's coming. It's still too early for these to be too meaningful, but here's one man's opinion. I'll go back to the asides next week.

First off, there are fifteen conferences where only the conference tournament winner will advance. Here they are, with my best wild guess at who will win:

• America East (Albany)
• Atlantic 10 (Richmond)
• Colonial Athletic (George Mason)
• Horizon (Illinois-Chicago)
• Ivy (Princeton)
• Metro Atlantic Athletic (LeMoyne)
• Mid-American (Eastern Michigan)
• Mid-Eastern Athletic (Bethune-Cookman)
• Mountain West (Nevada-Las Vegas)
• Northeast (Quinnipiac)
• Ohio Valley (Southeast Missouri State)
• Patriot (Army)
• Southern (College of Charleston)
• Southwestern Athletic (Southern)
• West Coast (Loyola Marymount)

Albany was on my at-large list until this week, but their RPI is tumbling and is going to get worse; that's unfortunate, since it's purely because of their schedule the rest of the way. I may talk more about them next week.

There are five conferences with teams that will qualify for at-large bids if they need to, so bubble teams should hope for them to win their conference tournament:

• Big East (Notre Dame)
• Mid-Continent (Oral Roberts)
• Missouri Valley (Wichita State)
• Sun Belt (Louisiana-Lafayette)
• Western Athletic (Rice)

That gives us twenty teams plus Miami. I'm going to avoid my old practice of counting Cinderellas, so we're looking at 43 more bids, although I'll try to identify who drops off when Cinderella shows up.

                            Conf    All    ISR  RPI

Virginia                   14-4    34-7     30   10
Clemson                     8-4    24-14    44   14
North Carolina              9-6    29-10    47   46
Florida State               6-3    27-13    36   11
North Carolina State        9-6    27-13    57   32
Georgia Tech                4-5    22-17    67   38

It's not that Virginia's that good, although they have made great strides the last couple of years. It's that the rest of these guys are really that bad. Nonetheless, there's a reasonable chance that the RPI gets all of these guys in if UNC can correct their usual latter half fade (there's probably a nice research topic there if anyone's interested). I'll take all six of them, just for giggles, but Tech and UNC are two of the first victims of the glass-slippered one.

                            Conf    All    ISR  RPI

Central Florida            17-4    32-9     45   31
Stetson                    12-6    24-16   114   83
Troy State                  9-6    26-9     85   88
Florida Atlantic           10-8    31-9     51   29

UCF is a lock at this point. FAU is the second-best team in the conference and has the RPI, but they've struggled lately, and they need to avoid finishing lower than third to justify a bid. I take UCF and FAU.

                            Conf    All    ISR  RPI

Ohio State                  8-4    18-14    88   79
Minnesota                   7-5    19-14    52   45
Penn State                  7-5    18-16    78   58

Minnesota and Penn State are the two best teams in the conference, although not by much. OSU is in first. For now, I'll take Minnesota and Penn State. Last year there were no real snow bids, but I think a second-place Big 10 team with an RPI in the 50's probably gets one.

                            Conf    All    ISR  RPI

Oklahoma                   12-3    25-14    14   20
Texas                      11-3    39-5      2    1
Oklahoma State              7-4    24-14    26   27
Nebraska                    7-5    26-10    21   24
Texas Tech                  6-5    25-12    35   25
Texas A&M                   7-8    31-12     7   15
Baylor                      6-8    16-22    41   41
Missouri                    4-8    24-14    65   80

They should get seven. They'll probably get the first six unless Baylor can pull over .500 overall, and that's not that likely with their remaining schedule.

                            Conf    All    ISR  RPI

Birmingham-Southern        11-1    29-10    50   34
Winthrop                   10-2    22-15   101   95
Coastal Carolina            7-5    24-13    68   35

BSC is in. Coastal is in under the same conditions as FAU; they have to start winning conference games. Winthrop is a spoiler with no real shot at an at large bid.

