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Publication Date: July 16, 2002
The Beginnings of Science
This week, I start the measurements on a science experiment. Unfortunately, the course of the experiment may involve a good bit of pain for some very nice young men, and if I could stop it, I certainly would. I can't, though, so we start by measuring to see if we can make the game better five years from now. It's possible -- most major league organizations are taking much better care of young arms than they were even ten years ago -- but there's a very strong element within the game who believes that college pitchers are somehow immune to damage from overuse, and a good number of coaches belong to that group.
The first step toward proving that excessive use causes higher injury rates is to find out who's being used excessively, and, to that end, I've spent quite a bit of time gathering data. There were over 8,000 games played this year involving Division I teams. Some number of those involved only one Division I team, so all told there were around 15,500 starts by Division I pitchers. I have pitching lines for over 14,200 of those, around 92% of them. This isn't comprehensive, and if I squeezed for another week or so, I could probably get another 200 or so, but it does represent a significant amount of the statistical record for this year. Between actual pitch counts and my pitch count estimator, I can come up with reasonable approximations of the PAP count for virtually every college pitcher who saw significant amounts of action this year. The nature of team's self-reporting on the Web means that the majority of the games that I'm missing were between teams in lower-end conferences, where there are fewer prospects.
My goal is to start gathering this data yearly and then check back on players after the course of their minor league career has had time to develop to see what the correlations between workload and success are. In the meantime, for those of us who believe that current workloads are far too high (I don't pretend to be impartial on this issue, but have a pretty good track record for doing legitimate experiments statistically anyway), the current record is chilling.
I realize that I'm presenting a distinctly physical subject in a highly numeric format; if I'm actually going to study this issue with anything more complex than the historical seat-of-the-pants approach that has failed so badly, that's necessary.
Before I begin with the numbers, some links for background reading:
Ouch!
For starters, here are the worst single-game starts from NCAA pitchers last year, with the actual pitch count entries listed first and the estimated counts listed after:
Team Pitcher IP H R ER BB SO AB BF NP Stony Brook Jon Lewis 11.0 9 5 2 3 10 41 47 174 Air Force Matt Kaercher 9.0 11 7 7 5 7 37 42 173 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Jimmy Hamon 8.1 12 6 4 6 7 34 41 165 Air Force Erik Fisher 9.0 9 4 4 3 10 35 38 162 Miami, Ohio Russ Bayer 9.0 8 7 6 4 6 37 42 159 Louisiana State Bo Pettit 9.0 5 1 1 5 9 32 37 156 Pittsburgh P.J. Hiser 9.0 8 1 1 4 10 32 37 155 Eastern Michigan Ryan Ford 9.0 17 6 5 1 6 44 46 155 St. Bonaventure Kyle Johnson 8.0 8 3 3 5 6 30 36 155 Michigan Bobby Korecky 8.2 17 10 6 2 6 44 47 153 Bradley Brock Till 8.0 13 9 8 4 6 33 44 152 New Orleans Brandon Kling 11.0 8 1 0 1 9 39 40 151 Penn State Mike Watson 9.0 4 2 2 7 11 31 38 150 Nebraska Aaron Marsden 8.0 9 2 2 5 6 30 38 150
Team Pitcher IP H R ER BB SO AB BF NP Yale Nick Grass 8.0 16 19 19 10 5 41 54 178 Holy Cross D.J. Lucey 8.0 19 19 13 6 4 46 55 175 Howard Erik Causey 11.0 20 13 12 7 7 49 59 172 Old Dominion Ryan Williams 8.2 8 3 1 2 7 40 43 171 Mount St. Mary's Lynn Fuller 9.0 9 5 4 4 10 39 43 166 Boston College Matt Lederhos 9.0 17 10 7 4 10 43 49 164 LaSalle Harris 9.0 16 11 10 5 8 41 49 162 Temple Justin Mendek 9.0 12 6 6 4 7 39 45 162 Massachusetts Brian Hourigan 9.0 12 4 4 2 10 40 42 162 Eastern Michigan Anthony Tomey 7.0 8 8 8 6 13 31 38 162 Fresno State Ben Fritz 9.0 3 0 0 4 15 32 38 161 Bethune-Cookman Helpiz Moises 9.0 10 4 4 4 7 38 43 161 St. Mary's Mike Byer 8.1 10 4 3 2 5 36 44 161 Liberty Dan Valentin 6.2 6 6 6 8 14 28 36 161 Manhattan Michael Parisi 12.0 11 5 3 3 14 45 50 161 Brown Jamie Grillo 9.0 17 14 11 4 4 44 50 160 Duquesne Bob Reifschneider 10.2 2 3 3 5 11 35 44 160
Obviously, take the estimates with a grain of salt -- once you get out into that territory any formula has some trouble with it. On the other hand, I feel fairly comfortable saying that when you pass the 50th batter, you've probably been in too long. Most people also get pulled somewhere around the 15th run given up. Even ignoring the estimates, the other list shows that there were at least 14 times this year a team admitted to having a pitcher go at least 150 pitches.
