Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Our Basic Currency -- Runs per Game

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There's something interesting going on so far this season. Despite the fact that there were no major changes in either the rules or the equipment this year, scoring is down a bit around the nation. Here are the averages for runs per game for the last three seasons for all games between Division I teams:

2001  12.66
2002  12.72
2003  12.05

Now, that doesn't look like a lot (mostly because of the artifact of the numbers all starting with 12), but that's a 5.6% decrease, which is quite significant. If the current number stands up, the 6.03 runs per team per game for this year will be the lowest since 1977.

What makes this potentially even more interesting is that the usual trend is for scoring to decrease over the course of the season. I won't throw in yet another chart, but for four of the last five years, if you throw out the handful of January games, scoring has decreased each month throughout the season. The one exception, 2001, featured a small blip upwards in March, but follows the general trend. This means that the likely trend is for scoring to continue to decrease before the end of the season.

Nothing is universal, though, so I'd like to finish up with a look at the trends for each conference. These are much more susceptible to recruiting fluctuations, but the trends in a couple of the usual outliers, like the America East, are interesting. The Patriot League, on the other hand, continues toward almost 60's-ish lows.

ACC             13.81 13.87 12.11
America East     9.73  9.43 11.13
Atlantic 10     12.52 11.64 10.94
Atlantic Sun    10.57 10.32  9.95
Big 12          11.14 12.35 13.57
Big East        10.55 11.20 11.01
Big South       12.19 12.43 11.89
Big Ten         11.28 10.43 10.45
Big West        11.25 12.59 10.58
C-USA           11.94 11.88 10.35
CAA             11.63 11.28 11.63
Horizon         11.21  9.21  9.14
Ivy             11.64 10.92 11.46
MAAC            11.01 12.34 10.26
MAC             16.19 14.50 12.42
MEAC            13.63 14.56 11.60
MVC             13.22 12.03 10.49
Mid-Continent   15.21 11.18 13.83
Mountain West   14.29 16.11 15.11
NEC             10.66 11.29  9.04
OVC             12.59 13.87 12.34
Pac 10          12.02 13.82 13.80
Patriot         11.29  9.48  7.53
SEC             12.47 12.54 10.34
SWAC            14.28 13.06 13.75
Southern        12.86 12.44 11.94
Southland       11.17 12.03 11.65
Sun Belt        12.44 12.76 12.08
WAC             12.02 11.29  9.90
WCC             11.74 13.44 11.72

Rather than keep returning to the subject of pitch counts and pitcher usage in general too often for my main theme, I'm just going to run a standard feature down here where I point out potential problems; feel free to stop reading above this if the subject doesn't interest you. This will just be a quick listing of questionable starts that have caught my eye -- the general threshold for listing is 120 actual pitches or 130 estimated, although short rest will also get a pitcher listed if I catch it. Don't blame me; I'm just the messenger.

(*) Pitch count is estimated.

The Verlander and Sleeth starts from April 12 are corrections based on actual pitch counts. Marchbanks finished a suspended game and then started the second game.

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Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Our Basic Currency -- Runs per Game

About the author, Boyd Nation