How Much More Do You Need to Do?

Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> How Much More Do You Need to Do? About the author, Boyd Nation

Publication Date: April 17, 2007

Opening disclaimer: This is an imperfect analysis of one factor of the tournament selection process. Meeting the criteria specified here is no guarantee of receiving a bid or a specific seed. My invitation to serve on the selection committee seems to have been lost in the mail; if I had received one, I wouldn't be pushing for RPI-based selection criteria during this century. Other factors such as conference placement and warm fuzziness need to be considered.

Earlier in the season, I took a look at what it would take to get into the RPI top 45 for each team if all of their scheduled opponents came out with the same winning percentage as last year. This time, I want to look at the rest of the season through that same lens with a bit more detail. What follows is a list of what it would take the rest of the way for each team that still has a chance of reaching the four major RPI thresholds -- top 8 (national seeds), top 16 (#1 seeds), top 32 (#2 seeds), and top 45 (at large cutoff) -- if everything else remained the same. In other words, if everybody else maintained exactly the same winning percentage (I know that's not technically possible, but work with me here), Alabama would have to go 13-5 the rest of the way to make it past the current #45 team. Notes follow at the end of the list, since some of the results are kind of surprising.

Team                      RPI    8     16     32     45

Alabama                    72  -----  -----  17-1   13-5 
Arizona                    22  18-0   14-4   11-7    7-11
Arizona State              17  15-2   10-7    7-10   3-14
Arkansas                    7  13-3    8-8    5-11   2-14
Auburn                     43  16-0   12-4    8-8    5-11
Baylor                     50  -----  15-2   12-5    8-9 
Cal Poly                   75  -----  -----  -----  18-0 
Cal State Fullerton        19  21-0   17-4   14-7   10-11
Central Florida            76  -----  -----  17-1   13-5 
Clemson                    28  17-3   13-7   10-10   6-14
Coastal Carolina           24  18-1   14-5   11-8    7-12
College of Charleston      15  -----  16-2   13-5    9-9 
Creighton                  54  -----  -----  -----  17-1 
Duke                       58  -----  -----  -----  14-1 
East Carolina              14  -----  14-3   11-6    7-10
Evansville                 48  -----  -----  14-2   11-5 
Florida                    36  -----  14-3   10-7    7-10
Florida Atlantic           62  -----  -----  -----  15-0 
Florida State              11  13-3    9-7    5-11   2-14
Georgia                   140  -----  -----  19-0   15-4 
Georgia Tech               53  -----  14-3   11-6    8-9 
Houston                    61  -----  -----  18-1   14-5 
Illinois State            101  -----  -----  -----  14-1 
Kansas State               32  -----  17-2   14-5   10-9 
Kentucky                   56  -----  -----  16-2   13-5 
Liberty                    85  -----  -----  -----  16-1 
Long Beach State            5  19-2   15-6   12-9    8-13
Louisiana State            39  17-0   13-4   10-7    6-11
