Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Denial Week -- My 2006 Field

About the author, Boyd Nation

Out of Denial -- What Will Actually Happen

OK, enough of sticking my head in the sand; let's look at the field that'll actually be getting ready to play next week. I'm not going to bother with picking Cinderella teams, although there are a few conferences where things are ripe for an at large to lose this week -- the CAA and Southern leap to mind -- so the teams listed as last in should be looking over their shoulders (or not, depending on how they feel about Satchel Paige's advice).

The national seeds, all of whom will host:

#1 Clemson (#3 ISR, #1 RPI)
#2 Rice (#2, #2)
#3 Alabama (#14, #3)
#4 Texas (#5, #5)
#5 Nebraska (#6, #7)
#6 Cal State Fullerton (#1, #8)
#7 North Carolina (#15, #9)
#8 Oklahoma (#7, #10)

Of these, I think Nebraska, UNC, and Oklahoma are vulnerable; Nebraska should be OK, but the recent slide could cause them problems if they go 0-3 this week. If any of these go down, look for one or both of the Georgia teams to move up with a good week.

Now, the other #1 seeds:

Georgia Tech (#16, #4)
Georgia (#10, #6)
Arkansas (#12, #11)
Virginia (#21, #12)
Oklahoma State (#11, #13)
Oregon State (#4, #29)
Pepperdine (#8, #16)
Kentucky (#22, 23)

Virginia is here instead of Miami, FSU, and NCSU because somebody has to lose this week; figure the fourth selection from the ACC will be a #1 seed and plug in appropriately. If Pepperdine slips against USF this week, look for one of the Southern mid-majors who wins their tournament to take the Coastal Carolina Memorial Bid: Winthrop, Elon, College of Charleston, or Troy. Virginia and Kentucky probably won't host; look for Miami and Tulane instead.

The #2 seeds:

Miami, Florida (#32, #14)
Florida State (#29, #15)
North Carolina State (#36, #17)
Winthrop (#38, #18)
Houston (#26, #19)
Wake Forest (#45, #20)
Elon (#31, #21)
Mississippi (#34, #22)
Troy (#33, #24)
UCLA (#17, #25)
College of Charleston (#43, #26)
Tulane (#35, #27)
South Carolina (#44, #28)
Baylor (#30, #30)
Arizona State (#18, #31)
South Alabama (#53, #32)

Unusually enough, there's no one here to fear more than a normal #2 seed; the only real chance of that would be if they stuck Oregon State or Pepperdine down here.

The #3's:

Jacksonville (#52, #39)
Kansas (#39, #42)
Notre Dame (#62, #49)
Birmingham-Southern (#79, #66)
UC Irvine (#9, #37)
Long Beach State (#24, #44)
Southern Mississippi (#47, #36)
CAA champion
Stanford (#19, #40)
Louisiana State (#54, #38)
Vanderbilt (#58, #43)
Hawaii (#13, #34)
Fresno State (#20, #35)
San Francisco (#23, #51)
Louisiana-Lafayette (#60, #48)
San Diego (#25, #54)

Now, here are the teams you don't want to be paired with. Any of Stanford, Irvine, Hawaii, Fresno, or San Diego should strike fear into the hearts of any ACC or SEC #1 seed, which, of course, means that all six of them will be placed into the same regional somehow.

The last three in are Louisiana-Lafayette, Birmingham-Southern, and San Diego, with Mississippi State, Wichita State, and Missouri as the last three out.

After arguing for years that it wasn't fair that the next couple of SEC teams were being left out, we've now swung the pendelum where the SEC is going to get eight or nine bids when it actually deserves six. This will legitimize, at least for this year, a lot of the complaints that actually come in from the West Coast, although teams like ULL, South Alabama, and Jacksonville are still just as much a problem (and, most years, are much more). It also means that the SEC's performance in this year's tournament is quite likely to resemble the ACC's most years, with quite a few teams going home disappointed and early.

And the #4's:

America East champion
Atlantic 10 champion
Big Ten champion
Horizon champion
Princeton (#232, #231)
MAAC champion
MAC champion
MEAC champion
Mid-Continent champion
Mountain West champion
MVC champion
NEC champion
OVC champion
Patriot champion
Prairie View A&M (#231, #228)
Southland champion

Something weird happened that's worth mentioning, and this is as good a place as any. Prompted by a curious Vermont fan, I went looking for the worst non-conference record by a conference champion. In the years that I have records for, from 1896 to 2004, no one ever won a conference with a non-trivial (at least ten games) non-conference record that was worse than .200. Then, last year, Mississippi Valley State won the SWAC while going 1-24 non-conference, and this year Vermont won the America East while going 2-24. Some of this is probably due to incomplete records (I don't have the weaker conferences from long-ago days), but there may be some evidence there of increased stratification within the game as big budgets continue to grow.

Rather than keep returning to the subject of pitch counts and pitcher usage in general too often for my main theme, I'm just going to run a standard feature down here where I point out potential problems; feel free to stop reading above this if the subject doesn't interest you. This will just be a quick listing of questionable starts that have caught my eye -- the general threshold for listing is 120 actual pitches or 130 estimated, although short rest will also get a pitcher listed if I catch it. Don't blame me; I'm just the messenger.

(*) Pitch count is estimated. As always, I welcome actual pitch count corrections.

Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Out of Denial -- What Will Actually Happen

About the author, Boyd Nation