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What Do You Need to Do?
Publication Date: January 23, 2007
Before I hit my main subject this week, I need to publish a correction, and I don't want it to get buried at the end. Last time out, I mentioned again that the practice of high-profile Western teams from the same conference scheduling an extra series against each other was harmful to the conference as a whole in the RPI's, and that it might be worth it for some of the affected coaches to put some pressure on to try and get them to stop. I wanted to quantify the effect, so I ran some numbers this week, and it turns out, while I was theoretically correct, that the problem, while real, is not as severe as I had guessed. The teams hurt themselves -- it looks like the teams involved could gain 3-5 spots a year in the RPI by trading those series for a similar team outside the region -- but the magnitude of the effect on the rest of the conference is never big enough to change anyone by more than 1 spot in the RPI. I apologize for overstating my case initially.
Now, on to the main thrust of the piece, which is also related to strength of schedule issues. In thinking about the implications of some of the SoS numbers, I wondered how high some teams were setting the bar for themselves. In other words, there's a vague level where you become a likely at large team around #45 in the RPI -- given the schedule that each team played, how many games would they have had to win to reach that level? What follows is an unavoidably long list of numbers, since this is really only interesting if we look at it for everyone. I also threw in the record needed to get to #45 in the ISR's, since the difference is telling in a few cases. This table shows the actual record for each team for 2006, along with the record that it would have taken against their schedule to get to #45 in the RPI or ISR.
Team Actual RPI ISR Air Force 10-38 41- 7 33-15 Akron 15-36 43- 8 42- 9 Alabama 41-19 28-32 34-26 Alabama A&M 8-27 ----- ----- Alabama State 11-34 ----- ----- Alabama-Birmingham 19-38 33-24 36-21 Albany 20-32 45- 7 46- 6 Alcorn State 26-21 ----- ----- Appalachian State 24-31 41-14 42-13 Arizona 27-28 32-23 28-27 Arizona State 36-19 32-23 29-26 Arkansas 38-19 29-28 32-25 Arkansas State 22-30 34-18 36-16 Arkansas-Little Rock 24-30 42-12 40-14 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 15-29 42- 2 41- 3 Army 30-20 45- 5 49- 1 Auburn 22-34 25-31 31-25 Austin Peay State 32-27 52- 7 51- 8 Ball State 37-20 41-16 43-14 Baylor 35-24 31-28 33-26 Belmont 24-31 41-14 41-14 Bethune-Cookman 30-25 43-12 45-10 Binghamton 27-23 44- 6 46- 5 Birmingham-Southern 33-22 37-18 39-16 Boston College 28-25 34-19 36-17 Bowling Green State 26-27 45- 8 45- 8 Bradley 26-31 44-13 44-13 Brigham Young 33-28 50-11 40-21 Brown 16-24 30-10 33- 7 Bucknell 24-24 37-11 43- 5 Buffalo 15-37 42-10 41-11 Butler 21-36 48- 9 46-11 Cal Poly 29-27 36-20 28-28 Cal State Fullerton 43-13 30-26 27-29 Cal State Northridge 26-30 33-23 27-29 Cal State Sacramento 20-37 40-17 33-24 California 26-28 33-21 27-27 Campbell 19-38 40-17 41-16 Canisius 18-36 52- 2 51- 3 Centenary 23-30 49- 4 46- 7 Central Connecticut State 33-18 51- 1 ----- Central Florida 23-33 35-21 40-16 Central Michigan 35-23 47-11 47-11 Charleston Southern 18-38 36-20 39-17 Chicago State 7-44 46- 5 40-11 Cincinnati 32-26 46-12 49- 9 Clemson 47-14 26-35 35-26 Cleveland State 10-42 41-11 41-11 Coastal Carolina 30-27 38-19 41-16 College of Charleston 43-15 36-22 41-17 Columbia 13-32 41- 4 42- 3 Connecticut 39-18 42-15 47-10 Coppin State 13-41 53- 1 51- 3 Cornell 10-29 34- 5 35- 4 Creighton 31-21 38-14 38-14 Dallas Baptist 33-23 37-19 37-19 Dartmouth 20-19 33- 6 32- 7 Davidson 18-33 37-14 39-12 Dayton 33-24 48- 9 49- 8 Delaware 30-24 45- 9 47- 7 Delaware State 18-37 52- 3 52- 3 Duke 15-40 34-21 36-19 Duquesne 19-34 45- 8 46- 7 East Carolina 33-26 34-25 39-20 East Tennessee State 31-27 42-16 43-15 Eastern Illinois 31-24 47- 8 47- 8 Eastern Kentucky 29-26 50- 5 49- 6 Eastern Michigan 27-27 39-15 40-14 Elon 44-16 38-22 42-18 Evansville 40-20 42-18 46-14 Fairfield 18-29 40- 7 43- 4 Fairleigh Dickinson 10-43 53- 1 53- 1 Florida 28-28 27-29 33-23 Florida A&M 13-34 45- 2 45- 2 Florida Atlantic 30-28 37-21 42-16 Florida International 36-24 41-19 45-15 Florida State 42-19 31-30 38-23 Fordham 24-32 48- 8 50- 6 Fresno State 43-16 39-20 37-22 Furman 32-23 39-16 41-14 Gardner-Webb 24-31 41-14 41-14 George Mason 20-31 34-17 38-13 George Washington 25-34 43-16 48-11 Georgetown 24-32 46-10 46-10 Georgia 41-19 29-31 33-27 Georgia Southern 31-27 36-22 41-17 Georgia State 26-31 39-18 43-14 Georgia Tech 45-16 31-30 38-23 Gonzaga 29-24 39-14 33-20 Grambling State 6-38 44- 1 42- 2 Hartford 11-38 40- 9 42- 7 Harvard 21-20 32- 9 34- 7 Hawaii 43-15 40-18 36-22 Hawaii-Hilo 15-34 40- 9 35-14 High Point 27-32 40-19 43-16 Hofstra 24-31 42-13 44-11 Holy Cross 16-26 32-10 38- 4 Houston 39-20 31-28 35-24 IUPU-Fort Wayne 21-28 48- 1 43- 6 Illinois 29-29 43-15 43-15 Illinois State 20-33 34-19 37-16 Illinois-Chicago 35-20 48- 7 46- 9 Indiana 22-34 44-12 43-13 Indiana State 20-34 43-11 43-11 Iona 12-42 46- 8 49- 5 Iowa 23-33 41-15 41-15 Jackson State 22-17 ----- ----- Jacksonville 42-17 42-17 45-14 Jacksonville State 35-22 49- 8 49- 8 James Madison 38-21 43-16 47-12 Kansas 42-23 36-29 37-28 Kansas State 31-20 33-18 33-18 Kennesaw State 24-32 38-18 39-17 Kent State 38-19 39-18 42-15 Kentucky 42-15 37-20 38-19 LaSalle 20-31 46- 5 45- 6 Lafayette 27-24 47- 4 49- 2 Lamar 35-23 42-16 41-17 LeMoyne 38-14 46- 6 49- 3 Lehigh 28-26 47- 7 52- 2 Liberty 39-21 48-12 49-11 Lipscomb 22-32 43-11 41-13 Long Beach State 29-27 30-26 26-30 Long Island 13-33 46- 1 ----- Longwood 23-27 46- 4 45- 5 Louisiana State 35-24 32-27 37-22 Louisiana Tech 33-25 40-18 38-20 Louisiana-Lafayette 39-20 41-18 42-17 Louisiana-Monroe 18-37 40-15 37-18 Louisville 31-29 39-21 45-15 Loyola Marymount 24-32 36-20 29-27 Maine 35-20 51- 4 53- 2 Manhattan 32-21 45- 8 50- 3 Marist 24-28 42-10 46- 6 Marshall 22-32 38-16 39-15 Maryland 26-30 28-28 35-21 Maryland-Baltimore County 18-34 47- 5 49- 3 Maryland-Eastern Shore 17-34 48- 3 48- 3 Massachusetts 14-30 38- 6 39- 5 McNeese State 35-20 40-15 40-15 Memphis 32-28 37-23 40-20 Mercer 34-26 41-19 44-16 Miami, Florida 36-21 27-30 34-23 Miami, Ohio 33-25 44-14 44-14 Michigan 42-19 43-18 45-16 Michigan State 26-30 41-15 42-14 Middle Tennessee State 30-25 34-21 38-17 