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Comprehensive Pitch Count Report 2005

Publication Date: August 9, 2005

Year Four

I said when I started this project that I would need five years of data to do anything useful. I think that's probably still true, but I'm curious enough that I'll start looking for interesting results some over this offseason -- after all, some of the pitchers from the 2002 report have been in the minors for four years by now.

For those of you who got here since this time last year, go read at least part of this. This report is an annual part of a long-term research project where I'm tracking pitcher usage numbers for, essentially, every Division I starter along with minor league statistics over a five-year period in order to check for correlations between high workload and future injury or ineffectiveness rates. There are, unavoidably, a ton of numbers here, but they matter, so let's slog on through. This year, through once again improved data gathering and verification methods, I was able to gather lines for almost 16,000 starts, which is around the 98.5% range.

The Hall of Shame

For starters, here are the worst single-game starts from NCAA pitchers last year, with the actual pitch count entries listed first and the estimated counts listed after:

Team                      Pitcher                    IP   H  R ER BB SO NP

Troy                      Landon Brazell            10.0 11  6  4  2 13 168
Washington                Tim Lincecum               9.0  7  4  4  7 13 165
Air Force                 Paul Pratt                 6.2  7  6  6  7  5 156
Norfolk State             Josh Eason                 7.0 13  8  7  4  9 153
Troy                      Landon Brazell             8.1  6  2  2  5  4 152
South Alabama             P.j. Walters               9.0 12  5  4  0  8 152
Murray State              Billy Fares                8.2  9  4  2  1  7 151
Southeastern Louisiana    Rodney Story               9.0 12  6  6  1  7 151
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi  Trey Hearne               10.0  4  1  1  3 12 150
Team                      Pitcher                    IP   H  R ER BB SO NP

North Carolina A&T        Eric Neal                  9.0  8  6  4 11  8 182
North Carolina A&T        Michael Hauff              9.0 14  6  6  5 15 178
Coppin State              Matt Bellon                8.0 13 15 14  9  6 176
Alabama State             Stanton.william            8.0  9 13 10 10  6 167
St. John's                Anthony Varvaro            9.0  7  6  3  8 11 163
Sacred Heart              Mike Milazzo               8.0 12 10  7  9  2 162
Brown                     Jeff Dietz                 9.0 10  8  1  4  8 161
Florida A&M               Michael Tavernier          9.0  8  8  1  5  8 158
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi  Trey Hearne                9.0 15  6  4  2  9 155
Savannah State            Jeremiah Fielder           9.0  7  8  6  6  6 154
McNeese State             Jacob Marceaux             9.0  9  3  3  6  9 154
Chicago State             John Torres                9.0 12 10  7  5  4 153
Massachusetts             Matt Torra                10.2  3  4  1  2 16 152
Stanford                  Greg Reynolds             11.0 10  4  4  1 10 152
Grambling State           Demetrius Marshall         9.0 10  8  8  5  7 151
Buffalo                   Tony Kurtz                 9.0  7  3  2  7  9 151
North Carolina A&T        Michael Hauff              9.0 11  4  3  3 12 150
Georgetown                Thomas Braun               9.0  5  5  5  7 10 150
Quinnipiac                P Egan                     9.0  7  6  4  5  8 150

As always, take the estimates with a grain of salt, both up or down. The good news is that we're now down to only 9 confirmed 150+-pitch outings, down from 15 last year and 19 the year before; it's possible that small amounts of progress are being made. On the flip side, although I don't believe that a pitcher's prospect status should be a factor in overuse, I also know that I would like to have seen what Lance Mestepey's career should have actually looked like, and Tim Lincecum may be that good, so that one's worrisome. Similarly with the Torra start; it's only an estimate, but 10.2 innings with 16 strikeouts is enough for two starts.

Season Totals

Here are the 100 worst season totals. I'll include a link to the the full list at the bottom.

Team                      Pitcher                   G  GE  PAP    V IV

North Carolina A&T        Michael Hauff             15 13 752239  4  5
Troy                      Landon Brazell            17  4 675017  3 11
North Carolina A&T        Eric Neal                 24 16 551368  1  1
Coppin State              Matt Bellon               14 13 438976  1  1
Washington                Tim Lincecum              16 13 430068  3  6
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi  Trey Hearne               17 13 416435  3  6
Florida A&M               Michael Tavernier         16 14 358747  3  4
Alabama State             Stanton.william           12 12 325152  1  2
Southeastern Louisiana    Bernard Robert            17  7 319849  3  7
Gardner-Webb              Zach Ward                 20 12 298035  2  7

