| Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> A Closer Look at Park Factors | About the author, Boyd Nation |
Publication Date: September 4, 2001
Arrrrrghh!
So, here's the problem: Park factors are important. People need to understand them to properly understand the game, or at least need to be familiar with them in the context of the teams they care about, so they'll know how to properly evaluate the pitching and offense of those teams relative to each other. But, you try to find an interesting way to write about them. I mean, it's fairly hardcore numeric, if you know what I mean and I think you do; you can't exactly throw in a Shakespeare reference (or even Tom Lehrer, although that's a lot closer; maybe I could set it to music) and have it really connect.
None the less, here we go: Last year, I took a first look at park factors for college baseball. It wasn't a bad study, but it necessarily dealt with some fairly small sample sizes, and I want to go back and take another look at it now that we've got another year of data, which allows us to take four years of data rather than two.
Some of the results change rather drastically, which hopefully means that the extra data is smoothing out a lot of the more extreme anomalies. The tops and bottoms of the list are now a lot closer to the middle, which is a good sign in this case that our data is getting better. Still, I wouldn't want to use these for hardcore analysis of the type that you can do on major league stats. Actually, some of those are a bit suspect as well this year because of the introduction of the unbalanced schedule, but I digress.
These are probably accurate enough, though, to use as a general trend. If you're constantly down on your team's pitching staff because you're losing games 8-6, but your park factor is 1.25, you probably need to refocus your efforts, since it's probably the case that the pitching is probably actually doing OK (or at least average; average runs per game last year was 6.3 -- multiply that by 1.25 and you get around 8), but your offense is underperforming.
In addition to going from two years' data to four, I had another idea that expanded the sample sizes this year. Besides just using conference games like I did last year, I also included games between teams which had played home-and-home series during the course of the four seasons, which I defined as any pair of teams that played at least two games at each team's home. This added about three opponents per team, which is a reasonably significant gain. This also allows me to add the independent teams.
In a search for trends, I thought I'd look at the park factors for the top twenty teams in ISR for the last three years. There's a mild trend toward pitcher's parks, especially in the top 10; time will tell if it's significant:
Team PF Stanford 0.830 Cal State Fullerton 0.946 Southern California 0.968 Florida State 0.940 Baylor 1.004 Miami, Florida 0.978 Louisiana State 1.115 Rice 0.875 Nebraska 1.072 South Carolina 0.861 Alabama 1.183 Arizona State 1.188 Pepperdine 0.748 Auburn 1.127 Tulane 0.857 Texas 0.954 Mississippi State 0.933 Wake Forest 1.019 Georgia Tech 1.189 Long Beach State 0.751
Here's the whole list, so you can find the teams you actually care about. The Home column is average runs per home game for both teams; Away is average runs per road game for both teams.
