Boyd's World-> Filing Cabinet-> Expected Runs Tables for NCAA Division I About the author, Boyd Nation

Expected Runs Tables for NCAA Division I

The tables below were created from analysis of play-by-play data for roughly 93% of all D1 games from 2005 to 2008.

The first table represents the average runs scored after the given situation occurred.

Outs   0   1   2
Empty   0.63   0.32   0.11
1st   1.10   0.65   0.28
2nd   1.39   0.84   0.39
1st and 2nd   1.83   1.16   0.57
3rd   1.62   1.08   0.44
1st and 3rd   2.07   1.40   0.65
2nd and 3rd   2.32   1.59   0.73
Loaded   2.70   1.88   0.98

The second table presents the percentage of the time that a team will score at least one run from a given situation:

Outs   0   1   2
Empty   32%   18%   07%
1st   52%   34%   17%
2nd   69%   48%   27%
1st and 2nd   72%   51%   30%
3rd   85%   70%   31%
1st and 3rd   89%   71%   36%
2nd and 3rd   90%   75%   35%
Loaded   90%   74%   42%
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Boyd's World-> Filing Cabinet-> Expected Runs Tables for NCAA Division I About the author, Boyd Nation