| Boyd's World-> First Look '08 | About the author, Boyd Nation |
First Look '08
Publication Date: May 1, 2008
I don't know that the world particularly needs one more guy discussing who he thinks is in the tournament at this point, but I'm going to run through this as a way of shaking off the cobwebs as I get ready to run through the usual home stretch columns (even with Breadcrumbs retired, I think these are generally worth the effort -- next week, it's the conference race watch, then the ISR-based field, then a last predictive column, then the field analysis).
One-Bids
First off, there are fourteen conferences where only the conference tournament winner will advance. Here they are, with my best wild guess at who will win:
None of these will host.
One Possible At-Large Bid
There are an astounding eight conferences right now with teams that will qualify for at-large bids if they need to, plus Dallas Baptist, who I think will get in, although the severe RPI drop the last couple of weeks has pushed them down onto the bubble. This obviously has some major implications for bubble teams (including most of these), who need to be sweating more than usual right now. Overall, this is a sign that it's been a good year for the power conferences, which might or might not be related to the new schedule.
There are a few bubble out teams in these leagues, like Louisville, San Diego State, or New Mexico, that could still make it in. Coastal might host, and I think Michigan or Wichita might get to be a token Northern host, since I'm having trouble making the numbers work without them (the RPI is Carolina-heavy this year, which throws things off).
Legend
Rem -- Average ISR of remaining opponents I -- In tournament O -- Out of tournament BI -- On the bubble, currently in BO -- On the bubble, currently out
Atlantic Coast
RPI ISR All Conf Rem Status
Miami, Florida 1 2 36-5 20-2 108.9 I
Florida State 2 3 37-7 19-5 100.4 I
North Carolina 3 13 38-8 18-5 111.5 I
North Carolina State 10 33 30-13 15-8 104.6 I
Georgia Tech 19 35 31-13 12-12 112.5 I
Virginia 31 61 33-15 13-11 117.9 I
Clemson 34 64 24-20 10-13 115.9 BI
I think Clemson's safe for now, but the conference record doesn't give them a lot of wiggle room left. The top three will host.
Big Twelve
RPI ISR All Conf Rem Status
Oklahoma State 5 8 30-11 14-7 105.3 I
Texas A&M 8 12 38-7 18-3 114.8 I
Nebraska 14 4 33-8 15-5 112.2 I
Texas 32 42 27-18 10-11 117.1 I
Baylor 39 49 26-20 9-12 109.7 BI
Oklahoma 42 38 28-16 6-11 112.1 BI
Missouri 48 39 27-15 9-9 111.7 BO
If conferences got bids instead of teams, this would be more than a five-bid league, but all of the bottom three here have some serious warts, so I'm not sure that more than one of them get in. The top three will host.
Big West
RPI ISR All Conf Rem Status
Cal State Fullerton 15 7 27-15 11-4 116.1 I
UC Irvine 17 5 28-11 6-6 111.4 I
Long Beach State 35 15 26-15 8-4 117.3 I
UC Davis 40 18 27-15 7-5 115.5 I
UC Santa Barbara 53 20 27-14 8-4 118.4 BI
UCSB may be a bit of a stretch; they really need to stay in the top three in the conference standings to overcome the RPI, and they've got the toughest schedule left. Consider this a right now evaluation rather than a prediction. Fullerton and Irvine host.
Conference USA
RPI ISR All Conf Rem Status
Rice 6 17 34-11 15-3 112.1 I
East Carolina 7 30 33-13 8-7 102.0 I
Southern Mississippi 16 23 32-14 9-6 99.3 I
Houston 50 48 27-18 8-7 106.4 BO
Tulane 60 60 30-13 8-5 113.2 BO
Rice will host. ECU might, and I'll count them, but they've got some issues with geographic density around them, and the RPI is the kind that tends to look a little empty to a slightly-more-sophisticated committee like we have now.
Pacific Ten
RPI ISR All Conf Rem Status
Arizona State 4 1 35-7 10-5 116.0 I
Arizona 9 6 30-13 7-8 116.9 I
Stanford 18 11 25-15 10-5 116.0 I
Oregon State 21 16 20-16 8-7 110.3 I
Washington State 22 25 22-19 3-9 114.5 BI
California 24 9 27-14 7-8 120.3 I
Southern California 49 26 21-22 7-8 113.7 BO
UCLA 54 21 23-18 6-6 121.2 BO
Well, they've probably eliminated Washington (who we'll probably be talking about in a couple of weeks). Somebody has to lose conference games, so, unfortunately, we're probably looking at six bids as a max here -- I figure there's a decent chance that one of the current BO teams pulls it in or WSU's conference record comes up. What the Pac 10 has done to the rest of the country this year has been truly impressive. The most interesting question is whether they let both Arizona teams host; everybody gets linked in as "Western" teams, but there are actually some travel cost issues involved in getting teams to Tucson. I'll hope they do the right thing; if they don't, Stanford will host in Arizona's place.
Southeastern
RPI ISR All Conf Rem Status
Georgia 12 22 29-14 15-5 111.5 I
South Carolina 13 32 31-14 11-10 108.1 I
Florida 20 46 27-16 12-9 109.9 I
Arkansas 23 47 27-18 9-11 107.7 BI
Vanderbilt 27 41 31-13 11-9 109.2 I
Kentucky 28 34 34-11 11-10 106.6 I
Louisiana State 33 58 29-16 9-11 107.5 BI
Mississippi 45 54 30-17 11-10 112.4 BI
Auburn 59 88 24-22 8-13 106.0 BO
The gap between the ISR's and the RPI's is larger than usual this year for the SEC; this could be a rocky postseason for the league, depending on what kind of draw they get. Georgia, USC East, and Florida will host.
Southern
RPI ISR All Conf Rem Status
Elon 29 59 34-14 16-6 92.1 I
College of Charleston 43 65 30-14 13-5 99.2 BI
Not much to say about this so, referencing Twain, I'll draw upon my fine command of language and say nothing.
West Coast
RPI ISR All Conf Rem Status
Pepperdine 26 14 27-13 8-3 115.5 I
San Diego 30 10 35-12 13-2 116.5 I
Santa Clara 56 19 27-16 7-5 112.4 BI
Loyola Marymount 69 37 21-24 5-10 120.5 BO
Gonzaga 80 24 27-18 7-7 114.0 BO
San Francisco 90 44 26-20 8-7 117.8 BO
The disconnect between the RPI and the ISR doesn't get much more stark than this. I'll write more later about what the WCC did out of conference this year, but, for better or worse, they'll probably only get three bids, none of whom will host.
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