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Publication Date: May 20, 2003
Here We Go
You know the format by now (and if you don't, this ain't rocket science), so I'm just gonna grab another glass of sweet tea and get on with it.
The legend for the status column:
I - Already in
A - Certain of an at-large bid
BI - Currently in, but still on the bubble
BO - Currently out, but on the bubble
T - Must win tournament
One Bid Conferences
The listed team is either the bid recipient (I) or the #1 seed for the conference tournament (1).
America East - Vermont (1) Horizon - Illinois-Chicago (1) Ivy - Princeton (I) MAAC - LeMoyne (1) MAC - Kent State (1) Mid-Continent - Oral Roberts (1) MEAC - Bethune-Cookman (I) NEC - Central Connecticut State (I) OVC - Austin Peay State (1) Patriot - Bucknell (I) Southern - Western Carolina (1) SWAC - Southern (I) WCC - Pepperdine (1)
Of these, I think Western Carolina and Pepperdine are the closest to at large bids, but I think they both just miss out.
At Least One Bid
In these, the team listed will get an at large bid if they don't win the tournament, so bubble teams should root for these guys. Miami, Florida's in as well. I'm guessing there are three bids taken up either in these conferences or in the ones listed below as bubble or tournament only.
A10 - Richmond Big South - Coastal Carolina
Team Conf All ISR RPI Status Florida State 19-5 47-8 7 1 A Georgia Tech 17-7 39-15 17 3 A North Carolina State 15-9 39-14 22 12 A Clemson 15-9 38-18 26 9 A North Carolina 13-11 37-19 49 17 A Virginia 11-12 28-23 59 22 BI Wake Forest 8-15 29-22 83 50 BO
Team Conf All ISR RPI Status Florida Atlantic 25-8 44-12 28 25 A Stetson 21-12 35-20 56 46 BO
Team Conf All ISR RPI Status Rutgers 19-6 33-18 98 56 BI West Virginia 18-6 35-17 93 39 A Notre Dame 16-7 40-15 72 54 BI Virginia Tech 15-10 34-21 109 75 T
Here's the wild card in the deck. Last year, there were no snow bids. I have no idea if that will continue this year. If it does, then I'd guess we get West Virginia and the tournament winner. I'm guessing that Notre Dame doesn't get left out, though, so I'm guessing that Rutgers doesn't either.
Team Conf All ISR RPI Status Minnesota 24-6 37-18 31 35 A Ohio State 20-12 37-18 70 64 BO
See above, but there's no compelling reason to put OSU in.
Team Conf All ISR RPI Status Nebraska 20-7 42-14 10 14 A Texas A&M 19-8 41-15 8 13 A Texas 19-8 38-16 6 11 A Missouri 15-11 34-18 25 29 A Baylor 15-12 37-19 9 10 A Oklahoma State 14-13 32-22 38 40 BI Oklahoma 10-17 22-29 58 61 T Kansas 9-18 34-26 46 53 BO
Team Conf All ISR RPI Status Long Beach State 16-5 37-16 4 15 I Cal State Fullerton 15-6 43-13 2 8 A UC Riverside 14-7 40-15 11 42 A
Team Conf All ISR RPI Status Virginia Commonwealth 17-3 41-11 60 41 BI North Carolina-Wilmington 15-6 36-19 85 47 BO
Team Conf All ISR RPI Status Southern Mississippi 23-7 41-14 19 23 A Texas Christian 22-8 35-20 36 60 A Tulane 20-10 40-16 27 30 A Houston 18-12 31-25 37 33 A East Carolina 17-13 31-23 73 55 BO South Florida 14-14 30-24 97 91 T Louisville 14-15 32-21 75 72 T
Team Conf All ISR RPI Status Southwest Missouri State 19-11 33-21 53 58 BI Wichita State 19-13 42-23 52 78 BO
Team Conf All ISR RPI Status Nevada-Las Vegas 24-6 41-15 16 38 A San Diego State 18-12 26-30 69 108 T Brigham Young 18-12 28-22 54 90 T New Mexico 17-13 34-24 48 69 BO
This is a shame, but I think they correctly end up with only one bid if UNLV wins the tournament.
Team Conf All ISR RPI Status Stanford 18-6 38-15 3 5 I Arizona State 13-7 47-11 5 20 A Arizona 13-7 35-17 12 26 A Washington 11-9 36-16 18 94 BI Southern California 11-10 28-24 15 31 BI
I think Washington has the biggest difference between their ISR and RPI that I've ever seen. They got in with a similar but smaller split last year, so I think they have a chance.
Team Conf All ISR RPI Status Louisiana State 20-9 37-18 14 6 A South Carolina 19-11 38-18 35 21 A Auburn 18-12 38-17 13 2 A Mississippi State 17-12 38-16 23 16 A Mississippi 17-13 33-23 45 34 A Vanderbilt 14-16 27-26 82 65 T Alabama 14-16 33-22 39 19 BI Arkansas 14-16 34-18 33 27 BI
Team Conf All ISR RPI Status Lamar 20-6 37-14 20 36 A Southwest Texas State 19-7 29-26 44 59 BO Texas-Arlington 18-9 33-23 29 43 BI Northwestern State 16-11 35-20 40 57 BO
There were a couple of signs last year that the committee was becoming willing to ignore conference standings in some cases; I think that may happen here given reasonable results in the tournament.
