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Going In

Publication Date: April 25, 2006

One-Bids

Four weeks to go -- you know the drill:

First off, there are eighteen conferences (a higher number than usual) where only the conference tournament winner will advance. Here they are, with my best wild guess at who will win:

There's still time a couple of these to change -- I can spin a scenario where the WAC gets three bids, for example, and Michigan or Wichita State could easily play into an at large bid -- but that's where we are right now. None of these will host.

One Possible At-Large Bid

There are three conferences with teams that will qualify for at-large bids if they need to, so bubble teams should hope for them to win their conference tournament:

Out of these, there really aren't many candidates for a second at-large bid, although it's still possible for Birmingham-Southern or UNC-Wilmington. Notre Dame will host.

Legend

Rem -- Average ISR of remaining opponents
I -- In tournament
O -- Out of tournament
BI -- On the bubble, currently in
BO -- On the bubble, currently out

Atlantic Coast

                          RPI  ISR   All   Conf    Rem    Status

Clemson                     1    9  30-13  12-6   106.4     I
Georgia Tech                3    6  32-10  13-8   105.7     I
North Carolina              6   11  36-8   15-6   105.6     I
North Carolina State       10   19  31-13  13-8   109.9     I
Florida State              11   16  33-10  13-8   106.8     I
Wake Forest                18   40  30-14  14-7   109.4     I
Virginia                   19   24  35-10  13-8   108.7     I
Miami, Florida             20   44  27-15  12-9   116.8     I
Maryland                   49   93  20-25   7-17   97.7     BO

The RPI is being kind to them, but all eight of these deserve to be in. Maryland's an odd case; they're probably too far below .500 in conference, but the RPI is almost there, and the rest of the schedule is easy. Clemson, Georgia Tech, UNC, and FSU will host, and NCSU or Miami could.

Big Twelve

                          RPI  ISR   All   Conf    Rem    Status

Nebraska                    5    2  32-6   12-3   113.0     I
Texas                       8    5  29-15  13-4   106.7     I
Oklahoma                    9    4  33-10  11-4   117.6     I
Baylor                     29   31  26-17   9-9   112.4     I
Kansas                     39   34  29-16   9-9   108.1     I
Oklahoma State             43   39  28-13   7-8   114.1     BI
Texas Tech                 58   52  24-17   6-10  115.3     BO
Missouri                   73   88  19-20   7-11  111.7     BO

Interesting conference race, but that discussion is a couple of weeks away. Nebraska, Texas, and Oklahoma will host, and they're on the verge of pulling off three national seeds.

Big West

                          RPI  ISR   All   Conf    Rem    Status

Cal State Fullerton         7    1  31-10   8-1   114.9     I
UC Irvine                  40   15  25-17   5-7   110.0     BI
Long Beach State           44   25  20-18   4-1   115.9     BI
Cal State Northridge       59   48  18-20   2-6   112.6     BO
Cal Poly                   70   33  23-18   7-5   111.7     BI
UC Riverside               76   30  21-15   3-3   118.0     BO

There's too much conference play left to get a good feel for this, so expect some turnover in this list. Fullerton will host.

Conference USA

                          RPI  ISR   All   Conf    Rem    Status

Rice                        2    3  35-9   14-1   105.9     I
Houston                    12   17  29-15  12-3   103.6     I
East Carolina              34   59  27-15   6-6   105.2     BI
Southern Mississippi       35   46  29-15   5-7   101.8     BI
Tulane                     41   55  28-15   5-7   105.5     BI

They're dancing a delicate dance here on the bottom of this list. I don't expect more than four bids and wouldn't be surprised by three, but right at this moment they're all lined up just inside the fence. Rice and Houston will host, causing apocalyptic traffic meltdowns in the Houston metro area.