Seasons of Distinction
Next, we move to the worst season totals, which, if nothing else, prove that staying away from a big-time sports factory is not a guarantee of delicate treatment:
Team Pitcher GC GE PAP V IV Harvard Ben Crockett 10 10 686548 5 3 Air Force Matt Kaercher 19 15 634472 2 2 Cal State Northridge Bill Murphy 15 15 589120 7 2 Louisiana State Bo Pettit 19 0 580222 6 1 UC Riverside Chris Smith 17 17 565938 6 4 Western Kentucky Ryan Bicondoa 16 16 560649 4 2 Louisiana-Lafayette Justin Gabriel 15 13 538362 5 3 Middle Tennessee State John Williams 9 8 537445 3 2 Howard Erik Causey 11 9 512629 2 1 Old Dominion Justin Verlander 15 15 510616 5 3 Tennessee Jeffery Terrell 14 14 477630 4 2 Yale Nick Grass 4 4 474552 1 0 Fresno State Ben Fritz 15 12 473782 3 2 Liberty Dan Valentin 9 9 448941 3 0 Sam Houston State Jeff Vanlandingham 13 13 446681 4 1 Stony Brook Jon Lewis 14 10 445140 1 1 Eastern Michigan Anthony Tomey 12 12 440010 3 1 Southwest Texas State Bobby Sawicki 15 15 434596 3 3 Central Michigan Dan Horvath 11 11 433133 3 2 Brown Jamie Grillo 7 7 430740 2 1 Michigan Bobby Korecky 11 11 421488 3 1 Manhattan Ryan Darcy 13 13 406054 3 1 Eastern Michigan Ryan Ford 12 12 398016 3 1 New Orleans Brandon Kling 11 4 386919 5 0 Boston College Mark Sullivan 14 14 373288 2 1 Old Dominion Ryan Williams 12 12 366049 1 0 Miami, Ohio Russ Bayer 12 5 355969 2 4 Cal State Sacramento Jeff Groeger 14 14 355471 4 3 Washington State Eddie Bonine 15 15 352305 3 3 James Madison Chris Cochran 10 10 334069 2 1 Davidson Mark Wells 13 13 333206 3 0 North Carolina State Daniel Caldwell 13 12 333123 3 3 South Alabama Sam Smith 14 6 321438 4 4 North Carolina State Phillip Davidson 10 10 319194 3 1 Northern Illinois Knick Davis 12 12 317339 2 3 Kentucky Joseph Blanton 13 13 308100 3 2 Fresno State Bob Runyon 19 11 306738 3 5 Yale Craig Breslow 7 7 306317 2 1 California Trevor Hutchinson 16 16 305794 3 3 Tennessee Ben Riley 15 15 304447 3 2 Northwestern State Oj King 14 14 303920 2 4 Penn State Mike Watson 12 12 294595 2 1 Stanford Jeremy Guthrie 20 20 292644 2 6 Virginia Commonwealth Sean Marshall 15 15 290941 2 0 Air Force Erik Fisher 14 10 289438 1 2 Manhattan Michael Parisi 8 8 288918 1 3 Coppin State Donyell Williams 8 8 288606 2 0 Mount St. Mary's Lynn Fuller 6 6 287928 1 0 Middle Tennessee State Adam Larson 11 10 287207 3 1 San Diego Ricky Barrett 13 13 278052 2 1 Nicholls State Ben Thompson 12 12 277830 2 2 Fairfield Dan Krines 12 12 275680 2 4 Bethune-Cookman Helpiz Moises 15 15 275266 1 2 Elon Whit Bryant 16 16 274952 2 1 San Francisco Peter Dunkle 8 8 272159 2 0 St. Mary's Mike Byer 14 14 266936 1 1 Boston College Matt Lederhos 4 4 262144 1 0 Cleveland State Jerry Long 16 9 257252 2 3 C. W. Post Michael Vicaro 9 9 255043 2 3 Harvard Justin Nyweide 9 9 251153 2 1 Louisiana Tech Lee Gwaltney 14 14 250610 2 3 East Tennessee State Reid Casey 8 6 249211 3 0 Southeastern Louisiana Steve Trosclair 14 7 248756 3 0 Coppin State Brad Hundertmark 8 8 242264 2 0 Massachusetts Brian Hourigan 3 2 238328 1 0 LaSalle Harris 1 1 238328 1 0 Pace Keith Makowski 8 8 235649 2 0 Washington Kohn 8 8 235559 2 1 Western Michigan Pat Misch 11 11 233218 2 2 William and Mary Whitt Farr 17 11 229343 2 3 Manhattan Wendell Anderson 13 13 228663 2 2 Illinois Andy Dickinson 17 17 222753 3 2 St. Peter's Doug Grant 11 11 222448 2 3 Temple Brandon Bruno 8 8 220115 2 0 North Carolina State Derek Mckee 9 9 218654 2 1 Buffalo Brendan Dunford 8 8 217830 2 0 Davidson Tim Frend 10 10 216144 2 0 Louisville Josh Ring 5 5 214760 2 0 Canisius