Team Rank PF Home Away Air Force 57 1.134 18.39 16.21 Akron 270 0.820 11.64 14.19 Alabama 32 1.183 15.38 13.00 Alabama A&M 40 1.167 14.19 12.16 Alabama State 79 1.101 17.06 15.49 Alabama-Birmingham 76 1.109 14.33 12.92 Albany 5 1.380 16.80 12.18 Alcorn State 83 1.096 14.38 13.11 Appalachian State 42 1.163 17.36 14.93 Arizona 20 1.228 16.87 13.74 Arizona State 29 1.188 16.70 14.07 Arkansas 184 0.951 14.09 14.81 Arkansas State 275 0.779 10.22 13.12 Arkansas-Little Rock 46 1.155 13.51 11.70 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 226 0.901 13.32 14.78 Army 193 0.943 10.85 11.50 Auburn 59 1.127 15.21 13.49 Austin Peay State 151 0.978 12.84 13.12 Ball State 23 1.216 12.70 10.45 Baylor 128 1.004 12.79 12.74 Belmont 282 0.752 9.96 13.25 Bethune-Cookman 106 1.035 13.01 12.58 Boston College 188 0.946 12.68 13.41 Bowling Green State 216 0.920 11.53 12.54 Bradley 94 1.070 14.33 13.39 Brigham Young 58 1.134 18.18 16.03 Brown 13 1.261 13.67 10.84 Bucknell 242 0.876 11.05 12.61 Buffalo 287 0.659 8.44 12.82 Butler 67 1.114 11.08 9.94 C. W. Post 11 1.295 15.18 11.72 Cal Poly 238 0.882 12.35 14.01 Cal State Fullerton 186 0.946 12.86 13.59 Cal State Northridge 125 1.008 13.84 13.72 Cal State Sacramento 163 0.966 13.74 14.23 Cal-Santa Barbara 124 1.010 14.68 14.53 California 228 0.898 12.86 14.32 Campbell 192 0.944 11.31 11.99 Canisius 39 1.174 11.12 9.48 Centenary 154 0.977 14.28 14.62 Central Connecticut State 174 0.960 12.26 12.76 Central Florida 122 1.013 12.65 12.49 Central Michigan 104 1.038 11.90 11.46 Charleston Southern 240 0.878 10.88 12.39 Chicago State 201 0.934 13.09 14.02 Cincinnati 155 0.976 14.81 15.17 Clemson 206 0.927 12.59 13.58 Cleveland State 72 1.111 13.82 12.44 Coastal Carolina 179 0.957 11.63 12.16 College of Charleston 108 1.032 12.83 12.44 Columbia 53 1.138 13.40 11.77 Connecticut 200 0.934 13.60 14.56 Coppin State 48 1.149 19.00 16.54 Cornell 187 0.946 11.51 12.17 Creighton 143 0.989 13.61 13.76 Dartmouth 31 1.184 12.60 10.64 Davidson 211 0.923 13.44 14.56 Dayton 74 1.110 14.89 13.42 Delaware 274 0.788 11.07 14.05 Delaware State 35 1.178 18.20 15.44 Detroit Mercy 63 1.124 12.96 11.53 Drexel 134 0.997 11.66 11.69 Duke 140 0.990 13.86 14.00 Duquesne 234 0.892 13.15 14.74 East Carolina 97 1.053 12.61 11.97 East Tennessee State 86 1.086 15.45 14.22 Eastern Illinois 99 1.049 13.34 12.71 Eastern Kentucky 82 1.098 14.63 13.32 Eastern Michigan 236 0.886 11.19 12.63 Elon 197 0.937 10.86 11.59 Evansville 98 1.052 13.28 12.62 Fairfield 145 0.988 11.53 11.66 Fairleigh Dickinson 33 1.182 13.24 11.21 Florida 150 0.982 14.49 14.75 Florida A&M 165 0.965 14.07 14.58 Florida Atlantic 191 0.944 11.82 12.52 Florida International 261 0.844 10.99 13.01 Florida State 195 0.940 12.01 12.78 Fordham 129 1.004 11.77 11.73 Fresno State 181 0.956 11.89 12.44 Furman 233 0.892 12.62 14.15 George Mason 207 0.926 13.71 14.80 George Washington 264 0.838 12.24 14.60 Georgetown 243 0.876 13.03 14.87 Georgia 158 0.975 13.42 13.77 Georgia Southern 255 0.855 13.62 15.93 Georgia State 9 1.308 15.66 11.98 Georgia Tech 28 1.189 15.73 13.23 Gonzaga 25 1.200 15.39 12.83 Grambling State 68 1.113 14.90 13.38 Grand Canyon 21 1.228 19.45 15.85 Hartford 89 1.081 10.58 9.78 Harvard 256 0.855 10.17 11.90 Hawaii 115 1.022 12.12 11.86 Hawaii-Hilo 131 1.001 11.78 11.77 High Point 66 1.115 13.68 12.27 Hofstra 22 1.227 13.02 10.61 Holy Cross 183 0.954 12.06 