Minnesota 34-26 41-19 43-17 Mississippi 40-20 31-29 36-24 Mississippi State 35-21 32-24 34-22 Mississippi Valley State 24-32 51- 5 55- 1 Missouri 31-25 32-24 34-22 Missouri State 33-22 34-21 39-16 Monmouth 27-22 46- 3 48- 1 Morehead State 17-36 50- 3 46- 7 Mount St. Mary's 23-24 ----- ----- Murray State 15-40 45-10 45-10 Navy 32-21 47- 6 51- 2 Nebraska 42-15 30-27 32-25 Nevada 26-28 39-15 33-21 Nevada-Las Vegas 29-30 38-21 34-25 New Mexico 30-29 44-15 37-22 New Mexico State 19-36 38-17 34-21 New Orleans 30-28 40-18 43-15 New York Tech 31-22 47- 6 50- 3 Niagara 28-26 49- 5 50- 4 Nicholls State 13-40 37-16 36-17 Norfolk State 23-28 50- 1 50- 1 North Carolina 45-13 35-23 40-18 North Carolina A&T 22-36 56- 2 52- 6 North Carolina State 38-21 29-30 36-23 North Carolina-Asheville 28-33 45-16 44-17 North Carolina-Charlotte 35-20 47- 8 49- 6 North Carolina-Greensboro 26-33 37-22 40-19 North Carolina-Wilmington 41-20 41-20 47-14 North Dakota State 12-41 45- 8 38-15 North Florida 34-21 41-14 41-14 Northeastern 27-23 35-15 40-10 Northern Colorado 21-30 43- 8 35-16 Northern Illinois 24-31 42-13 40-15 Northern Iowa 28-27 43-12 43-12 Northwestern 26-33 42-17 41-18 Northwestern State 33-28 47-14 45-16 Notre Dame 45-15 44-16 47-13 Oakland 20-38 48-10 45-13 Ohio 22-25 39- 8 39- 8 Ohio State 37-21 45-13 45-13 Oklahoma 40-19 29-30 32-27 Oklahoma State 39-18 31-26 34-23 Old Dominion 39-17 41-15 46-10 Oral Roberts 38-14 38-14 38-14 Oregon State 39-14 35-18 30-23 Pacific 30-25 36-19 29-26 Penn State 20-36 38-18 39-17 Pennsylvania 12-27 38- 1 38- 1 Pepperdine 40-19 32-27 31-28 Pittsburgh 23-29 39-13 41-11 Portland 15-37 34-18 28-24 Prairie View A&M 33-20 52- 1 52- 1 Princeton 19-24 38- 5 38- 5 Purdue 31-27 40-18 42-16 Quinnipiac 22-24 39- 7 43- 3 Radford 7-41 37-11 36-12 Rhode Island 34-16 43- 7 45- 5 Rice 50-10 32-28 35-25 Richmond 22-33 42-13 46- 9 Rider 25-31 50- 6 52- 4 Rutgers 29-28 38-19 44-13 Sacred Heart 26-28 52- 2 54- 1 Sam Houston State 23-31 44-10 40-14 Samford 34-25 46-13 47-12 San Diego 32-23 34-21 29-26 San Diego State 23-36 37-22 31-28 San Francisco 38-21 39-20 34-25 San Jose State 33-26 39-20 35-24 Santa Clara 28-26 39-15 31-23 Savannah State 30-19 43- 6 43- 6 Seton Hall 17-34 39-12 42- 9 Siena 23-31 44-10 47- 7 South Alabama 38-19 36-21 41-16 South Carolina 37-22 33-26 37-22 South Dakota State 23-29 51- 1 42-10 South Florida 23-35 38-20 43-15 Southeast Missouri State 23-33 46-10 47- 9 Southeastern Louisiana 23-32 39-16 39-16 Southern 26-20 ----- ----- Southern California 25-33 29-29 26-32 Southern Illinois 33-25 44-14 45-13 Southern Mississippi 38-21 36-23 38-21 Southern Utah 26-28 52- 2 43-11 St. Bonaventure 29-21 45- 5 47- 3 St. Francis 6-39 45- 1 45- 1 St. John's 40-19 45-14 49-10 St. Joseph's 17-39 52- 4 51- 5 St. Louis 32-27 45-14 49-10 St. Mary's 26-25 39-12 33-18 St. Peter's 10-41 48- 3 48- 3 Stanford 30-25 30-25 26-29 Stephen F. Austin State 15-41 43-13 38-18 Stetson 38-22 42-18 45-15 Stony Brook 25-29 46- 8 48- 6 Temple 12-41 51- 2 49- 4 Tennessee 31-24 34-21 36-19 Tennessee Tech 18-36 49- 5 46- 8 Tennessee-Martin 20-35 48- 7 46- 9 Texas 40-19 27-32 30-29 Texas A&M 25-30 28-27 31-24 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 20-31 38-13 39-12 Texas