Who Gets to Dance?

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Who Gets to Dance?

Publication Date: May 24, 2005

Got That Old Familiar Feeling

This could be a fun year (OK, it's already been a fun year; it could be a fun tournament as well). I don't really have a clear favorite at this point -- I see Oregon State, Tulane, Texas, and Fullerton as reasonable choices right now. The fact that two of those are not exactly teams you traditionally think of as national powers makes it even more fun. Let's see what it will most likely look like, without the benefit of the last week of games having been played.

First of all, of course, the national seeds, all of whom will host:

#1 Texas (ISR #3, RPI #1)
#2 Tulane (#4, #2)
#3 Georgia Tech (#22, #4)
#4 Cal State Fullerton (#2, #8)
#5 Baylor (#11, #7)
#6 Florida (#23, #12)
#7 Oregon State (#1, #13)
#8 Louisiana State (#12, #14)

I don't think we'll end up with an exact copy of 2003, where they just took the RPI top 8, this time, because North Carolina almost certainly won't be a national seed and will be in the top 8.
Of these, I'd say that LSU, Florida, and Baylor are the most vulnerable, in that order.
Waiting to take their place, I'd say Miami moves back in with a good showing this week, Clemson could have actually moved themselves into this conversation, and Ole Miss might move up if they play on Sunday.
There are a few West Coast teams who probably should be in this discussion -- Long Beach State and Southern California, mostly -- but I think the RPI and second-place or lower conference finishes probably keep them out.

The rest of the #1's:

Mississippi (#7, #3)
Miami, Florida (#20, #5)
Clemson (#19, #9)
College of Charleston (#10, #17)
Long Beach State (#6, #16)
Southern California (#5, #18)
Arizona (#8, #29)
Nebraska (#10, #22)

I think all of these but USC West and Long Beach get to host.
The edge grouping here is the two Pac 10 teams from this list and Nebraska on the top side, with Florida State, UNC, and Coastal Carolina on the underside.

The #2 seeds:

North Carolina (#25, #6)
North Carolina State (#28, #11)
Coastal Carolina (#24, #15)
Arkansas (#21, #19)
Florida State (#26, #23)
South Carolina (#35, #25)
Alabama (#32, #26)
Rice (#14, #27)
Tennessee (#36, #28)
Arizona State (#13, #20)
Winthrop (#46, #30)
Southern Mississippi (#33, #32)
Mississippi State (#40, #33)
Northwestern State (#30, #34)
Pepperdine (#9, #35)
Louisiana-Lafayette (#39, #37)

Rice and Florida State take the last two hosting spots.

The #3 seeds:

Auburn (#43, #17)
Vanderbilt (#41, #24)
Texas Christian (#34, #36)
Oklahoma (#42, #38)
Stanford (#15, #39)
East Carolina (#51, #40)
Wichita State (#38, #41)
Creighton (#37, #53)
Illinois (#87, #70)
Michigan (#48, #43)
Florida Atlantic (#56, #44)
Troy (#62, #62)
North Carolina-Wilmington (#74, #46)
Cal Poly (#16, #59)
San Francisco (#18, #58)
St. John's (#92, #47)

#4's:

America East winner
Atlantic 10 winner
CAA winner
Horizon winner
MAAC winner
MAC winner
Mid-Continent winner
Mountain West winner
NEC winner
OVC winner
Southern (#168, #138)
Army (#123, #89)
North Carolina A&T (#213, #229)
Harvard (#158, #102)
Georgia Southern (#63, #48)
Missouri (#44, #50)

Last five in: Georgia Southern, Missouri, San Francisco, UNC-Wilmington, and St. John's.
Last five out: UC Irvine, California, Oklahoma State, Miami (OH), and Texas Tech.
Best teams that won't make it: USF, Cal, and Irvine if they don't, Georgia, Texas A&M, Loyola Marymount. This is actually a much better list than usual.

