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PAP 2008
Publication Date: January 17, 2009
I talked last year about how my gut was telling me that the change to lower pitch counts was coming faster in the power conferences than further down the food chain, but that I couldn't prove it to my satisfaction. Both of those are still true.
Now, on to the report. For those of you who got here since this time last year, go read at least part of this. This report is an annual part of a long-term research project where I'm tracking pitcher usage numbers for, essentially, every Division I starter along with minor league statistics over an extended period in order to check for correlations between high workload and future injury or ineffectiveness rates. There are, unavoidably, a ton of numbers here, but they matter, so let's slog on through.
The Hall of Shame
For starters, here are the worst single-game starts from NCAA pitchers last year, with the actual pitch count entries listed first and the estimated counts listed after:
Team Pitcher IP H R ER BB SO NP North Dakota State Shane Bushland 11.1 8 6 1 5 11 176 Utah Valley State Marcus Moore 8.0 9 6 3 5 6 164 Utah Valley State Bryan Smith 9.0 8 3 3 2 11 161 Savannah State Alford Arnold 6.1 11 10 10 10 5 158 Air Force Alex Truesdale 9.0 13 9 9 2 6 157 Texas-Pan American Cody Cisper 9.0 8 5 5 6 5 157 New York Tech Frank Ryan 7.0 6 8 6 7 8 155 Bucknell Matthew Wilson 9.0 6 0 0 2 3 153 Florida Atlantic Michael Obradovich 8.0 8 3 3 4 7 152 Oregon State Stutes, Mike 8.0 6 6 6 8 10 152 Akron Frank Turocy 9.0 10 7 7 4 7 152 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Ben McClarey 9.0 6 2 1 6 4 152 Marshall Steve Blevins 9.0 6 4 3 3 12 151 Texas Chance Ruffin 9.0 7 1 0 2 11 150 Team Pitcher IP H R ER BB SO NP Delaware State J. R. McAllister 8.2 8 7 5 6 15 169 Jarvis Christian Jonatha Diaz 8.0 11 10 10 9 8 166 Manhattan Dan Forman 9.0 9 5 4 7 11 166 Florida A&M Miguel Parga 9.0 9 6 4 7 7 161 Northern Iowa Tim Flattery 9.0 11 8 7 5 9 157 Edward Waters Joseph 9.0 11 10 9 5 8 155 St. Peter's Chris Innis 9.0 8 2 2 4 13 154 Mississippi Valley State D Townsend 8.1 12 6 4 4 7 154 Florida A&M Cirilo Manego 9.0 12 6 5 4 8 153 Utah Valley State Aaron Brady 9.0 6 2 2 6 8 152 Old Dominion Dan Hudson 9.0 10 4 4 5 9 152 Alcorn State F Garcia 9.0 7 6 5 6 6 151 Florida A&M Miguel Parga 9.0 8 4 4 6 9 151 Albany State Larry Johnson 9.0 7 5 2 8 4 150 Oral Roberts Michael Jarman 9.0 8 2 0 2 9 150
As always, take the estimates with a grain of salt, both up or down.
Season Totals
Here are the 100 worst season totals. I'll include a link to the the full list at the bottom.