                            Conf    All    ISR  RPI

Long Beach State            6-0    26-9      3   16
Cal State Fullerton         6-0    23-17    15   40
Cal Poly                    5-1    33-13    23   76
UC Riverside                4-2    25-15    34   71
UC Irvine                   2-4    24-10     6   19

They should get five easily, but won't -- the Big West continues to bear the largest brunt of the RPI's unfairness. The Washington bid from last year bears some hope, but I think we end up with only Beach, Fullerton, and Irvine unless Cal Poly can sneak into second place in the conference.

                            Conf    All    ISR  RPI

East Carolina              12-3    32-6     16   17
Southern Mississippi       12-3    30-8     17   28
Tulane                     10-5    27-12    49   55
Texas Christian             9-6    23-15    38   39
Houston                     9-6    17-22    58   56
South Florida               8-7    26-13    60   42

This is one place I'm predicting more than interpreting -- I think Houston makes it to .500 and gets rewarded again for their schedule. Tulane's ranking in the polls -- strangely at odds with either reality or the RPI's -- probably gets them in. I'll take ECU, USM, Tulane, TCU, and Houston.

                            Conf    All    ISR  RPI

Stanford                    7-2    30-5      1    4
Washington                  5-4    21-13    12   43
Arizona                     5-4    21-15    13   33
Southern California         5-4    19-19    19   23
Oregon State                4-5    24-11    10   47
Washington State            4-5    22-13    22   54
UCLA                        4-5    21-16    25   51
Arizona State               5-7    26-12     8    6
California                  6-9    21-23    39   60

The worst team in the conference is the 39th best team in the country. In fairness, all nine of these should be in the tournament. I should also get more sleep than I do. Take Stanford, Washington, Arizona, ASU, USC West, and OSU. That's remarkably unfair to WSU, leading the league to finally secede and join the PCL.

                            Conf    All    ISR  RPI

Mississippi                11-4    31-8      5    3
Arkansas                   10-5    26-13    24   18
Tennessee                   9-6    30-9     18    8
Florida                     8-7    28-12    29    9
Louisiana State             8-7    29-10    11    7
Auburn                      8-7    27-12    37   13
South Carolina              7-8    27-10    31   12
Vanderbilt                  7-8    27-10    33   26
Georgia                     6-9    23-15    54   22
Mississippi State           6-9    24-14    42   21
Alabama                     5-10   23-16    56   50

The SEC, similarly to the old joke about the NHL, has played three months to eliminate Kentucky. Any of these could legitimately make the tournament, and I think nine of them (the top nine listed here) do; I wouldn't be shocked by ten bids. While the league is having a great year, although in a vastly different way than the Pac 10, the RPI's look almost guaranteed to overseed some folks, which will weaken the claim of anyone from here who does succeed in the postseason.

                            Conf    All    ISR  RPI

Northwestern State         10-4    22-14    62   74
Lamar                      10-5    28-11    27   44
Texas State                 9-5    22-18    48   48
Texas-Arlington             9-6    24-17    59   69
Texas-San Antonio           7-7    21-20    69   67
Sam Houston State           7-7    13-22   106  144
Southeastern Louisiana      7-8    13-23   125  102
Louisiana-Monroe            5-10   19-21   121  146
McNeese State               5-10   18-21   134  148
Nicholls State              4-11   15-23   171  195

Based on remaining schedules and team strength, I'm predicting bids for Lamar and Texas State, my soft spots for NSU and UT-A notwithstanding.

Rather than keep returning to the subject of pitch counts and pitcher usage in general too often for my main theme, I'm just going to run a standard feature down here where I point out potential problems; feel free to stop reading above this if the subject doesn't interest you. This will just be a quick listing of questionable starts that have caught my eye -- the general threshold for listing is 120 actual pitches or 130 estimated, although short rest will also get a pitcher listed if I catch it. Don't blame me; I'm just the messenger.

(*) Pitch count is estimated.

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Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> A First Real Look at the Field

About the author, Boyd Nation