Tyler Hosick 7 7 211087 2 2 Nevada Darrell Rasner 17 8 207552 2 2 Wagner Rob Kostic 13 13 206560 1 1 Cal State Sacramento Chris Kinsey 10 10 206438 1 1 Texas Tech Chris Phillips 11 11 206251 2 0 Cal-Santa Barbara Sean Thompson 9 9 205795 3 0 South Florida John Gorham 15 12 205189 2 1 Connecticut Nick Tucci 8 8 204956 2 0 Nebraska Aaron Marsden 13 4 204387 2 2 Pacific Matthew Pena 7 7 202210 2 0 Buffalo Mark Mcmahon 6 6 199551 1 0 Hofstra Ryan Cosentino 8 7 198047 2 0 North Carolina A&T Joe Locklear 13 13 197515 1 3 New Mexico James Vermilyea 11 7 197036 2 2 Bradley Brock Till 10 7 190493 1 2 Albany Adam Kroft 12 12 189636 1 1 Marshall Sean Smith 4 4 189289 1 0 Long Island Shaun Keebler 9 9 185807 1 1 Texas Southern Thornhill 1 1 185193 1 0 Portland Steve Chamberlain 9 8 183667 2 0 Central Connecticut St. Justin Cerbone 7 7 182160 1 1 Baylor Steven White 16 1 181747 2 2 Legend: GC -- games counted (starts I have records for) GE -- games estimated PAP -- PAP score V -- category V starts (133+ pitches) IV -- category IV starts (121-132 pitches)
That's right, there were at least 100 pitchers in NCAA baseball last year with workloads of over 180,000 PAP. I didn't include ordinal rankings here because I didn't want anyone to think that there was some legitimacy to be taken from a pitcher being "only" the 81st most abused on this list. I'll point you to a more complete listing later on.
As an aside, I'll provide a quick pointer as a cautionary tale for coaches: Ben Thurmond is transferring amidst a lot of finger-pointing.
Team Listings
Here are the twenty highest staff PAP's I could find:
Team GC GE PAP V IV Eastern Michigan 58 58 1096039 10 2 North Carolina State 56 52 1076995 10 7 Air Force 56 43 1056437 4 5 Yale 37 37 1046037 5 3 Harvard 46 46 977901 7 5 Manhattan 51 51 932294 6 6 Old Dominion 53 53 897275 6 3 Tennessee 55 55 869865 8 4 Boston College 53 53 856552 5 3 Middle Tennessee State 47 40 828135 6 3 Louisiana State 65 0 819324 8 8 Fresno State 58 38 815918 6 9 UC Riverside 56 56 781202 7 10 Cal State Sacramento 56 56 712867 7 5 Coppin State 41 41 696070 5 3 Cal State Northridge 62 62 669396 8 3 Louisiana-Lafayette 52 47 663309 6 4 Brown 43 43 643567 3 5 Western Kentucky 58 58 638274 5 2 Northwestern State 60 60 635748 4 11
Some of these totals are amazing (that Yale could do that in only 37 games is astounding), but the interesting thing to this is that there are only a few teams in this list from major conferences. In the interests of fairness to the coaching profession as a whole, here are a few PAP counts that I found admirable. It's not really a lowest list, since that would be too affected by the number of games I could find; it's just a few that I found impressive.
Team GC GE PAP V IV Auburn 60 0 6541 0 0 Binghamton 46 46 9119 0 0 East Carolina 58 44 12086 0 0 Georgetown 47 47 5915 0 0 Jacksonville 57 55 8024 0 0 Maryland 53 44 953 0 0 Princeton 44 44 5878 0 0 Southern California 54 54 7589 0 0 Villanova 53 10 8979 0 0
Comprehensive Lists
Finally, thorough lists for pitchers and teams:
The pitcher list has every pitcher that accumulated either 8 starts or 100,000 PAP; the team list has every team. Each list, of course, is subject to the limitations of the data that I have. On the comprehensive lists, I'm going to do something that's different from what I normally do, because I want it to be as accurate a record as possible when I come back to it in a few years -- I will update the records if I get data on additional starts.
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