Expected Runs Tables for NCAA Division I

Boyd's World-> Filing Cabinet-> Expected Runs Tables for NCAA Division I About the author, Boyd Nation

This version represents analysis of over 8000 games from the 2023 season. The older version is still available here for comparison. These columns represent the average number of runs scored (ER, for expected runs) and percentage of times that the team scored at least one run (R%) for each bases/outs situation available, averaged over all games analyzed.

0 1 2

ER R% ER R% ER R%

Empty 0.73 34.6% 0.39 21.0% 0.15 8.9%

1st 1.25 52.4% 0.70 33.3% 0.27 14.8%

2nd 1.53 69.5% 0.88 46.8% 0.38 23.7%

3rd 1.75 85.1% 1.14 67.3% 0.42 27.5%

1st and 2nd 1.87 70.3% 1.10 47.4% 0.48 23.9%

1st and 3rd 2.13 85.9% 1.28 61.0% 0.52 27.3%

2nd and 3rd 2.33 85.9% 1.48 68.0% 0.60 29.4%

Loaded 2.54 84.6% 1.61 63.7% 0.73 32.0%

Boyd's World-> Filing Cabinet-> Expected Runs Tables for NCAA Division I About the author, Boyd Nation

	0		1		2
	ER	R%	ER	R%	ER	R%
Empty	0.73	34.6%	0.39	21.0%	0.15	8.9%
1st	1.25	52.4%	0.70	33.3%	0.27	14.8%
2nd	1.53	69.5%	0.88	46.8%	0.38	23.7%
3rd	1.75	85.1%	1.14	67.3%	0.42	27.5%
1st and 2nd	1.87	70.3%	1.10	47.4%	0.48	23.9%
1st and 3rd	2.13	85.9%	1.28	61.0%	0.52	27.3%
2nd and 3rd	2.33	85.9%	1.48	68.0%	0.60	29.4%
Loaded	2.54	84.6%	1.61	63.7%	0.73	32.0%