Team Pitcher G GE PAP V IV Utah Valley State Marcus Moore 13 7 636085 5 9 Florida A&M Miguel Parga 12 10 530612 4 6 North Dakota State Shane Bushland 19 4 438976 1 1 Delaware State J. R. McAllister 13 10 400797 2 3 Savannah State Alford Arnold 11 8 357807 3 4 Old Dominion Dan Hudson 12 7 339173 3 7 Manhattan Dan Forman 9 9 321768 0 1 Jarvis Christian Jonatha Diaz 2 2 287496 1 1 Florida A&M Cirilo Manego 12 9 237020 3 3 Utah Valley State Bryan Smith 14 6 232813 1 1 Texas-Pan American Cody Cisper 10 7 231067 1 3 Indiana Tyler Tufts 13 3 229777 3 4 Air Force Alex Truesdale 21 7 227042 1 3 New York Tech Frank Ryan 13 6 211870 1 3 Marshall Steve Blevins 13 9 200585 2 3 South Carolina-Upstate Kyle Bowley 12 3 194165 3 4 Lipscomb Rex Brothers 17 9 192916 2 5 Alabama State Zeb Hilburn 7 5 191737 2 2 Southeastern Louisiana Wade Miley 15 7 191388 2 4 Old Dominion Anthony Shawler 13 9 189029 1 6 Texas State Mike Hart 15 7 187526 1 4 Northern Iowa Tim Flattery 23 7 185193 1 1 St. Bonaventure Cody Vincent 17 15 183611 3 5 North Dakota State Jake Laber 12 2 181350 2 3 Oral Roberts Michael Jarman 17 1 180908 2 2 Bucknell Matthew Wilson 8 7 179770 1 2 St. Peter's Chris Innis 13 13 177833 1 2 Edward Waters Joseph 1 1 166375 1 1 New York Tech Andrew Gurrasi 11 6 166104 1 4 Indiana Matt Bashore 14 1 163359 2 3 Utah Valley State Aaron Brady 8 5 161838 1 2 Mississippi Valley State D Townsend 5 5 157464 1 1 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Ben McClarey 13 6 156233 1 2 LaSalle Kevin Fuqua 15 13 154522 1 5 Northern Iowa Guido Fonseca 13 6 153628 2 3 Akron Frank Turocy 11 3 152410 1 1 Florida Atlantic Michael Obradovich 14 0 151299 1 2 West Virginia Morrison 8 4 150352 2 3 Stony Brook Tom Koehler 13 12 148182 2 3 Maryland-Eastern Shore Carl Huber 13 7 142442 1 3 Oregon State Stutes, Mike 1 0 140608 1 1 North Carolina-Wilmington Bradley Holt 15 2 138364 1 2 UCLA Tim Murphy 18 3 135167 1 3 Texas Chance Ruffin 23 7 133120 1 1 Alcorn State F Garcia 5 4 132651 1 1 Oral Roberts Jerry Sullivan 18 4 131922 1 5 Arizona State Mike Leake 17 11 130376 1 3 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Andy Hetebrueg 17 7 127077 1 2 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Omar Gutierrez 14 8 126621 2 2 Centenary Justin Kraft 13 7 126403 1 2 Albany State Larry Johnson 1 1 125000 1 1 Alabama A&M Kevin Collins 17 15 123665 1 4 St. Louis Dave Sever 14 12 123590 1 3 George Washington Pat Lehman 17 10 121815 1 6 Canisius Shane Davis 14 14 120530 1 1 Arkansas Justin Wells 12 6 119948 1 4 Rutgers Matt Giannini 12 6 117620 1 2 Chicago State Robert Vargas 7 4 116736 2 2 Florida Atlantic Jeff Beliveau 14 1 116496 1 4 Murray State Michal Perconte 12 2 115422 1 1 Brigham Young Jordan Muir 12 4 114930 1 3 Wichita State Aaron Shafer 16 10 108865 1 5 Pacific Mark McCain 16 3 108846 1 2 Nicholls State Bryan Myers 12 8 108505 1 4 Ohio Chris Rigo 6 3 108136 1 2 Eastern Michigan Sean Hoffman 19 7 107834 0 5 Dayton Lucas Farden 22 10 107570 1 4 Eastern Michigan Jake Stapf 12 4 105308 1 1 Virginia Tech Rhett Ballard 25 3 104297 1 3 Oral Roberts Carlos Luna 31 6 102324 1 4 Northern Illinois Matt Jernstad 12 9 102290 1 1 South Carolina-Upstate Matt Branham 11 2 101504 1 3 Campbell Justin Lilly 15 3 101501 1 5 Hofstra Rob Kumbatovic 12 8 98848 1 3 Kentucky Aaron Lovett 21 4 97336 1 1 Southern Utah Jacob Noyes 20 15 97336 1 1 