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C'Mon, Blue

So, you know everything about the two teams (or the other team, if you're one of them). You know all about the park and how it plays. You've got up-to-date weather information and crowd size projections. You're all set and know exactly what kind of game it will be, right? Well, it turns out that there's one more factor to check on.

This week's topic is a good reminder for me of why I publish my email address. I got a note last week from a player's parent, who will remain nameless in case the umpires turn out to be unhappy about this stuff but who is thanked, asking whether there was a way to measure umpires. I love the idea; the umpires' names are in most box scores, but no one's taken a comprehensive look at them at the college level, as far as I can tell.

The full report contains three measures that I've come up with. I don't know that they give a specific measure of quality, but they do provide some useful information on what kind of umpire each caller is. The three measures are Relative Run Rate (RRR), Relative Strikeout Rate (RKR), and Relative Walk Rate (RWR). RRR is the number of runs allowed by pitchers called by a home plate umpire (only home plate umpires are included in this study, since the base umps don't really have much that can be measured) divided by the average number of runs that those pitchers allowed during the season. RKR and RWR are equivalent measures for strikeouts and walks. The data included is for the 2005 and 2006 seasons and includes all umpires who showed up in at least ten box scores during that time.

The reason for using the rate for the specific pitchers instead of the teams, even though there's more information in the team rate, is that both pitchers and umpires tend to show up on the same day of the week, so there are some confusing factors involved in trying to use the team numbers. Similarly, the numbers are not park-adjusted, because you end up double-adjusting and adding more mud than light to the discussion.

As an example, let's look at the second guy on the alphabetized list:

Umpire                Conference            G    RRR    RKR    RWR

Adya, Chuck           Horizon               10   1.17   0.83   0.81

In the 10 games Adya called over the last two years, the pitchers gave up 17% more runs per inning than they did overall. They got 17% fewer strikeouts, but, oddly gave up 19% fewer walks. Most umpires don't have that strikeout/walk contrast, but it's possible.

The whole list is worthy of review as a scouting tool, I think. For more information, here are the leaders at both ends for each category.

   Umpire               Conference           G   RRR

 1 Walker, Dennis       Big 12               14  1.85
 2 Woodall, Bryant      ACC                  13  1.83
 3 Assmann, Kevin       Sun Belt             26  1.72
 4 Harlow, Ben          Mid-Continent        12  1.68
 5 McCall, Ron          Mountain West        10  1.68
 6 Jones, Randy         Big 12               10  1.60
 7 Schepis, Josh        MVC                  25  1.58
 8 Parnell, Mike        Big South            18  1.54
 9 Aldridge, Mike       Southland            15  1.53
10 Friebe, Shane        MVC                  15  1.52

   Umpire               Conference           G   RRR

 1 Simmons, Bob         Independents         14  0.52
 2 Parker, Bob          Big East             13  0.57
 3 Riley, John          NEC                  26  0.60
 4 Rozzelle, Hal        C-USA                12  0.65
 5 Ligons, Reggie       SWAC                 10  0.66
 6 Ramsey, John         NEC                  10  0.67
 7 Condin, Dave         MVC                  25  0.67
 8 Brahan, Tom          C-USA                18  0.68
 9 Meekas, Bill         Patriot              15  0.69
10 Leach, Chris         Mid-Continent        15  0.69

   Umpire               Conference           G   RKR

 1 Marshall, Chris      MAAC                 11  1.29
 2 Trevino, Richard     Independents         12  1.27
 3 Rozzelle, Hal        C-USA                11  1.25
 4 Doss, Ben            Independents         15  1.22
 5 Durrett, Tommy       Southland            10  1.21
 6 Amoruso, Peter       NEC                  20  1.21
 7 Walker, Shay         OVC                  11  1.20
 8 Scarbery, Rick       WAC                  25  1.20
 9 Gonzales, Phil       Mountain West        25  1.19
10 Aldridge, Mike       Southland            15  1.18

   Umpire               Conference           G   RKR

 1 Minard, Ralph        Southland            11  0.59
 2 Bowerman, Jeff       MVC                  12  0.63
 3 Stahlbusch, Erik     MAC                  11  0.64
 4 Perez, Dave          Pac 10               15  0.66
 5 Dilbeck, Tony        CAA                  10  0.66
 6 Harlow, Ben          Mid-Continent        20  0.69
 7 Kovacich, Tom        Horizon              11  0.70
 8 Uyl, Mark            MAC                  25  0.70
 9 Smith, Joseph        SWAC                 25  0.72
10 Snyder, Kendall      Pac 10               15  0.72

   Umpire               Conference           G   RWR

 1 Walker, Dennis       Big 12               14  1.89
 2 Uyl, Mark            MAC                  17  1.61
 3 Stuck, Jim           CAA                  11  1.57
 4 Lee, Doug            Atlantic Sun         11  1.52
 5 Gonzales, Kelly      Mountain West        29  1.52
 6 McCray, Mike         Big South            20  1.50
 7 Gonzales, Phil       Mountain West        25  1.49
 8 Nelson, Ed           Southland            22  1.49
 9 Johnson, Matt        Big 12               15  1.49
10 Brasher, Brian       MVC                  13  1.48

   Umpire               Conference           G   RWR

 1 Doss, Ben            Independents         14  0.53
 2 Evans, Mark          WAC                  17  0.56
 3 Ramsey, John         NEC                  11  0.56
 4 Carson, Fulton       SWAC                 11  0.60
 5 Lenaeu, Jim          Big West             29  0.64
 6 Gottsegen, Cory      Atlantic Sun         20  0.65
 7 Simmons, Bob         Independents         25  0.65
 8 Cayson, Jackie       OVC                  22  0.66
 9 Rozzelle, Hal        C-USA                15  0.66
10 Walker, Kevin        WCC                  13  0.68

Now, my instinct is that these are useful numbers, but I'm curious about how they compare to people's anecdotal impressions, so let me hear from you on this one.

As far as general conclusions go, these numbers strike me as a fairly wide spread. Adya's numbers above aren't really that unusual; that's part of why I picked him -- he's about one standard deviation off from the mean on each category. But 17% is a fairly large impact; that's essentially the equivalent of saying that each time is going to score an extra run in his average game. Studying these umpiring tendencies, both for the coaches and the conference offices, looks to be worthwhile.

Another finding, which doesn't show up in the study because it only includes umpires who were behind the plate at least ten times in 2005 and 2006, is that there were a huge number of umpires who called exactly one game during those two years. It stands to reason that that's probably no an ideal state of affairs, and that is almost has to be bad for the game.

This has nothing to do with college baseball, but you're a reasonable pool of people to invite. I've set up a low-key fantasy baseball league on Yahoo! called Fathers and Sons which, despite the sexist title, is intended for fathers or mothers to compete with their sons or daughters. If that's something that fits into where your family is right now, please join up. It's Yahoo! League ID 124472. The rest of you, thanks for your patience.

Rather than keep returning to the subject of pitch counts and pitcher usage in general too often for my main theme, I'm just going to run a standard feature down here where I point out potential problems; feel free to stop reading above this if the subject doesn't interest you. This will just be a quick listing of questionable starts that have caught my eye -- the general threshold for listing is 120 actual pitches or 130 estimated, although short rest will also get a pitcher listed if I catch it. Don't blame me; I'm just the messenger.

(*) Pitch count is estimated. As always, I welcome actual pitch count corrections.

Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> C'Mon, Blue

About the author, Boyd Nation