Louisiana-Lafayette        12  18-0   13-5   10-8    6-12
Louisiana-Monroe           74  -----  -----  -----  16-0 
Louisville                 45  -----  19-0   16-3   13-6 
Maryland                  109  -----  -----  -----  15-1 
Memphis                    35  -----  18-0   15-3   11-7 
Miami, Florida             38  -----  14-2   11-5    7-9 
Michigan                   37  -----  -----  22-2   18-6 
Michigan State            114  -----  -----  -----  21-3 
Minnesota                  27  -----  -----  20-2   17-5 
Mississippi                16  12-5    8-9    5-12   1-16
Mississippi State           4  16-4   12-8    8-12   5-15
Missouri                   33  18-0   14-4   11-7    7-11
Missouri State            102  -----  -----  -----  17-2 
Nebraska                   29  18-0   14-4   11-7    8-10
New Orleans                83  -----  -----  -----  16-1 
North Carolina              9  13-4    9-8    5-12   2-15
North Carolina State       20  16-1   11-6    8-9    5-12
Ohio State                 82  -----  -----  -----  23-1 
Oklahoma                   18  17-0   13-4   10-7    6-11
Oklahoma State             60  -----  17-0   13-4   10-7 
Oregon State               26  -----  17-2   14-5   10-9 
Penn State                 93  -----  -----  -----  22-0 
Pepperdine                 21  -----  12-3    9-6    6-9 
Rice                        2  10-5    6-9    3-12   0-15
Rutgers                    80  -----  -----  -----  19-0 
San Diego                  23  -----  11-2    8-5    4-9 
South Alabama              90  -----  -----  -----  18-0 
South Carolina              1  11-7    7-11   4-14   0-18
South Florida              41  -----  15-2   12-5    8-9 
Southern California        47  -----  -----  16-2   12-6 
Southern Illinois          52  -----  -----  -----  16-2 
Southern Mississippi       31  -----  16-2   13-5    9-9 
St. John's                 77  -----  -----  -----  21-0 
Stanford                   73  -----  -----  -----  22-1 
Stetson                    30  -----  15-1   11-5    8-8 
Tennessee                  88  -----  -----  17-1   14-4 
Texas                       8   8-5    4-9    0-13   0-13
Texas A&M                   6  11-5    7-9    3-13   0-16
Texas Christian            55  -----  -----  -----  17-1 
Texas State                64  -----  -----  -----  17-0 
Texas Tech                 57  -----  -----  15-1   12-4 
Texas-San Antonio          59  -----  -----  -----  16-0 
The Citadel                65  -----  -----  -----  18-0 
Troy                       40  -----  -----  15-3   12-6 
Tulane                     44  -----  -----  -----  15-2 
UC Irvine                  25  -----  -----  17-2   13-6 
UC Riverside               67  -----  -----  -----  18-2 
UCLA                       51  -----  19-2   16-5   12-9 
Vanderbilt                  3  13-4    9-8    5-12   2-15
Virginia                   10  14-1   10-5    7-8    3-12
Virginia Tech              46  -----  -----  15-2   12-5 
Wake Forest                34  -----  16-0   12-4    9-7 
Washington                104  -----  -----  -----  21-0 
Washington State          119  -----  -----  -----  19-0 
Western Carolina           42  -----  -----  18-1   14-5 
Wichita State              13  22-0   17-5   13-9    9-13