Pitch Count Watch

Rather than keep returning to the subject of pitch counts and pitcher usage in general too often for my main theme, I'm just going to run a standard feature down here where I point out potential problems; feel free to stop reading above this if the subject doesn't interest you. This will just be a quick listing of questionable starts that have caught my eye -- the general threshold for listing is 120 actual pitches or 130 estimated, although short rest will also get a pitcher listed if I catch it. Don't blame me; I'm just the messenger.

Date	Team	Pitcher	Opponent	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	AB	BF	Pitches
May 13	Mississippi	Mark Holliman	South Carolina	9.0	5	2	2	3	13	32	35	147(*)
May 20	Alabama	LeBlanc	Auburn	7.0	10	4	4	1	6	30	32	122
May 20	Washington	Tim Lincecum	Arizona State	9.0	7	4	4	7	13	29	40	165
May 20	Florida	Alan Horne	Vanderbilt	8.0	11	4	4	2	4	34	38	142
May 20	Fairfield	Tim Dugan	Manhattan	9.0	9	2	2	3	8	32	36	135(*)
May 20	Morehead State	Shane Lucci	Eastern Kentucky	7.2	12	10	9	4	4	34	41	148(*)
May 20	Arkansas State	Taylor Fowler	New Orleans	8.0	9	3	3	3	9	32	36	146(*)
May 20	New York Tech	Michael Striker	Utah Valley State	8.2	10	2	2	3	2	33	37	124
May 20	Southwest Missouri State	Brett Sinkbeil	Northern Iowa	9.0	6	1	1	2	12	34	37	133
May 20	Ohio	D. Witt	Akron	8.0	10	8	5	4	6	32	38	144
May 20	Chicago State	J. Duncan	Oral Roberts	9.0	10	6	4	3	3	35	40	138(*)
May 20	Georgetown	Braun	Pittsburgh	9.0	5	5	5	7	10	30	38	144(*)
May 20	Indiana	Josh Lewis	Purdue	9.0	11	5	2	3	6	34	38	124
May 20	South Dakota State	Francisco Torres	Northern Colorado	7.0	10	3	2	3	5	30	34	131
May 20	UCLA	Hector Ambriz	Washington State	8.1	8	2	2	4	4	31	36	138
May 20	Virginia Tech	Jake Chaney	Wake Forest	7.1	11	6	6	2	3	32	36	129
May 20	Wofford	Jesse Cole	Western Carolina	7.2	6	5	5	7	3	28	35	126
May 21	Western Michigan	Dan O'Brien	Bowling Green State	9.0	8	1	1	2	9	34	38	148(*)
May 21	Cleveland State	Matt Kaltenbach	Butler	8.0	12	6	5	1	9	37	39	135
May 21	Indiana State	Andrew Galle	Evansville	9.0	4	2	2	4	10	30	36	139
May 21	Vanderbilt	Price	Florida	7.0	2	0	0	2	11	23	25	123
May 21	Ohio	Gressick	Akron	9.0	4	0	0	5	6	31	36	135
May 21	Kansas	Mike Zagurski	Oklahoma State	7.0	10	4	4	3	6	28	33	125
May 21	Cal State Sacramento	M. Campbell	Pacific	7.0	10	2	1	3	2	26	31	124
May 21	Utah Valley State	Jed Jensen	Northern Colorado	6.2	15	10	10	2	4	33	35	121
May 21	Quinnipiac	P. Egan	Wagner	9.0	7	6	4	5	8	34	41	150(*)
May 22	Iona	Chris Lopez	Marist	7.2	9	6	1	6	2	30	40	129
May 22	Baylor	Van Allen	Missouri	7.1	5	3	2	3	9	25	29	123
May 22	Quinnipiac	Chris Wakefield	Sacred Heart	9.0	1	0	0	8	5	28	36	144(*)
May 21	Southern	Jose Pena	Texas Southern	9.0	8	2	0	2	12	33	37	142(*)

The Holliman count from the 13th is a correction.

(*) Pitch count is estimated.

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Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Who Gets to Dance? About the author, Boyd Nation