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Record Watch -- The Offense
Publication Date: October 5, 2004
Well, That Wasn't Pleasant
Boy, you try to do things sometimes, and it just doesn't turn out to be worth it. I figured I'd put together a list of career leaders among the various statistical categories and compare it to the NCAA record book to see if there were any likely candidates to go down next year. It turns out, though, that the system doesn't really work that way too well. The reason is that, while it's easy enough, given the Hitting Stats Database, to generate a list of the leaders for the last three years, identifying who from that leader's list is returning is a royal pain because of the tendency for the best players to leave after three years. At any rate, I put in the sweat and tears to create this, so, by golly, y'all can eat it and smile. Sorry, wrong rant. Anyway, here's the table; I apologize in advance if I missed someone or if any of these guys aren't actually coming back:
Stat # Leader Team Record
GP 189 Michael Griffin Baylor 295
AB 782 Michael Griffin Baylor 1114
R 157 Jeff Larish Arizona State 420
H 243 Michael Griffin Baylor 418
2B 51 Brad Willcutt Southern Miss 95
51 Brad Locke Boston College
3B 19 Jaime Landin Texas A&M-CC 32
HR 41 Darryl Lawhorn East Carolina 100
RBI 168 Jeff Larish Arizona State 346
TB 405 Darryl Lawhorn East Carolina 730
BB 142 Jeff Larish Arizona State 300
HBP 56 Daniel Bruce Nebraska 92
SB 105 Dennis Diaz Florida Int. 206
In a word, no, none of these are likely to go down this year. On the other hand, that's not for the reason that I would have thought. I tend to think of the career records that are out of reach as having been set in a time (the early '80's, mostly) when a few teams played far more games than teams do now. That's not so much the case, though, at least at the top end. Phil Stephenson's records for runs, hits, total bases, walks, and stolen bases were all set in 288 games. South Carolina has played 281 games in the last four years. All it really takes is a lot of talent willing to stay for four years to have a shot at a record; after all, the doubles record was set by Khalil Greene from 1999 to 2002. Rickie Weeks would have broken the triples record easily, I think, had he stayed for a fourth year.
One thing that does hurt the chances, though, is the current lowered offensive context. Pete Incaviglia's record of 100 home runs, for example, is going to be hard to reach in an age where the national leader frequently comes in under 25 every year. It'll probably take a very good player playing somewhere like New Mexico to take that one out.
As far as the rate stats go, those are harder to project, and it's hard to declare a two-year-old record unbreakable, but no one around currently has a shot at Rickie Weeks' records for batting average (.465) or slugging average (.927).
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