While already-earned bonuses for big non-conference wins are included in the analysis, I didn't include any potential bonuses from this point forward. Because most of the remaining schedule is conference games, that's not a huge difference, but it might matter for a few teams, like Coastal Carolina's coming visit to Miami or Winthrop's visit to North Carolina. I also couldn't include the unknowns of the conference tournaments, of course, so this is regular season only.

There are 84 teams on this list. A few of them can probably be eliminated for other factors, such as the unlikeliness of them reaching .500 overall, so all but about 80 teams are probably playing for the conference tournament at this point.
Arizona, who has been red hot and has a reasonable chance of being the best team in the Pac 10, would have to go undefeated to make it to a national seed by this measure (that "by this measure" should be understood as included for all of this discussion, so I'll dispense with it here; I understand that it's needed). Oregon State actually has virtually no chance of making it to the top 8.
Even if you're in the top 8 now, it's hard to stay there -- Arkansas, currently #7, would have to go 13-3 the rest of the way, while Mississippi State, at an overrated #4, would have to go 16-4. Both look fairly solid for an overall #1, though.
Cal Poly, currently surprisingly in first in the Big West, would have to go undefeated the rest of the way to make it to #45. Central Florida, on the other hand, who's one spot behind them at the moment, only needs to go 13-5. UCF's schedule is actually a bit tougher, since they have all of the meat of C-USA left, but Cal Poly is suffering from the RPI's general dislike of the Big West.
Some mid-major teams are really hurt by their conference schedules down the stretch. College of Charleston has looked like a solid #1 for a while now and still sits at #15, but they'd have to go 16-2 the rest of the way to stay there. Minnesota has similarly looked like a solid #2 or borderline #1 for most of the year, but even at a current #27 they have no chance at a #1 seed and will have to just about run the table to get a #2 without depending on the kindness of strangers.
Florida State, despite the nation's best winning percentage, has such a weak schedule that they still haven't even clinched a tournament berth.
The RPI really doesn't like the rest of Long Beach State's schedule. They're probably going to have to win the Big West to get a national #1 seed, and even that may not be enough.
There are a few teams getting themselves in position to miss despite high RPI's. All of Auburn, LSU, and Wake Forest, for example, look very likely to finish at #45 or higher, but they're going to need to do a good bit to bolster their cases on other fronts (of those three, Wake probably has the best chance).
Oklahoma State has been suffering in the RPI's all year due to a weak non-conference slate, but they look like a secure at large bid, at least, if they can keep performing reasonably. That's going to be hard, though; the reason they only have to go 10-7 is that the rest of their Big 12 schedule is absolutely brutal.
There are several teams who could lay down the gloves now and still make it, but nobody looks all that secure for a national #1, with South Carolina probably having the best chance to coast.
Wichita State is another who will suffer for their relatively easy conference, as the hopes for a national #1 look bad right now.

There's no reason that I couldn't do this report automatically on a daily basis. Is there enough usefulness here to justify the small amount of effort it would take to set it up?

Tournament Watch

This means absolutely nothing, ignore it.

This is one generic layman's predictions for who gets in the tournament. I'm not going to bother picking a team from the one-bid conferences, since the conference tournament will just be a crapshoot, but if I only list one team from a conference, they'll get an at large bid if they don't get the automatic bid.

America East   Florida State         Michigan              Arizona State
A10            Clemson               Minnesota             UCLA
CAA            North Carolina State  Coastal Carolina      Arizona
Horizon        North Carolina        UC Irvine             South Carolina
Ivy            Virginia              UC Riverside          Kentucky
MAAC           Miami, Florida        Cal State Fullerton   Vanderbilt
MAC            Wake Forest           Long Beach State      Arkansas
MEAC           Stetson               East Carolina         Mississippi State
Mid-Continent  Texas                 Rice                  Mississippi
Mountain West  Oklahoma State        Southern Mississippi  Florida
NEC            Missouri              Memphis               College of Charleston
OVC            Oklahoma              Tulane                Western Carolina
Patriot        Texas A&M             Wichita State         Louisiana-Lafayette
Southland      Nebraska              Southern Illinois     Troy
SWAC           Kansas State          Evansville            Pepperdine
WAC            South Florida         Oregon State          San Diego

Pitch Count Watch

Rather than keep returning to the subject of pitch counts and pitcher usage in general too often for my main theme, I'm just going to run a standard feature down here where I point out potential problems; feel free to stop reading above this if the subject doesn't interest you. This will just be a quick listing of questionable starts that have caught my eye -- the general threshold for listing is 120 actual pitches or 130 estimated, although short rest will also get a pitcher listed if I catch it. Don't blame me; I'm just the messenger.