Pacific Ten

                          RPI  ISR   All   Conf    Rem    Status

Arizona State              14   10  28-14   7-5   112.8     I
UCLA                       17   13  23-17   7-5   114.4     I
Oregon State               37    7  28-10   9-3   113.0     I
Washington                 45   14  25-15   6-6   110.8     BI
Southern California        46   28  23-20   9-6   113.9     BI
Stanford                   47   36  17-18   3-9   114.0     BO
Arizona                    63   53  19-20   5-7   115.2     BO
California                102   64  19-21   6-9   117.8     BO
Washington State          115   65  26-15   5-7   115.6     BO

This is what tough scheduling will do to you, at least as long as the silly got-to-be-over-.500-to-get-in rule is in place. The entire conference could theoretically get in (although Wazzoo would be a stretch at this point), although not at the same time, but at least four of them are flirting with not being over .500. It's hard to imagine the tournament without Stanford, but that's what we're looking at. ASU and OSU host.

Southeastern

                          RPI  ISR   All   Conf    Rem    Status

Alabama                     4    8  32-12  13-5   108.0     I
Arkansas                   13   12  30-12  10-8   110.6     I
South Carolina             16   26  30-11  11-7   109.4     I
Georgia                    22   29  25-16   7-11  110.2     I
Mississippi State          24   20  29-13   8-9   111.1     I
Mississippi                25   41  27-15  10-8   111.2     I
Florida                    27   73  24-20   6-12  114.1     BI
Kentucky                   31   38  32-10  11-7   111.2     I
Louisiana State            33   66  27-16   6-12  114.7     BO
Auburn                     36   75  21-23   8-10  118.6     BO
Vanderbilt                 42   60  26-16  10-8   110.3     BI
Tennessee                  82   86  24-16   7-10  110.2     BO

Another one where we can't really eliminate anyone yet, although a couple of them will probably be gone after this weekend. LSU and Florida need to start winning some games, or the RPI won't be able to overcome the lousy conference records, and both of them have really tough remaining schedules. Florida's only in at the moment because I had a really hard time filling the 64th spot, which will actually go to a Cinderella team anyway; there are a bunch of teams in the 40-50 RPI range with problems with win-loss records. Auburn needs to clear .500 by a bit. Tennessee surprised me, but if they can get to .500 in-conference, they'll make it to Hoover and probably make it in. Bama, Arkansas, and South Carolina will host; Georgia, MSU, or Ole Miss could.

Southern

                          RPI  ISR   All   Conf    Rem    Status

College of Charleston      21   32  33-10  15-3   104.2     I
Elon                       23   37  33-12  14-4   101.3     I
Georgia Southern           68  106  24-19  10-5   106.1     BO

CofC is trying for the Coastal Carolina Memorial Southern Mid-Major #1 Seed, but isn't quite there at the moment, and Troy is making a better claim.

Sun Belt

                          RPI  ISR   All   Conf    Rem    Status

Troy                       15   27  32-11  11-1    99.3     I
South Alabama              38   63  30-15  10-5    97.2     BI
Florida International      54   83  26-18   7-8    88.2     BO
Louisiana-Lafayette        55   61  27-13  10-2    97.3     BO

After a rough start to the year, the Sun Belt has performed well in mid-week games recently, and several teams have jumped up into the mix. I don't think it will happen, but Troy could host, either at home or, more likely, at the beautiful minor league park in Montgomery.

West Coast

                          RPI  ISR   All   Conf    Rem    Status

Pepperdine                 28   18  27-16   7-5   105.3     I
San Diego                  57   22  25-18   7-5   112.7     BI
San Francisco              67   42  26-18   7-5   112.0     BO
Gonzaga                    93   62  25-16   7-5   109.3     BO
St. Mary's                117   76  21-16   8-4   113.0     O

I don't really have anything to say here; I just wanted to dwell a moment on St. Mary's being in first place on April 27.

Tournament Watch

This means absolutely nothing, ignore it.