Central Connecticut State John Tesseyman 11 8 95304 1 3 George Mason Dan Jaycox 12 5 94507 1 1 Maryland-Eastern Shore Brian White 11 4 93331 1 2 Savannah State Michael Allegretti 13 9 92268 1 1 Portland David Gruener 13 5 92251 1 1 Indiana State Michael Manus 15 11 92127 2 2 Dartmouth Russell Young 9 5 91299 2 2 Delaware State Jamie Friel 8 6 91125 1 1 Southern Illinois Cody Adams 14 4 89593 1 3 Siena Craig Chaput 12 6 88857 1 3 Central Michigan Eric Lawrence 10 6 88399 1 3 Fresno State Tanner Scheppers 10 2 87085 1 2 Grambling State Ronald Marshall 11 11 86922 1 1 St. Joseph's Don Werner 14 10 86806 2 2 San Diego Brian Matusz 15 15 86716 0 2 San Francisco Evan Fredrickson 14 12 86481 1 5 Texas-San Antonio Kris Ruepke 13 0 85725 1 3 Campbell Brandon Scott 15 3 85309 1 1 Coppin State Jeremiah Cothiere 12 8 84124 1 3 Arkansas-Little Rock David Klumpp 9 7 83662 1 1 UCLA Gavin Brooks 14 0 81585 1 1 Missouri State Tim Clubb 14 14 80851 0 3 Youngstown State Aaron Swenson 15 3 79096 1 3 Lipscomb Brandon McClurg 16 8 78806 0 4 Legend: G -- games counted (appearance I have records for) GE -- games estimated PAP -- PAP score V -- category V starts (133+ pitches) IV -- category IV starts (121-132 pitches)
Team Listings
Here are the twenty highest staff PAP's I could find:
Team GC GE PAP V IV Utah Valley State 50 27 1081342 7 14 Florida A&M 42 34 872257 8 14 North Dakota State 42 10 638063 3 5 Old Dominion 51 37 636556 5 17 Delaware State 43 34 576872 4 6 Indiana 58 12 514342 6 10 Savannah State 45 33 512617 4 8 Oral Roberts 60 11 475990 5 12 New York Tech 51 28 430022 2 9 Maryland-Eastern Shore 36 21 426999 3 14 Lipscomb 63 33 381530 2 14 Northern Iowa 48 19 369866 3 5 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 61 22 353144 2 6 Texas-Pan American 52 35 329329 2 6 South Carolina-Upstate 53 11 317379 4 8 Bucknell 54 48 294982 2 6 Niagara 49 26 293650 1 1 Liberty 61 36 293358 2 11 Florida Atlantic 59 3 291530 2 7 UCLA 60 11 282090 3 5
In the interests of fairness to the coaching profession as a whole, here are a few PAP counts that I found admirable. It's not really a lowest list, since that would be too affected by the number of games I could find; it's just a few that I found impressive.
Team GC GE PAP V IV Duke 44 19 1100 0 0 Creighton 57 9 1138 0 0 North Carolina-Greensboro 54 7 1331 0 0 Bowling Green State 42 10 3068 0 0 Connecticut 54 28 3347 0 0 Cornell 36 23 3590 0 0 Southern 45 40 3660 0 0 Ball State 38 19 3915 0 0 Cal State Northridge 56 47 4089 0 0 Towson 58 19 4154 0 0 New Jersey Tech 52 31 5202 0 0 Jacksonville 54 42 5246 0 0 North Carolina-Charlotte 33 21 5627 0 0 Miami, Florida 64 1 5983 0 0 Iowa 53 39 6175 0 0 Miami, Ohio 50 34 6203 0 0 Coastal Carolina 62 8 6667 0 0 High Point 49 26 6776 0 0 Eastern Kentucky 33 20 7703 0 0
Comprehensive Lists
Finally, thorough lists for pitchers and teams:
The pitcher list has every pitcher that accumulated either 8 starts or 100,000 PAP; the team list has every team. Each list, of course, is subject to the limitations of the data that I have. Once again, on the comprehensive lists, I'm going to do something that's different from what I normally do, because I want it to be as accurate a record as possible when I come back to it in a few years -- I will update the records if I get data on additional starts.
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