Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Who's In?

About the author, Boyd Nation

Who's In?

I'll get to the field in a minute, but I wanted to say a quick word on a couple of the conference races that wrapped up last weekend. The SEC had one for the ages, with six teams going into the final weekend within a game of each other. The only unsatisfactory part of it was that it ended in a tie between two teams that hadn't played each other. In the ACC, A previously mediocre Georgia Tech team caught fire down the stretch culminating in a sweep of Maryland over the weekend to pass Virginia by half a game (although the Cavaliers' idleness was another emotional weak point). The Pac 10 comes down to next weekend, with Stanford the most likely winner but with Washington still having a good chance, ASU having a slight chance, and there being a tiny chance of a three-way tie with Stanford in fourth. All told, it was a good weekend to watch baseball.

I'm going to change the format away from the conference-based system I've used in the past. That's because there's some reasonable evidence the past couple of years that the committee isn't paying as much attention to the conference standings as they used to (they still pay too much, but it's not an absolute thing any more).

While some would say that there's a lot of baseball left to play, there's not really -- just 5% or less of the season for most teams. What there is left, though, will be absurdly overemphasized by the committee, which means that predictions will be hard-put to stay accurate. Here's my best guess for the national seeds, though:

#1 Miami, Florida (ISR #11, RPI #1)
#2 Texas (#2, #2)
#3 Louisiana State (#8, #4)
#4 Stanford (#1, #15
#5 South Carolina (#14, #5)
#6 Rice (#4, #8)
#7 Mississippi (#13, #6)
#8 East Carolina (#9, #10)

• Similarly to Washington's from last year, Stanford's RPI is so obviously wrong that the committee will have to ignore it. That won't get them to ignore Miami's, which is probably just as wrong. I keep thinking one of these cases will be the one that gets them to toss the thing, but it won't happen this year. Nonetheless, the Cardinal get a high seed.

• Many of the top 8 RPI teams are facing each other this weekend. Somebody's got to lose in Birmingham, and Florida's got a vaguely tougher bracket, but any of USC East, Ole Miss, or Florida could end up on this list; for that matter, if Arkansas or Georgia win the conference or look good in reaching the final game, they may end up here instead. Likewise, if Arizona State wins the series at Stanford this weekend, they're here, probably displacing ECU.

• Virginia or Georgia Tech could play themselves onto this list.

• All the national seeds will host. All of these teams will host unless Mississippi or East Carolina goes 2-and-q.

Now, the non-national #1 seeds:

Arizona State (#3, #3)
Florida (#18, #7)
Virginia (#22, #9)
Georgia (#20, #11)
Georgia Tech (#21, #13)
Arkansas (#16, #14)
Cal State Fullerton (#7, #20)
Notre Dame (#29, #21)

• If Long Beach State beats Miami this weekend, they move in here. Otherwise, they get sent back to Stanford, and life is unfair once again.

• Again, someone's got to lose in Birmingham, so unless Tennessee and Vanderbilt are the 0-2 teams, somebody on this list probably drops to a #2 seed.

• Notre Dame's a reach, but a good showing this weekend pushes them up around #17 or #18, and a couple of teams ahead of them (Texas A&M, Clemson) have conference standing issues.

• If Washington wins the Pac 10, they're a #1 seed.

• I only expect four SEC teams to be allowed to host, as a counterweight against the nine bids I expect, so the bottom two (we'll say Arkansas and Georgia, but that won't be clear until later in the weekend) won't get to host even if they get a #1 seed. I also expect Virginia to not host. Filling those three spots will be Florida State, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M.

Now, the #2 seeds:

Florida State (#27, #12)
Texas A&M (#10, #16)
Clemson (#42, #17)
Vanderbilt (#17, #18)
North Carolina State (#46, #19)
Long Beach State (#4, #22)
Oklahoma (#19, #23)
Tennessee (#41, #24)
Texas Tech (#25, #25)
UC Irvine (#12, #27)
Washington (#6, #28)
Southern Mississippi (#26, #29)
North Carolina (#45, #30)
Central Florida (#49, #32)
Arizona (#15, #34)
Oral Roberts (#28, #36)

• There are obviously some teams here you don't want to see coming to your town.

#3 seeds:

Mississippi State (#37, #26)
Wichita State (#30, #37)
Florida Atlantic (#58, #35)
Nebraska (#33, #33)
Oklahoma State (#43, #38)
Minnesota (#59, #55)
Pittsburgh (#72, #53)
Birmingham-Southern (#52, #41)
Coastal Carolina (#70, #44)
Tulane (#38, #39)
UCLA (#23, #49)
Lamar (#32, #43)
Texas Christian (#54, #45)
CAA winner
Houston (#55, #48)
Texas State (#53, #50)

#4 seeds:

America East winner
Atlantic 10 winner
CAA runner-up
Horizon winner
MAAC winner
MAC winner
Mountain West winner
NEC winner
OVC winner
College of Charleston
Sun Belt winner
WCC winner
Texas Southern
Army
Bethune-Cookman
Princeton

• Five teams in but on the bubble: George Mason and UNC-Wilmington (listed above as generic CAA teams), Texas State, and the last two C-USA teams. Unfortunately, UCLA could also be on this list.

• Those waiting to take their place with a good week: St. John's, South Alabama, Missouri, Oregon State, and Middle Tennessee State.

• Best teams that will most likely be sitting at home: Oregon State or UCLA, San Diego, Loyola Marymount if they lose, UC Riverside, Washington State, Cal Poly, Southern California, UC Santa Barbara, Baylor, and Auburn. Those noting a geographical trend in this list will be derided as partisan, even if they live in places with a drawl.

Rather than keep returning to the subject of pitch counts and pitcher usage in general too often for my main theme, I'm just going to run a standard feature down here where I point out potential problems; feel free to stop reading above this if the subject doesn't interest you. This will just be a quick listing of questionable starts that have caught my eye -- the general threshold for listing is 120 actual pitches or 130 estimated, although short rest will also get a pitcher listed if I catch it. Don't blame me; I'm just the messenger.

(*) Pitch count is estimated.

If you're interested in reprinting this or any other Boyd's World material for your publication or Web site, please read the reprint policy and contact me

Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Who's In?

About the author, Boyd Nation