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My Best Guess

Publication Date: May 20, 2003

Here We Go

You know the format by now (and if you don't, this ain't rocket science), so I'm just gonna grab another glass of sweet tea and get on with it.

The legend for the status column:

I - Already in
A - Certain of an at-large bid
BI - Currently in, but still on the bubble
BO - Currently out, but on the bubble
T - Must win tournament

One Bid Conferences

The listed team is either the bid recipient (I) or the #1 seed for the conference tournament (1). 

America East - Vermont (1)
Horizon - Illinois-Chicago (1)
Ivy - Princeton (I)
MAAC - LeMoyne (1)
MAC - Kent State (1)
Mid-Continent - Oral Roberts (1)
MEAC - Bethune-Cookman (I)
NEC - Central Connecticut State (I)
OVC - Austin Peay State (1)
Patriot - Bucknell (I)
Southern - Western Carolina (1)
SWAC - Southern (I)
WCC - Pepperdine (1)

Of these, I think Western Carolina and Pepperdine are the closest to at large bids, but I think they both just miss out.

At Least One Bid

In these, the team listed will get an at large bid if they don't win the tournament, so bubble teams should root for these guys. Miami, Florida's in as well. I'm guessing there are three bids taken up either in these conferences or in the ones listed below as bubble or tournament only. 

A10 - Richmond
Big South - Coastal Carolina

ACC 

Team                        Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Status

Florida State               19-5   47-8     7    1     A
Georgia Tech                17-7   39-15   17    3     A
North Carolina State        15-9   39-14   22   12     A
Clemson                     15-9   38-18   26    9     A
North Carolina              13-11  37-19   49   17     A
Virginia                    11-12  28-23   59   22     BI
Wake Forest                  8-15  29-22   83   50     BO

Atlantic Sun 

Team                        Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Status

Florida Atlantic            25-8   44-12   28   25     A
Stetson                     21-12  35-20   56   46     BO

Big East 

Team                        Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Status

Rutgers                     19-6   33-18   98   56     BI
West Virginia               18-6   35-17   93   39     A
Notre Dame                  16-7   40-15   72   54     BI
Virginia Tech               15-10  34-21  109   75     T

Here's the wild card in the deck. Last year, there were no snow bids. I have no idea if that will continue this year. If it does, then I'd guess we get West Virginia and the tournament winner. I'm guessing that Notre Dame doesn't get left out, though, so I'm guessing that Rutgers doesn't either.

Big Ten 

Team                        Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Status

Minnesota                   24-6   37-18   31   35     A
Ohio State                  20-12  37-18   70   64     BO

See above, but there's no compelling reason to put OSU in.

Big 12 

Team                        Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Status

Nebraska                    20-7   42-14   10   14     A
Texas A&M                   19-8   41-15    8   13     A
Texas                       19-8   38-16    6   11     A
Missouri                    15-11  34-18   25   29     A
Baylor                      15-12  37-19    9   10     A
Oklahoma State              14-13  32-22   38   40     BI
Oklahoma                    10-17  22-29   58   61     T
Kansas                       9-18  34-26   46   53     BO

Big West 

Team                        Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Status

Long Beach State            16-5   37-16    4   15     I
Cal State Fullerton         15-6   43-13    2    8     A
UC Riverside                14-7   40-15   11   42     A

CAA 

Team                        Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Status

Virginia Commonwealth       17-3   41-11   60   41     BI
North Carolina-Wilmington   15-6   36-19   85   47     BO

Conference USA 

Team                        Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Status

Southern Mississippi        23-7   41-14   19   23     A
Texas Christian             22-8   35-20   36   60     A
Tulane                      20-10  40-16   27   30     A
Houston                     18-12  31-25   37   33     A
East Carolina               17-13  31-23   73   55     BO
South Florida               14-14  30-24   97   91     T
Louisville                  14-15  32-21   75   72     T

MVC 

Team                        Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Status

Southwest Missouri State    19-11  33-21   53   58     BI
Wichita State               19-13  42-23   52   78     BO

Mountain West 

Team                        Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Status

Nevada-Las Vegas            24-6   41-15   16   38     A
San Diego State             18-12  26-30   69  108     T
Brigham Young               18-12  28-22   54   90     T
New Mexico                  17-13  34-24   48   69     BO

This is a shame, but I think they correctly end up with only one bid if UNLV wins the tournament.

Pac-10 

Team                        Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Status

Stanford                    18-6   38-15    3    5     I
Arizona State               13-7   47-11    5   20     A
Arizona                     13-7   35-17   12   26     A
Washington                  11-9   36-16   18   94     BI
Southern California         11-10  28-24   15   31     BI

I think Washington has the biggest difference between their ISR and RPI that I've ever seen. They got in with a similar but smaller split last year, so I think they have a chance.

SEC 

Team                        Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Status

Louisiana State             20-9   37-18   14    6     A
South Carolina              19-11  38-18   35   21     A
Auburn                      18-12  38-17   13    2     A
Mississippi State           17-12  38-16   23   16     A
Mississippi                 17-13  33-23   45   34     A
Vanderbilt                  14-16  27-26   82   65     T
Alabama                     14-16  33-22   39   19     BI
Arkansas                    14-16  34-18   33   27     BI

Southland 

Team                        Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Status

Lamar                       20-6   37-14   20   36     A
Southwest Texas State       19-7   29-26   44   59     BO
Texas-Arlington             18-9   33-23   29   43     BI
Northwestern State          16-11  35-20   40   57     BO

There were a couple of signs last year that the committee was becoming willing to ignore conference standings in some cases; I think that may happen here given reasonable results in the tournament.