Date	Team	Pitcher	Opponent	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	AB	BF	Pitches
4/13	Arizona	Preston Guilmet	Stanford	9.0	5	1	1	1	15	33	36	139(*)
4/13	Boston College	Kevin Boggan	Maryland	8.0	2	1	1	5	3	25	34	123
4/13	Centenary	Brandon Fulenchek	Chicago State	8.1	7	1	1	1	6	31	32	123
4/13	Marshall	Jeremy Slone	East Carolina	6.0	8	4	4	3	5	27	30	126
4/13	Sacred Heart	Chris Howard	Fairleigh Dickinson	6.2	5	3	0	3	5	26	30	125
4/13	Fordham	Cory Riordan	Dayton	7.0	9	5	5	2	8	29	31	125
4/13	George Washington	Pat Lehman	Massachusetts	7.0	5	1	1	4	7	25	29	125
4/13	Indiana	Tyler Tufts	Purdue	8.0	13	4	4	2	6	35	39	132(*)
4/13	Michigan	Zach Putnam	Ohio State	8.1	9	4	4	7	1	28	38	133(*)
4/13	Texas-San Antonio	Josh Ruffin	Northwestern State	9.0	8	3	2	2	4	33	38	129
4/13	Villanova	Mike Loree	South Florida	9.0	9	2	2	5	6	34	41	160
4/13	Texas State	Justin Fiske	Southeastern Louisiana	9.0	2	0	0	5	13	29	34	140(*)
4/13	Stony Brook	Tom Koehler	Hartford	8.0	6	4	2	4	10	31	36	137(*)
4/13	Virginia Tech	Greg Fryman	Florida State	5.2	15	14	13	4	3	31	37	135
4/13	Boston College	Nate Jeanes	Maryland	7.0	8	3	2	1	11	28	29	132
4/13	Calumet	Kwiatkowski	IUPU-Fort Wayne	6.0	21	19	10	2	2	41	44	139(*)
4/14	Arizona	Brad Mills	Stanford	9.0	7	1	1	1	4	32	33	126
4/14	Arkansas-Little Rock	Ashur Tolliver	Florida Atlantic	8.0	7	2	1	2	10	30	32	130
4/14	Wofford	Ben Austin	Davidson	8.0	7	2	2	2	9	29	31	131
4/14	Florida A&M	Cirilo Manego	Delaware State	7.1	12	9	7	4	7	29	38	129
4/14	Wagner	Joe Testa	Mount St. Mary's	8.0	9	5	2	1	11	33	35	125
4/14	Northwestern State	Heath Hennigan	Texas-San Antonio	9.0	5	1	1	4	10	31	36	135
4/14	Eastern Michigan	George Biddle	Ohio	9.0	7	0	0	3	6	33	37	128
4/14	Georgia State	Will Palmer	Virginia Commonwealth	7.0	12	6	3	3	2	28	31	133
4/14	Villanova	Jordan Ellis	South Florida	8.0	7	2	2	3	2	29	33	124
4/14	McNeese State	Chris Denton	Texas-Arlington	9.0	6	3	3	5	3	30	37	125
4/14	Texas A&M	Kyle Nicholson	Missouri	9.0	7	1	0	2	6	31	36	131
4/14	Arkansas	Nick Schmidt	Florida	7.0	7	3	3	4	7	25	32	130
4/14	Oklahoma	Stephen Porlier	Nebraska	9.0	4	0	0	0	6	30	32	123
4/14	New Mexico State	Brian Gausman	Northern Colorado	8.2	14	6	6	4	6	37	43	146
4/14	Lamar	Allen Harrington	Sam Houston State	7.0	6	3	3	5	3	24	30	125
4/15	Florida A&M	Timothy Schalch	Delaware State	9.0	12	5	4	4	6	40	44	143
4/15	Xavier	Charlie Leesman	Duquesne	7.0	7	3	3	4	3	26	31	122
4/15	Florida	Bryan Augenstein	Arkansas	6.2	9	6	6	4	4	28	34	142
4/15	Texas Christian	Chance Corgan	Nevada-Las Vegas	5.2	8	3	3	4	4	23	30	121
4/15	Dayton	Quinn Haselhorst	Fordham	7.1	8	6	3	4	8	31	36	121
4/17	Utah Valley State	Marcus Moore	Utah	8.0	11	4	4	2	5	33	35	131
4/18	Notre Dame	Sam Elam	Purdue	9.0	1	0	0	6	9	26	33	132(*)

(*) Pitch count is estimated. As always, I welcome actual pitch count corrections.

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Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> How Much More Do You Need to Do? About the author, Boyd Nation