12.64 Houston 251 0.863 11.11 12.88 Howard 107 1.032 15.92 15.43 IUPUI 71 1.112 14.94 13.44 Illinois 4 1.382 13.92 10.08 Illinois State 111 1.025 13.22 12.89 Illinois-Chicago 116 1.021 11.52 11.29 Indiana 47 1.154 12.50 10.83 Indiana State 171 0.962 13.30 13.82 Iona 84 1.094 13.01 11.90 Iowa 73 1.110 12.08 10.88 Iowa State 166 0.964 12.84 13.32 Jackson State 268 0.823 12.59 15.29 Jacksonville 146 0.988 12.54 12.69 Jacksonville State 44 1.161 13.72 11.82 James Madison 54 1.137 14.92 13.12 Kansas 70 1.112 13.59 12.22 Kansas State 230 0.896 12.56 14.03 Kent 248 0.869 11.20 12.89 Kentucky 87 1.084 14.48 13.36 LaSalle 16 1.245 17.75 14.26 Lafayette 41 1.166 14.68 12.59 Lamar 269 0.820 10.57 12.88 LeMoyne 278 0.775 8.60 11.10 Lehigh 224 0.903 11.13 12.33 Liberty 24 1.201 14.49 12.07 Long Beach State 283 0.751 11.44 15.23 Long Island 204 0.933 13.41 14.37 Louisiana State 65 1.115 14.61 13.11 Louisiana Tech 6 1.333 15.38 11.53 Louisiana-Lafayette 209 0.925 10.41 11.25 Louisiana-Monroe 136 0.995 11.09 11.15 Louisville 180 0.957 12.78 13.36 Loyola Marymount 7 1.320 16.23 12.30 Maine 189 0.945 10.88 11.52 Manhattan 120 1.014 11.12 10.96 Marist 126 1.008 11.00 10.92 Marshall 26 1.199 14.79 12.33 Maryland 121 1.014 13.90 13.71 Maryland-Baltimore County 61 1.127 14.26 12.65 Maryland-Eastern Shore 37 1.177 18.50 15.72 Massachusetts 62 1.126 12.47 11.07 McNeese State 110 1.026 13.41 13.07 Memphis 103 1.045 12.86 12.31 Mercer 218 0.919 12.17 13.25 Miami, Florida 152 0.978 13.71 14.02 Miami, Ohio 114 1.023 13.10 12.80 Michigan 250 0.863 11.23 13.02 Michigan State 75 1.109 13.62 12.28 Middle Tennessee State 212 0.922 12.46 13.51 Minnesota 77 1.105 12.66 11.45 Mississippi 266 0.828 11.77 14.21 Mississippi State 203 0.933 12.22 13.09 Mississippi Valley State 220 0.918 13.73 14.97 Missouri 168 0.963 13.20 13.71 Monmouth 252 0.862 12.15 14.09 Morehead State 3 1.469 16.03 10.91 Mount St. Mary's 56 1.134 15.65 13.80 Murray State 142 0.989 12.36 12.50 Navy 239 0.879 11.67 13.27 Nebraska 93 1.072 14.49 13.52 Nevada 17 1.244 17.96 14.44 Nevada-Las Vegas 81 1.100 15.91 14.47 New Mexico 2 1.502 21.38 14.23 New Mexico State 12 1.286 22.10 17.18 New Orleans 135 0.995 13.43 13.49 New York Tech 202 0.933 13.41 14.37 Niagara 60 1.127 13.38 11.88 Nicholls State 213 0.920 11.20 12.17 Norfolk State 286 0.676 11.22 16.60 North Carolina 232 0.893 13.43 15.03 North Carolina A&T 50 1.142 13.96 12.23 North Carolina State 113 1.024 13.51 13.19 North Carolina-Asheville 123 1.012 12.97 12.82 North Carolina-Charlotte 177 0.959 13.00 13.56 North Carolina-Greensboro 237 0.885 11.65 13.16 North Carolina-Wilmington 273 0.801 10.30 12.85 Northeast Louisiana 157 0.976 12.88 13.19 Northeastern 267 0.824 10.39 12.61 Northeastern Illinois 112 1.025 10.33 10.08 Northern Illinois 105 1.038 11.88 11.44 Northern Iowa 231 0.895 12.34 13.79 Northwestern 259 0.852 10.47 12.29 Northwestern State 260 0.850 10.64 12.53 Notre Dame 15 1.257 13.88 11.04 Oakland 45 1.156 13.46 11.64 Ohio 95 1.065 14.48 13.60 Ohio State 280 0.765 9.71 12.70 Oklahoma 43 1.163 15.00 12.90 Oklahoma State 119 1.016 13.51 13.29 Old Dominion 96 1.060 14.18 13.38 Oral Roberts 246 0.870 11.59 13.31 Oregon State 221 0.917 14.78 16.11 Pace 64 1.118 16.66 14.89 Pacific 156 0.976 12.28 12.58 Penn State 149 0.982 13.06 13.30 Pennsylvania 162 0.966 12.40 12.83 Pepperdine 284 0.748 10.29 13.75 Pittsburgh 100 1.049 12.26 