The list in one handy place:

America East   SWAC                  Baylor                Southern California
Atlantic 10    WAC                   Kansas                Alabama
Atlantic Sun   Notre Dame            Oklahoma State        Arkansas
Big Ten        Winthrop              Cal State Fullerton   South Carolina
Horizon        Old Dominion          UC Irvine             Georgia
Ivy            Clemson               Long Beach State      Mississippi State
MAAC           Georgia Tech          Cal Poly              Florida
MAC            North Carolina        Rice                  Mississippi
MEAC           North Carolina State  Houston               Kentucky
Mid-Continent  Florida State         East Carolina         Vanderbilt
Mountain West  Wake Forest           Southern Mississippi  College of Charleston
MVC            Virginia              Tulane                Elon
NEC            Miami, Florida        Arizona State         Troy
OVC            Nebraska              UCLA                  South Alabama
Patriot        Texas                 Oregon State          Pepperdine
Southland      Oklahoma              Washington            San Diego

Pitch Count Watch

Rather than keep returning to the subject of pitch counts and pitcher usage in general too often for my main theme, I'm just going to run a standard feature down here where I point out potential problems; feel free to stop reading above this if the subject doesn't interest you. This will just be a quick listing of questionable starts that have caught my eye -- the general threshold for listing is 120 actual pitches or 130 estimated, although short rest will also get a pitcher listed if I catch it. Don't blame me; I'm just the messenger.