Massachusetts             Matt Torra                13  9 288134  2  3
McNeese State             Jacob Marceaux            15  9 286028  2  7
Florida                   Alan Horne                19  0 266906  2  6
St. John's                Anthony Varvaro           14 14 263844  1  2
South Alabama             P.j. Walters              20 13 259572  2  4
Grambling State           Demetrius Marshall        13 12 259471  3  3
Sacred Heart              Mike Milazzo              16  8 247589  1  2
Austin Peay State         Rowdy Hardy               20  7 242606  3  5
North Carolina-Greensboro Chris Mason               18  6 238929  3  9
Brown                     Jeff Dietz                15 14 230357  1  1

New Mexico                Danny Ray Herrera         15  4 220815  2  5
Southeastern Louisiana    Rodney Story              16  8 217351  2  4
Cal Poly                  Garrett Olson             19  8 206018  2  7
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi  Josh Mitchell             16 13 195627  2  5
Penn State                Alan Stidfole             27 18 187745  1  6
Norfolk State             De'mece Williams          14 11 187581  2  5
Utah Valley State         Jed Jensen                18 10 185968  1  5
Air Force                 Paul Pratt                16 10 185613  1  2
Nicholls State            Mark Fernandez            14  6 185047  2  5
Oklahoma State            Thomas Cowley             16  4 176166  3  4

Alabama                   T.j. Large                18  6 175804  2  5
North Carolina-Asheville  Tim Johnson               21 17 175727  2  2
Yale                      Jon Hollis                10  3 174375  3  4
Tennessee                 Luke Hochevar             18 16 170016  0  8
Wofford                   Austin Redwine            15 13 169731  2  2
Southeast Missouri State  Joey Evans                21 12 169623  2  4
Loyola Marymount          Stephen Kahn              17 14 164819  2  6
Ohio                      Anthony Gressick          11  9 163990  2  3
Georgetown                Thomas Braun              19 16 161728  1  2
Savannah State            Jeremiah Fielder           8  7 158464  1  1

Arkansas                  Nick Schmidt              19  8 155897  2  3
Murray State              Billy Fares               18  6 150312  1  2
Chicago State             John Torres               13 12 149606  1  1
Norfolk State             Josh Eason                14 11 148877  1  1
Manhattan                 Chris Cody                13 10 147598  2  6
Vermont                   Derek Miller              10  9 142626  2  4
Northeastern              Adam Ottavino             14 13 142590  0  7
Western Illinois          Pat Kohorst               18 15 141683  1  3
North Carolina A&T        John Primus               14 11 140768  1  5
Saginaw Valley            Ryan Reid                  2  2 140608  1  1

Stanford                  Greg Reynolds             22 20 140608  1  1
Western Kentucky          Grady Hinchman            14 12 140371  2  2
Gardner-Webb              Brandon Martin            53 28 139314  2  2
Louisiana-Monroe          Matt Green                16 14 139163  1  4
Florida Atlantic          Mickey Storey             23 21 137691  1  2
Winthrop                  Heath Rollins             17 13 137114  1  7
Troy                      Brent Adcock              17  5 135919  2  4
Lipscomb                  Alan Tungate              10  7 135859  1  3
Buffalo                   Tony Kurtz                18 13 135395  1  1
Lipscomb                  Zack Duncan                9  6 135243  1  2

Ohio                      Derek Witt                12 10 132318  1  2
Virginia Tech             Jake Chaney               16  2 130863  1  4
Virginia Commonwealth     Harold Mozingo            15  7 128214  2  4
Oregon State              Dallas Buck               15 10 126850  2  4
Alabama                   Wade Leblanc              14  5 126717  2  5
St. Louis                 Ryan Bird                 14  9 126109  1  6
San Jose State            Branden Dewing            17 16 125003  1  3
Quinnipiac                P Egan                     3  3 125000  1  1
Virginia St               Perkinson                  1  1 125000  1  1
Yale                      Mike Mongiardini           9  2 124360  1  2

South Dakota State        Tyson Bothof              14  6 124290  2  4
Texas Christian           Sam Demel                 20  4 123850  1  2
Boston College            Joe Martinez              13 13 121608  1  4
Arkansas-Little Rock      Bennett Cromer            15 12 118285  1  4
UCLA                      Hector Ambriz             18  7 117854  1  3
Pepperdine                Kea Kometani              19  6 116407  0  6
New York Tech             Chris Perez               11  9 114633  1  3
Birmingham-Southern       Brandon Hynick            15  9 114560  1  3
George Mason              Stacen Gant               14  9 114438  1  4
New Mexico                Karsten Gaarder           20  4 113824  1  4

Wisconsin-Milwaukee       Aaron Sorenson            12 10 110916  1  3
Central Florida           Tim Bascom                16  2 109155  1  3
Jackson State             Omar Stokley              18 16 108844  1  2
Texas                     Adrian Alaniz             23  3 108744  0  4
Georgia Southern          Everett Teaford           17  6 108729  1  4
Illinois-Chicago          Ryan Zink                 21 18 108612  1  3
Utah                      Jason Price               19  9 108057  1  3
Central Michigan          Ty Dunham                 16 16 107067  0  5
Oklahoma State            Scott Richmond            25  2 106910  2  3
Siena                     Josh Burnett              11  6 106671  1  1