Team Conf All ISR RPI Status South Alabama 17-7 39-15 24 18 A New Mexico State 15-9 42-14 41 45 A Louisiana-Lafayette 15-9 28-28 68 48 BO Western Kentucky 12-11 31-21 87 77 T Florida International 12-12 34-21 77 44 T
Team Conf All ISR RPI Status Rice 23-4 46-9 1 7 I Nevada 17-9 30-23 32 62 BI
Seeds and Hosts
The national #1 seeds, in no particular order:
Florida State Stanford Louisiana State Rice Cal State Fullerton Nebraska Long Beach State Arizona State
Long Beach is an interesting case -- bad RPI and geographically too close to Fullerton (can they stand the attendance hit from two L. A. regionals?), but they do have that conference title to lean back on, and if they beat Miami this weekend, they really look good.
The other eight #1 seeds:
Miami, Florida Georgia Tech Texas A&M Texas Auburn South Carolina North Carolina State Mississippi State
It's quite conceivable that all of these teams could host (some of them, in fact, are more likely to host than to be a #1 seed). There are the aforementioned L. A. problems to deal with, but the biggest question is whether any Northern bids to host were received. I suspect that Richmond, for example, could host if they wanted to. If they do, I suspect that Mississippi State is the most likely in the above list to not host.
Pitch Count Watch
Rather than keep returning to the subject of pitch counts and pitcher usage in general too often for my main theme, I'm just going to run a standard feature down here where I point out potential problems; feel free to stop reading above this if the subject doesn't interest you. This will just be a quick listing of questionable starts that have caught my eye -- the general threshold for listing is 120 actual pitches or 130 estimated, although short rest will also get a pitcher listed if I catch it. Don't blame me; I'm just the messenger.
|May 15||Rhode Island||Jared Trout||George Washington||8.0||7||4||3||7||5||28||38||144|
|May 15||North Carolina-Charlotte||Zachary Treadway||Cincinnati||9.0||6||5||5||3||8||33||37||144 (*)|
|May 15||Creighton||Tom Oldham||Bradley||6.2||6||4||4||5||8||23||29||129|
|May 15||Evansville||Wes Davis||Wichita State||8.0||4||5||5||7||4||29||36||140|
|May 15||Georgia Southern||Dennis Dove||East Tennessee State||7.0||6||1||1||5||9||28||33||130|
|May 15||East Tennessee State||Tim Turner||Georgia Southern||6.2||9||10||5||3||9||29||33||123|
|May 16||George Washington||Conden||Massachusetts||7.0||6||3||3||8||10||26||35||129|
|May 16||George Washington||Pfau||Rhode Island||9.0||8||4||4||2||13||33||38||130|
|May 16||Baylor||Steven White||Nebraska||8.0||8||6||6||2||4||30||35||129|
|May 16||Nebraska||Aaron Marsden||Baylor||9.0||6||2||2||1||12||32||34||131|
|May 16||Villanova||Tom Kandybowicz||Rutgers||7.0||10||5||5||3||7||28||33||142|
|May 16||Boston College||Chris Lambert||West Virginia||7.0||5||4||3||3||7||26||30||123|
|May 16||Iona||Chris Lopez||Marist||7.2||10||5||4||3||7||33||36||145 (*)|
|May 16||Western Michigan||Brad Mumma||Ball State||7.2||7||2||2||4||9||30||35||136|
|May 16||Davidson||Andy Carter||North Carolina-Greensboro||7.0||5||0||0||3||5||25||29||123|
|May 16||Appalachian State||Nick Peterson||Wofford||8.0||4||6||4||5||3||29||34||143|
|May 17||Massachusetts||Keith Doherty||Xavier||6.0||4||5||2||4||5||23||27||122|
|May 17||Xavier||Sean Finnegan||Massachusetts||6.1||9||6||5||6||7||24||33||139|
|May 17||Wake Forest||Seth Hill||Clemson||9.0||10||4||4||6||2||35||42||148 (*)|
|May 17||Texas A&M||Kyle Parcus||Texas||7.2||6||3||3||3||8||27||31||129|
|May 17||Villanova||John Yeager||Rutgers||9.0||9||2||1||1||2||33||36||121|
|May 17||West Virginia||Cline||Boston College||9.0||7||5||5||1||11||34||37||147 (*)|
|May 17||Long Beach State||Jered Weaver||Cal State Fullerton||9.0||4||1||1||1||9||30||32||120|
|May 17||Creighton||Steve Grasley||Bradley||9.0||6||0||0||0||13||33||36||125|
|May 17||Arizona||Richie Gardner||Oregon State||8.0||8||6||4||2||4||32||35||136|
|May 17||Alabama||Brent Carter||Mississippi State||9.0||11||7||2||1||8||38||40||122|
|May 17||Georgia Southern||John Carroll||East Tennessee State||8.0||4||3||3||3||13||27||31||135|
|May 17||Davidson||Matt Hood||North Carolina-Greensboro||6.0||4||5||4||5||2||22||29||121|
|May 17||St. Mary's||Eric Bowden||Santa Clara||8.0||11||7||4||2||6||35||39||145 (*)|
|May 18||Texas Tech||Steve Gooch||Oklahoma State||8.0||6||4||1||1||3||29||31||124|
|May 18||Oklahoma||Buddy Blair||Missouri||8.0||5||0||0||3||6||29||34||123|
|May 18||Cal State Northridge||Leo Rosales||Pacific||9.0||13||3||3||3||10||38||42||156 (*)|
|May 18||Arizona||Sean Rierson||Oregon State||9.0||8||4||3||0||7||35||36||121|
(*) Pitch count is estimated.
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