Date   Team   Pitcher   Opponent   IP   H   R   ER   BB   SO   AB   BF   Pitches
4/09 Old Dominion Jason Godin Hofstra 9.0 7 2 2 6 12 33 41 158
4/14 Winthrop Heath Rollins North Carolina-Asheville 8.2 10 4 4 2 14 36 39 123
4/20 Maryland-Eastern Shore Dustin Longchamps Mount St. Mary's 7.0 5 4 3 2 11 26 29 135
4/20 St. Francis Brian Honeyman Iona 9.0 13 7 3 1 4 41 45 143(*)
4/21 UCLA Hector Ambriz Arizona State 7.0 7 3 2 2 5 29 31 129
4/21 Cal Poly Bud Norris UC Riverside 7.0 10 9 4 3 2 28 38 126
4/21 Campbell Blake Herring Stetson 8.0 7 5 5 2 8 27 33 122
4/21 Evansville Adam Rogers Creighton 9.0 9 2 2 1 4 32 37 133
4/21 Florida International Walker Whitley Louisiana-Lafayette 9.0 9 6 2 3 6 36 42 127
4/21 McNeese State Drek Blacksher Nicholls State 9.0 7 2 1 2 4 32 37 134
4/21 Houston Brad Lincoln Memphis 8.0 6 2 2 1 11 32 33 124
4/21 Michigan Zach Putnam Purdue 9.0 7 3 2 2 6 34 38 134
4/21 North Carolina State Andrew Brackman North Carolina 7.0 9 5 5 3 7 29 33 121
4/21 Georgia Southern Teaford North Carolina-Greensboro 8.0 3 0 0 4 10 26 30 123
4/21 Oklahoma Daniel McCutchen Texas Tech 8.0 8 2 2 4 5 32 36 123
4/21 UC Irvine Justin Cassel UC Santa Barbara 8.2 7 2 1 1 15 33 34 137
4/21 Utah Josh Cooper New Mexico 6.2 8 5 0 6 5 26 33 131
4/21 The Citadel Wes Wrenn Western Carolina 7.0 9 3 3 3 7 28 32 121
4/21 Northeastern Adam Ottavino William and Mary 8.0 2 0 0 3 16 25 29 126
4/22 Belmont Charles Lee Florida Atlantic 9.0 7 6 4 2 4 32 37 121
4/22 Jackson State Ch Stapleton Alabama A&M 9.0 10 6 6 3 11 35 40 148(*)
4/22 South Alabama P. J. Walters Middle Tennessee State 10.0 6 0 0 4 11 34 38 145(*)
4/22 Northwestern Dan Brauer Penn State 7.0 6 2 2 3 8 27 30 122
4/22 Pittsburgh Billy Muldowney South Florida 7.1 4 0 0 4 11 25 30 122
4/22 Grambling State Demetrius Marshall Southern 8.0 8 7 7 4 11 32 36 139(*)
4/22 Cleveland State Nathan Schaefer Wisconsin-Milwaukee 7.0 6 4 4 4 8 27 31 130
4/22 Belmont Josh Moffitt Florida Atlantic 9.0 6 2 2 1 11 32 34 121
4/22 West Virginia Dan Leatherman Louisville 9.0 11 9 8 3 3 37 40 132(*)
4/22 Pittsburgh Rob Brant South Florida 7.1 2 0 0 6 10 22 29 125
4/22 Alabama Bernard Robert Vanderbilt 7.1 9 6 6 3 9 31 36 132(*)
4/22 Dartmouth Josh Faiola Yale 12.0 7 2 1 2 4 40 45 145
4/22 Alabama-Birmingham Jim Crew Central Florida 6.2 3 3 2 8 4 23 32 131
4/22 UCLA Dave Huff Arizona State 9.0 2 1 1 2 6 27 30 121
4/22 Connecticut Rich Sirois St. John's 9.0 9 2 2 1 3 32 36 121
4/22 San Jose State Branden Dewing Fresno State 8.0 9 3 3 1 4 34 35 124
4/22 Lipscomb Matt Schnelly Charleston Southern 8.0 9 5 5 5 7 31 37 136(*)
4/22 Houston Ricky Hargrove Memphis 8.0 7 1 0 1 8 31 34 121
4/22 New York Tech Joe Esposito Maine 7.0 5 2 1 6 9 26 34 134(*)
4/22 Indiana State Ryan Hayes Northern Iowa 9.0 9 7 7 3 4 36 39 154
4/22 Georgia Brooks Brown Tennessee 9.0 3 0 0 2 14 30 33 131(*)
4/22 Virginia Military Travis Smink Birmingham-Southern 7.0 4 1 1 3 6 25 29 121
4/22 Birmingham-Southern Brandon Hynick Virginia Military 7.0 4 2 2 5 3 21 28 123
4/23 Pennsylvania Brian Cirri Princeton 9.0 3 2 2 6 5 30 37 130
4/23 Princeton Eric Walz Pennsylvania 9.0 5 2 1 5 6 33 38 128
4/23 Alabama-Birmingham Lyle Northington Central Florida 8.0 5 1 1 3 3 30 34 149
4/23 Southeast Missouri State Asif Shah Austin Peay State 8.0 8 4 3 4 10 31 35 134(*)
4/23 Louisiana-Monroe David Mixon Lamar 9.0 9 5 4 4 7 35 41 144
4/23 Louisville Brian Halford West Virginia 8.2 12 6 6 3 4 34 39 131(*)
4/23 Norfolk State Joseph Seal Delaware State 8.0 10 6 6 7 6 31 39 145(*)
4/23 Tennessee James Adkins Georgia 8.0 5 4 1 4 11 31 35 136(*)
4/23 Sam Houston State Zach Adkisson Texas State 8.0 6 3 3 3 3 27 34 125
4/23 Northeastern Kris Dabrowiecki William and Mary 8.0 2 1 1 2 6 27 29 126
4/24 Brown Jeff Dietz Harvard 8.0 8 2 2 1 8 31 32 122
4/24 Bucknell Nathan Mittag Holy Cross 8.0 8 6 2 1 7 34 39 132(*)
4/24 Iona Matt Costello Manhattan 8.2 6 3 2 4 8 29 37 136(*)
4/24 Liberty Dustin Umberger Coastal Carolina 9.0 8 2 2 3 3 31 36 130
4/25 Boston College Ted Ratliff Harvard 9.0 3 2 2 3 9 30 34 126
4/25 Brigham Young Matthew Jensen Northern Colorado 7.1 6 3 2 3 5 25 31 124
4/25 College of Charleston Danny Meszaros The Citadel 7.1 5 2 1 2 11 25 30 121
4/26 Arkansas-Pine Bluff A Terry Oklahoma State 7.0 12 11 9 9 3 30 41 150(*)
4/26 Arkansas-Pine Bluff T Davis Oklahoma State 8.0 26 16 16 2 2 47 50 156(*)

The first two are actual counts replacing estimates.

(*) Pitch count is estimated. As always, I welcome actual pitch count corrections.

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Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Going In About the author, Boyd Nation