Christian 38-21 43-16 39-20 Texas Southern 19-30 49- 1 47- 2 Texas State 29-30 40-19 38-21 Texas Tech 31-26 32-25 32-25 Texas-Arlington 29-34 40-23 40-23 Texas-Pan American 24-29 38-15 35-18 Texas-San Antonio 37-22 46-13 42-17 The Citadel 34-27 40-21 43-18 Toledo 26-27 41-12 42-11 Towson 20-34 38-16 41-13 Troy 45-14 38-21 42-17 Tulane 41-19 36-24 40-20 UC Davis 18-34 35-17 28-24 UC Irvine 36-22 34-24 29-29 UC Riverside 29-25 33-21 27-27 UC Santa Barbara 26-28 35-19 28-26 UCLA 32-23 26-29 25-30 Utah 28-28 50- 6 39-17 Utah Valley State 19-37 49- 7 38-18 Valparaiso 17-34 51- 1 44- 7 Vanderbilt 36-25 33-28 37-24 Vermont 19-34 44- 9 47- 6 Villanova 27-27 45- 9 47- 7 Virginia 46-13 37-22 42-17 Virginia Commonwealth 34-24 40-18 44-14 Virginia Military 30-25 47- 8 46- 9 Virginia Tech 20-33 29-24 34-19 Wagner 18-34 44- 8 49- 3 Wake Forest 33-22 28-27 34-21 Washington 36-25 40-21 32-29 Washington State 36-23 47-12 37-22 West Virginia 36-22 47-11 50- 8 Western Carolina 33-27 40-20 43-17 Western Illinois 32-32 59- 5 51-13 Western Kentucky 22-30 39-13 40-12 Western Michigan 30-22 39-13 40-12 Wichita State 44-20 44-20 45-19 William and Mary 23-29 39-13 43- 9 Winthrop 44-16 36-24 43-17 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 32-25 52- 5 48- 9 Wofford 20-37 42-15 43-14 Wright State 32-25 47-10 46-11 Xavier 19-37 45-11 45-11 Yale 26-19 41- 4 41- 4 Youngstown State 26-29 51- 4 47- 8
The first thing that comes to mind in looking at this for me is the sheer number of teams that essentially have no shot at an at large bid due purely to the weakness of their schedules; almost half of Division I is playing for the conference tournament. For most of the SWAC, it's literally impossible to win enough games, but the odds of going 51-4 are so slim that you might as well go ahead and eliminate Youngstown State (and the dozens of others in the same boat) before starting as well.
The second thing that comes to mind is the difference in judging by RPI and by ISR. Looking at Winthrop, for example, you see that they deserved a bid by ISR standards, but that they would have had to sweat a bit, clearing the bar by only one win rather than the eight wins that the RPI handed them. For most teams, the gap between the two systems isn't quite that wide, but BYU provides a good example in the other direction -- 50 wins was quite out of the question for that team, and I'm sure they knew it, while 40 wouldn't have required that many more breaks than they got.
Now, I actually had at least one coach ask for this type of analysis after the year last year, so I know that it does come up during scheduling consideration. As they say real fast on the radio, "past results are no guarantee of future performance", but if you're looking for a quick-and-dirty guide to how close you are to the postseason, this is a good place to start.
By the way, I added a couple of new pages in The Junk Drawer last week. There are now pages available with multiple links for all NCAA Division II and Division III teams.
If you're interested in reprinting this or any other Boyd's World material for your publication or Web site, please read the reprint policy and contact me
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