11.69 Portland 262 0.841 11.23 13.35 Portland State 167 0.963 14.69 15.25 Prairie View A&M 38 1.176 16.48 14.01 Princeton 247 0.870 10.51 12.08 Providence 159 0.974 14.52 14.92 Purdue 258 0.854 10.49 12.28 Quinnipiac 170 0.963 12.39 12.86 Radford 101 1.048 14.36 13.70 Rhode Island 225 0.903 11.65 12.91 Rice 244 0.875 11.22 12.81 Richmond 109 1.026 12.86 12.53 Rider 227 0.900 10.88 12.08 Rutgers 169 0.963 13.10 13.60 Sacred Heart 8 1.319 12.23 9.27 Sam Houston State 137 0.992 11.48 11.57 Samford 91 1.081 14.40 13.32 San Diego 235 0.892 12.00 13.46 San Diego State 276 0.777 11.93 15.35 San Francisco 34 1.180 14.76 12.51 San Jose State 153 0.977 11.32 11.58 Santa Clara 241 0.878 11.67 13.30 Seton Hall 219 0.918 11.98 13.05 Siena 272 0.815 9.97 12.23 South Alabama 78 1.102 12.23 11.10 South Carolina 253 0.861 12.01 13.96 South Florida 80 1.100 15.39 13.99 Southeast Missouri State 144 0.989 12.18 12.32 Southeastern Louisiana 90 1.081 13.12 12.14 Southern 271 0.815 12.86 15.78 Southern California 161 0.968 12.31 12.72 Southern Illinois 138 0.992 12.64 12.75 Southern Mississippi 27 1.194 13.29 11.13 Southern Utah 52 1.139 17.09 15.00 Southwest Missouri State 148 0.984 13.80 14.02 Southwest Texas State 51 1.141 12.73 11.15 Southwestern Louisiana 249 0.863 10.00 11.59 St. Bonaventure 199 0.935 11.31 12.09 St. Francis 285 0.681 8.61 12.64 St. John's 164 0.965 11.13 11.53 St. Joseph's 127 1.005 13.69 13.62 St. Louis 214 0.920 13.69 14.88 St. Mary's 92 1.074 13.14 12.24 St. Peter's 55 1.137 13.02 11.45 Stanford 265 0.830 11.11 13.37 Stetson 198 0.936 13.03 13.92 Stony Brook 279 0.768 12.56 16.35 Temple 30 1.185 13.89 11.73 Tennessee 205 0.931 13.97 15.01 Tennessee Tech 130 1.003 13.47 13.43 Tennessee-Martin 175 0.960 12.29 12.79 Texas 182 0.954 11.76 12.32 Texas A&M 210 0.924 11.37 12.31 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 1 1.611 21.12 13.11 Texas Christian 222 0.916 12.03 13.13 Texas Southern 132 1.000 14.40 14.40 Texas Tech 49 1.146 14.10 12.30 Texas-Arlington 223 0.909 11.75 12.93 Texas-Pan American 288 0.639 9.64 15.10 Texas-San Antonio 133 0.999 12.13 12.14 The Citadel 263 0.839 11.68 13.92 Toledo 160 0.972 11.77 12.10 Towson State 69 1.113 12.61 11.33 Troy State 194 0.942 12.43 13.19 Tulane 254 0.857 13.19 15.39 UCLA 185 0.951 15.09 15.87 Utah 229 0.896 14.89 16.62 Valparaiso 245 0.874 12.08 13.82 Vanderbilt 85 1.092 14.71 13.47 Vermont 172 0.962 11.31 11.76 Villanova 176 0.960 12.57 13.09 Virginia 139 0.991 13.45 13.57 Virginia Commonwealth 147 0.986 11.82 11.98 Virginia Military 10 1.305 17.64 13.51 Virginia Tech 88 1.084 13.07 12.06 Wagner 118 1.018 14.08 13.84 Wake Forest 117 1.019 14.40 14.13 Washington 208 0.926 13.83 14.93 Washington State 14 1.259 17.82 14.16 West Virginia 36 1.177 11.57 9.83 Western Carolina 18 1.240 16.25 13.10 Western Illinois 19 1.238 14.74 11.91 Western Kentucky 178 0.957 12.07 12.61 Western Michigan 196 0.939 10.67 11.36 Wichita State 215 0.920 13.16 14.31 William and Mary 217 0.919 12.00 13.05 Winthrop 277 0.776 10.06 12.96 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 173 0.961 12.30 12.80 Wofford 102 1.045 13.49 12.90 Wright State 281 0.757 11.62 15.36 Xavier 190 0.945 11.65 12.33 Yale 141 0.989 11.92 12.05 Youngstown State 257 0.855 12.32 14.42
| Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> A Closer Look at Park Factors | About the author, Boyd Nation |