Grambling State           Darrell Law               14 11 106227  1  3
Virginia Commonwealth     John Leonard              16  6 105181  1  1
South Alabama             Jeramy Simmons            17 14 105059  1  4
San Diego State           Alex Hinshaw              16 13 104993  1  1
Oakland                   Aaron Hines               14 12 103831  1  1
Rice                      Joe Savery                19 13 103826  1  4
Loyola Marymount          Jeff Stevens              18 15 103294  0  4
Texas Tech                Billy Carnline            18  0 102908  1  1
Toledo                    Nick Szczur               14 13 101917  1  2
Georgia State             Romas Hicks               21 14 101131  1  2

Legend:

G -- games counted (appearance I have records for)
GE -- games estimated
PAP -- PAP score
V -- category V starts (133+ pitches)
IV -- category IV starts (121-132 pitches)

Team Listings

Here are the twenty highest staff PAP's I could find:

Team                       GC  GE     PAP  V IV

North Carolina A&T         51  41 1465765  6 12
Troy                       58  13  811817  5 15
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi   52  44  679824  6 14
Southeastern Louisiana     60  24  611738  5 14
Washington                 55  49  517799  4  8
Coppin State               50  46  452808  1  1
Alabama State              40  39  450081  2  5
Massachusetts              49  31  443321  3  9
Norfolk State              50  40  441146  4  7
Gardner-Webb               58  35  440563  4  9
Florida A&M                52  48  435254  3  6
New Mexico                 58  14  431254  3 13
Oklahoma State             59  12  412105  7 11
Grambling State            43  38  411309  4  7
South Alabama              63  50  399073  3 10
Arkansas-Pine Bluff        48  42  339159  4  8
Alabama                    63  24  338871  4 11
Brown                      42  37  334605  1  6
Louisiana-Monroe           55  49  325966  3  9
Chicago State              58  52  321422  3  4

A&T, and several others of the HBCU's, are frequent fliers on this list; the usual claim is a lack of sufficient arms in relief. Washington's spot on the list is a disappointing change; most of that comes from the one really bad start for Tim Lincecum referenced above.

In the interests of fairness to the coaching profession as a whole, here are a few PAP counts that I found admirable. It's not really a lowest list, since that would be too affected by the number of games I could find; it's just a few that I found impressive.

Team                       GC  GE     PAP  V IV

LaSalle                    49  44       0  0  0
Army                       53  50      17  0  0
Auburn                     60  10     503  0  0
Jacksonville State         60  35     764  0  0
Jacksonville               54  47    3909  0  0
Cincinnati                 55  39    4359  0  0
Northern Iowa              54  24    7993  0  0
Mount St. Mary's           45  32    9063  0  0
Texas A&M                  55  45   10901  0  1
Butler                     54  46   11176  0  0
Kent State                 53  41   11466  0  1
Miami, Florida             60  44   12392  0  0

Auburn repeats once again, with their lowest total since I've been tracking; That's interesting given the coaching change; I don't have a full explanation, but it's encouraging.

A Quick Word about the New Pitch Count Estimator

When I first came up with the pitch count estimator in 2002, I only had around 700 actual pitch counts to work with. Given that, it actually turned out pretty well -- using a much larger population of 11,000 or so counts from the 2003 and 2004 season, the correlation of the original version of the formula with the actual counts is actually almost as good as anything new that I can come up with (.9202 versus .9208, for those of you scoring at home).

Even with that confirmation, though, I'm replacing the formula, because I've found that I made it more complicated than necessary last time. It turns out that only three factors really affect accuracy -- batters faced, walks, and strikeouts, so here's the new version:

EPC = 4.70 + 2.56 * BB + 1.97 * SO + 2.84 * BF

This one has the advantage that it's simple enough to be able to approximate in your head: 5 plus 2 /12 per walk plus 2 per strikeout plus three per batter works pretty well.

News

There's a really good news article from Will Kimmey at Baseball America this week; I'll let you go read that yourself as we try to figure out what it all means.

Comprehensive Lists

Finally, thorough lists for pitchers and teams:

The pitcher list has every pitcher that accumulated either 8 starts or 100,000 PAP; the team list has every team. Each list, of course, is subject to the limitations of the data that I have. Once again, on the comprehensive lists, I'm going to do something that's different from what I normally do, because I want it to be as accurate a record as possible when I come back to it in a few years -- I will update the records if I get data on additional starts. In response to a request I've had, a list sorted by PAP is linked in from the team report.

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