Sun Belt 

Team                        Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Status

South Alabama               17-7   39-15   24   18     A
New Mexico State            15-9   42-14   41   45     A
Louisiana-Lafayette         15-9   28-28   68   48     BO
Western Kentucky            12-11  31-21   87   77     T
Florida International       12-12  34-21   77   44     T

WAC 

Team                        Conf    All   ISR  RPI   Status

Rice                        23-4   46-9     1    7     I
Nevada                      17-9   30-23   32   62     BI

Seeds and Hosts

The national #1 seeds, in no particular order: 

Florida State                 Stanford
Louisiana State               Rice
Cal State Fullerton           Nebraska
Long Beach State              Arizona State

Long Beach is an interesting case -- bad RPI and geographically too close to Fullerton (can they stand the attendance hit from two L. A. regionals?), but they do have that conference title to lean back on, and if they beat Miami this weekend, they really look good.

The other eight #1 seeds: 

Miami, Florida                Georgia Tech
Texas A&M                     Texas
Auburn                        South Carolina
North Carolina State          Mississippi State

It's quite conceivable that all of these teams could host (some of them, in fact, are more likely to host than to be a #1 seed). There are the aforementioned L. A. problems to deal with, but the biggest question is whether any Northern bids to host were received. I suspect that Richmond, for example, could host if they wanted to. If they do, I suspect that Mississippi State is the most likely in the above list to not host.

Pitch Count Watch

Rather than keep returning to the subject of pitch counts and pitcher usage in general too often for my main theme, I'm just going to run a standard feature down here where I point out potential problems; feel free to stop reading above this if the subject doesn't interest you. This will just be a quick listing of questionable starts that have caught my eye -- the general threshold for listing is 120 actual pitches or 130 estimated, although short rest will also get a pitcher listed if I catch it. Don't blame me; I'm just the messenger.

Date   Team   Pitcher   Opponent   IP   H   R   ER   BB   SO   AB   BF   Pitches
May 15 Rhode Island Jared Trout George Washington 8.0 7 4 3 7 5 28 38 144
May 15 North Carolina-Charlotte Zachary Treadway Cincinnati 9.0 6 5 5 3 8 33 37 144 (*)
May 15 Creighton Tom Oldham Bradley 6.2 6 4 4 5 8 23 29 129
May 15 Evansville Wes Davis Wichita State 8.0 4 5 5 7 4 29 36 140
May 15 Georgia Southern Dennis Dove East Tennessee State 7.0 6 1 1 5 9 28 33 130
May 15 East Tennessee State Tim Turner Georgia Southern 6.2 9 10 5 3 9 29 33 123
May 16 George Washington Conden Massachusetts 7.0 6 3 3 8 10 26 35 129
May 16 George Washington Pfau Rhode Island 9.0 8 4 4 2 13 33 38 130
May 16 Baylor Steven White Nebraska 8.0 8 6 6 2 4 30 35 129
May 16 Nebraska Aaron Marsden Baylor 9.0 6 2 2 1 12 32 34 131
May 16 Villanova Tom Kandybowicz Rutgers 7.0 10 5 5 3 7 28 33 142
May 16 Boston College Chris Lambert West Virginia 7.0 5 4 3 3 7 26 30 123
May 16 Iona Chris Lopez Marist 7.2 10 5 4 3 7 33 36 145 (*)
May 16 Western Michigan Brad Mumma Ball State 7.2 7 2 2 4 9 30 35 136
May 16 Davidson Andy Carter North Carolina-Greensboro 7.0 5 0 0 3 5 25 29 123
May 16 Appalachian State Nick Peterson Wofford 8.0 4 6 4 5 3 29 34 143
May 17 Massachusetts Keith Doherty Xavier 6.0 4 5 2 4 5 23 27 122
May 17 Xavier Sean Finnegan Massachusetts 6.1 9 6 5 6 7 24 33 139
May 17 Wake Forest Seth Hill Clemson 9.0 10 4 4 6 2 35 42 148 (*)
May 17 Texas A&M Kyle Parcus Texas 7.2 6 3 3 3 8 27 31 129
May 17 Villanova John Yeager Rutgers 9.0 9 2 1 1 2 33 36 121
May 17 West Virginia Cline Boston College 9.0 7 5 5 1 11 34 37 147 (*)
May 17 Long Beach State Jered Weaver Cal State Fullerton 9.0 4 1 1 1 9 30 32 120
May 17 Creighton Steve Grasley Bradley 9.0 6 0 0 0 13 33 36 125
May 17 Arizona Richie Gardner Oregon State 8.0 8 6 4 2 4 32 35 136
May 17 Alabama Brent Carter Mississippi State 9.0 11 7 2 1 8 38 40 122
May 17 Georgia Southern John Carroll East Tennessee State 8.0 4 3 3 3 13 27 31 135
May 17 Davidson Matt Hood North Carolina-Greensboro 6.0 4 5 4 5 2 22 29 121
May 17 St. Mary's Eric Bowden Santa Clara 8.0 11 7 4 2 6 35 39 145 (*)
May 18 Texas Tech Steve Gooch Oklahoma State 8.0 6 4 1 1 3 29 31 124
May 18 Oklahoma Buddy Blair Missouri 8.0 5 0 0 3 6 29 34 123
May 18 Cal State Northridge Leo Rosales Pacific 9.0 13 3 3 3 10 38 42 156 (*)
May 18 Arizona Sean Rierson Oregon State 9.0 8 4 3 0 7 35 36 121

(*) Pitch count is estimated.

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